packbacker Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 I don't know what happened but it went from this (yesterday 12z) to this today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 The cold finally gets here by Sunday on Euro, need a 2nd wave to materialize Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Gotta love the SER. What would life be like without it 24/7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Hope it's a hiccup, because that run is night and day from the previous Euro run and even the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 minute ago, NCSNOW said: Gotta love the SER. What would life be like without it 24/7 Better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 This is what happens when you lose the 50/50/NAO...quick death at least and preferable, warm rain instead of cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Not much wedging. Looks Miller Bish...too far north do do any of us any good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 7 minutes ago, packbacker said: I don't know what happened but it went from this (yesterday 12z) to this today. Now THAT is the stout ridge we'd be worried about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 East-based -NAO is not good for us...especially in a year with a strong tendency for a SER. And LOL at the 588 dm ridge...in JANUARY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Here's Brick's cold and dry at day 10: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Banana high with 1033 arcing over the great lakes into the north east has ice in CAD regions written all over it. Previous EURO had 1028 high spread out across the upper Midwest. It all still seems pretty weird and anomalous at this point. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 6 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: East-based -NAO is not good for us...especially in a year with a strong tendency for a SER. And LOL at the 588 dm ridge...in JANUARY! It is incredibly hard to buy that after the consistency of the EPS...I have zero doubt in my mind that this is an outlier/bogus run. NO way the EPS comes back with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Hopefully, the Euro ensembles will say the op is out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 20 minutes ago, packbacker said: I don't know what happened but it went from this (yesterday 12z) to this today. Threw the energy into the western wave rather than the 50/50 low. No bueno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 5 minutes ago, Jon said: It is incredibly hard to buy that after the consistency of the EPS...I have zero doubt in my mind that this is an outlier/bogus run. NO way the EPS comes back with that. It's a sucky run for sure. My feeling is that it's overdone in terms of how strong the SER is showing up. But, I'd tip the scale toward a solution like this (albeit, not as extreme), as has been the seasonal tendency, rather than the other direction. The full coast to coast broad trouging hasn't worked out so far. It always gets pushed out or morphs into a western/central trough as we get closer. Until this paradigm changes, you have to give weight to a warmer look, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 7 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Here's Brick's cold and dry at day 10: That has potential. Maybe it'll generate a heavier frost than usual and we can see if anyone remembers how to ride a sled. Lol Like Jon said when the ens paint that Bermuda hp on roids in that position and screw up the 50/50 low then I'll bite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 20 minutes ago, Jon said: It is incredibly hard to buy that after the consistency of the EPS...I have zero doubt in my mind that this is an outlier/bogus run. NO way the EPS comes back with that. I don't think the EPS come back with that but I think it takes a step back, it almost have to with that Op run. The 0z EPS was actually the best looking run so far, going to be hard to beat that or even equal it. Bar has been set below... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Trof axis is all wrong too. West coast ridge is way too far off the coast. Sadly the players are on the field but not in the right positions. It's close though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiftMania Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 I wouldn't worry much about this one Euro run. If anything the CAD is being down played and by extrapolation that would be a disaster in the making. Although it is close to the nasty CMC 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 EPS does NOT support OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Yes, looks like the Euro op was out to lunch! After Christmas hangover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Just now, Brick Tamland said: Yes, looks like the Euro op was out to lunch! After Christmas hangover. Show me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 11 minutes ago, RiftMania said: I wouldn't worry much about this one Euro run. If anything the CAD is being down played and by extrapolation that would be a disaster in the making. Although it is close to the nasty CMC 12z run. This post is a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 3 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said: EPS does NOT support OP Verified. If anything, the Greenland ridge is a hair stronger in the mean compared to 0z EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Just now, LithiaWx said: This post is a disaster. I lol'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Yep, not even close. Can't let an OP sway you that much. Remember the control run is the one perturbed over and over for the EPS...the OP can be an outlier with little influence on an EPS mean. Compare this image to the one from last night that pack posted above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 3 minutes ago, Wow said: Verified. If anything, the Greenland ridge is a hair stronger in the mean The ATL/SE ridging is still a tick stronger, it appears. (The SE ridge actually connects to the Atlantic ridging, breaking through those low heights from the 0z in the Atlantic) Definitely not a super-ridge like the op showed, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 the mean is way down this run for the SE as a whole Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 How does the ensemble mean look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 eps mean gives rdu ~1" of snow, much improved over the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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