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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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9 hours ago, cbmclean said:

More cheerful reading.  YOu can almost hear Steve Masterson rubbing his hands together in glee as he gloats about the warmth.

 

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/this-is-february-80f-in-denver-99-in-oklahoma-66-in-iceland-

 

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/anothor-warmest-same-week-in-decades--jason-update

 

I was complaining about the 80 F temps on Sunday.  I think if it had hit 99 F I would have dropped dead.

That is impressive temp map he has...what's funny is it will only get worse as we approach end of Feb. #GW

He needs to increase his color scale.

avg-temps-2.1.17-2.12.17-800px.jpg

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19 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Heat...crazy to go from a super Nino and 12 months later we are looking at a building mod Nino.   Not sure we know how warm this globe will get the next 10-15 years.  

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

Just eyeballing that map, it looks like a 2x to 3x warm to cold anomaly ratio.  We are cooking!

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3 hours ago, BIG FROSTY said:

All I want to know is it going to snow Mack in March?? is it going to be a Big Mack March?????


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Not sure !? JB been quiet lately! All I can say is watch the March 2/3rd!! The highs are stronger, 1033 mb and such, so the cold press will be stronger ! That wedge showing up in VA, is classic! It will trend colder, the models always underestimate the strength of the cold! I've never seen snow covered roses,so I'm rooting hard for it! :)

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19 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Not sure !? JB been quiet lately! All I can say is watch the March 2/3rd!! The highs are stronger, 1033 mb and such, so the cold press will be stronger ! That wedge showing up in VA, is classic! It will trend colder, the models always underestimate the strength of the cold! I've never seen snow covered roses,so I'm rooting hard for it! :)

Sounds good to me!!! Let it SNOW!

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Obviously, this would have big implications, especially in March. Phases 1/2/3 in March:

Screen_Shot_2017_02_15_at_12_14_05_PM.pn

 

This would be much colder than Phase 7 and is in line with a wild endgame that I think is coming, though my recent bias correction would imply less than that. Hence, the idea we have that chillier weather is coming, but I can't dive all in to what situations like this are capable of . . . yet.;)

 

 

The Euro is also showing more NE high day 5/6. Makes sense more so than normal ( its bias on flipping out with eastern troughs) given a) its MJO and the deep snowcover in much of New England.

 

Author Unknown...................

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17 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

Obviously, this would have big implications, especially in March. Phases 1/2/3 in March:

Screen_Shot_2017_02_15_at_12_14_05_PM.pn

 

This would be much colder than Phase 7 and is in line with a wild endgame that I think is coming, though my recent bias correction would imply less than that. Hence, the idea we have that chillier weather is coming, but I can't dive all in to what situations like this are capable of . . . yet.;)

 

 

The Euro is also showing more NE high day 5/6. Makes sense more so than normal ( its bias on flipping out with eastern troughs) given a) its MJO and the deep snowcover in much of New England.

 

Author Unknown...................

LOL! After this winter, don't know why people long range forecast anymore

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3 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

Shoot! Lost our March 2 threat! Can't believe it! Winter cancel! :rolleyes::(

We surly will have a couple of shots at snow in March.  Can't believe how February has been and looks like it will end up warm.  Not giving up though, I think March will be a good month for snow and cold especially in the Mountains. :rolleyes:

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25 minutes ago, packbacker said:

So are we buying the JMA seasonal for the first half of March. 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/

JB is, so I am! :) 

He said winter is not over! By week 3/4 on his new favorite model, JMA , says big trough in the east, lots of cold coming to the east, and lots of moisture coming in on an active subtropical jet!! Big changes coming!! March will be wild, not mild ! Per the master long ranger! :)

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