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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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6 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

East-based -NAO is not good for us...especially in a year with a strong tendency for a SER.

And LOL at the 588 dm ridge...in JANUARY!

It is incredibly hard to buy that after the consistency of the EPS...I have zero doubt in my mind that this is an outlier/bogus run. NO way the EPS comes back with that.

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5 minutes ago, Jon said:

It is incredibly hard to buy that after the consistency of the EPS...I have zero doubt in my mind that this is an outlier/bogus run. NO way the EPS comes back with that.

It's a sucky run for sure.  My feeling is that it's overdone in terms of how strong the SER is showing up.  But, I'd tip the scale toward a solution like this (albeit, not as extreme), as has been the seasonal tendency, rather than the other direction.  The full coast to coast broad trouging hasn't worked out so far.  It always gets pushed out or morphs into a western/central trough as we get closer.  Until this paradigm changes, you have to give weight to a warmer look, IMO.

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20 minutes ago, Jon said:

It is incredibly hard to buy that after the consistency of the EPS...I have zero doubt in my mind that this is an outlier/bogus run. NO way the EPS comes back with that.

I don't think the EPS come back with that but I think it takes a step back, it almost have to with that Op run.  The 0z EPS was actually the best looking run so far, going to be hard to beat that or even equal it.  Bar has been set below...

 

Screen Shot 2016-12-29 at 2.27.05 PM.png

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Yep, not even close. Can't let an OP sway you that much. Remember the control run is the one perturbed over and over for the EPS...the OP can be an outlier with little influence on an EPS mean.

Compare this image to the one from last night that pack posted above

GTGueaq.png

 

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3 minutes ago, Wow said:

Verified.  If anything, the Greenland ridge is a hair stronger in the mean

The ATL/SE ridging is still a tick stronger, it appears. (The SE ridge actually connects to the Atlantic ridging, breaking through those low heights from the 0z in the Atlantic) Definitely not a super-ridge like the op showed, though.

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