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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017

buckeyefan1

By buckeyefan1,
in Southeastern States

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Tacoma

Tacoma

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Lookout said:

Yep..no doubt we will have an awesome pattern come late March and april. We will all be screaming where was this all winter while the 35 to 40 degree rain pours outside. 

As warm as this "winter" has been, I saw snow twice this winter...although both times it was in gainesville. Still, that is better than some years. I sure glad I was lucky enough to be there because if  not for getting that fix, snow withdrawal symptoms would be pretty severe by now...with all this warm weather making it worse. 

Still depressing though when you see what is going on in Maine today..where 2 to 4 inch per hour rates and  3 foot totals possible in some areas.....and this is on the heels of a couple of other systems.  In fact, it's been snowing non stop for 4 days in some areas there. I know its not mysterious as to why but it Just always amazes me how little it takes to get snow up there there while down here there has to be 13448 things line up just right and even then it doesnt work out a good bit of the time. 

The overall lack of cold air in general though over north America and how persistent it's been is alarming though. It blows my mind how widespread the extreme warmth is. 

Same here, it snows up there at nothing and here your more likely to hit the lottery and that's pushing it, JUST AMAZING HOW THAT WORKS.

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oconeexman

oconeexman

Posted
Posted
16 hours ago, Lookout said:

Yep..no doubt we will have an awesome pattern come late March and april. We will all be screaming where was this all winter while the 35 to 40 degree rain pours outside. 

As warm as this "winter" has been, I saw snow twice this winter...although both times it was in gainesville. Still, that is better than some years. I sure glad I was lucky enough to be there because if  not for getting that fix, snow withdrawal symptoms would be pretty severe by now...with all this warm weather making it worse. 

Still depressing though when you see what is going on in Maine today..where 2 to 4 inch per hour rates and  3 foot totals possible in some areas.....and this is on the heels of a couple of other systems.  In fact, it's been snowing non stop for 4 days in some areas there. I know its not mysterious as to why but it Just always amazes me how little it takes to get snow up there there while down here there has to be 13448 things line up just right and even then it doesnt work out a good bit of the time. 

The overall lack of cold air in general though over north America and how persistent it's been is alarming though. It blows my mind how widespread the extreme warmth is. 

Whats crazy is if you look long ramge they will probably endure at least 2 more noreasters before Feb ends. 

One of the biggest changes in the weather doen here over the last 5 years to me is the lack of blocking and CAD. Weve mentioned it the last couple of winters but we dont get stout 2 day wedges anymore that cant get blown away by a gulf system. Now even when everything lines up and everybody holds their mouth right theres always a warm nose to wreck a sections dreams. Im not sure if its global warming or whats the reasoning but winter weather down south is definitely different than when i was a kid. The 70's and 80's were way colder and snowier down here. But for the last 2.5 decades it has overall went the opposite direction. It is alarming to say the least.

I keep telling myself that we had more snow than chicago and it helps ease the pain though!

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Tacoma

Tacoma

Posted
Posted
17 hours ago, Lookout said:

Yep..no doubt we will have an awesome pattern come late March and april. We will all be screaming where was this all winter while the 35 to 40 degree rain pours outside. 

As warm as this "winter" has been, I saw snow twice this winter...although both times it was in gainesville. Still, that is better than some years. I sure glad I was lucky enough to be there because if  not for getting that fix, snow withdrawal symptoms would be pretty severe by now...with all this warm weather making it worse. 

Still depressing though when you see what is going on in Maine today..where 2 to 4 inch per hour rates and  3 foot totals possible in some areas.....and this is on the heels of a couple of other systems.  In fact, it's been snowing non stop for 4 days in some areas there. I know its not mysterious as to why but it Just always amazes me how little it takes to get snow up there there while down here there has to be 13448 things line up just right and even then it doesnt work out a good bit of the time. 

The overall lack of cold air in general though over north America and how persistent it's been is alarming though. It blows my mind how widespread the extreme warmth is. 

Yep I wish it was the opposite, lots of cold around and hardly any warm to find. 

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

JB is now talking about a cold March. He is even bringing up 93 as a comparison.

I actually would not be surprised to see a cold spring. We're currently in a long string of above normal months and I could see March, April, or even May being below normal.

Yep, just read that ! Said the 500 mb pattern setting up to look like March 12-16th, 1993! Lol! Big Frosty? What's up with that? 

He also had another post on how the pattern now looks like the pattern heading into March 1960, but with completely different results!! Yeah, duh, we get a March 1960 look and still stay 10-20 degrees above average! :(

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

This is almost funny:

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...

...Another mild/warm stretch coming up...

Potent vortex over New England and associated deep upper level
trough extending down the Eastern Seaboard will lift quickly
northeast into the Canadian Maritimes Thursday-Thursday night.
Strong height rises will ensue in response to another southern
stream upper trough/closed low progressing east-northeastward
through the south central US. This means that once again central NC
will experience a brief stint of cool-seasonable temperatures
Thursday and Thursday night with a rapid warm-up with highs well
into the 60s and lower 70s over the weekend.

Aforementioned southern stream trough will approach the area late
Saturday afternoon and is positioned to move through the area
Saturday night/Sunday morning. Much like the system moving through
the area on Wednesday, a weak sfc low will accompany the southern
stream upper trough, and it too is forecast to stay south and east
of the area. Given the progressive nature of this system, rainfall
amounts will be light and generally confined to overnight Saturday
night.

Within the split flow pattern in place, the southern stream is
forecast to remain active with medium range models indicating a
vigorous/energetic Pacific storm system to move onshore over
California and the Desert Southwest. As this system advances inland
into the Central Plains, ridging aloft builds over the region with
low-level southerly return flow allowing the mild temperatures in
the lower 70s to continue through early next week.
 

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mrdaddyman

mrdaddyman

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

JB is now talking about a cold March. He is even bringing up 93 as a comparison.

I actually would not be surprised to see a cold spring. We're currently in a long string of above normal months and I could see March, April, or even May being below normal.

If he keeps claiming cold for long enough it will eventually verify. But yeah, we'll have a raging -NAO and 40 degree rain in April.

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BIG FROSTY

BIG FROSTY

Posted
Posted
Yep, just read that ! Said the 500 mb pattern setting up to look like March 12-16th, 1993! Lol! Big Frosty? What's up with that? 

He also had another post on how the pattern now looks like the pattern heading into March 1960, but with completely different results!! Yeah, duh, we get a March 1960 look and still stay 10-20 degrees above average!


Nothing Eye opening yet!! Lol. The way I understood it looks like a 1960 pattern with totally different results! which means nada winter wise. You can bet on Cold spring rain and 40° like some been saying we won't be above normal every month been in a string of them so it's time for the pattern change only problem is just too late for the Southeast. Surprising huh!!!


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Northern Foothills Snowman

Northern Foothills Snowman

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:


Nothing Eye opening yet!! Lol. The way I understood it looks like a 1960 pattern with totally different results! which means nada winter wise. You can bet on Cold spring rain and 40° like some been saying we won't be above normal every month been in a string of them so it's time for the pattern change only problem is just too late for the Southeast. Surprising huh!!!


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Wouldn't at all be surprised to see fruit trees bud out then a killing frost. 

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Northern Foothills Snowman

Northern Foothills Snowman

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

I'm not at all expecting it but I certainly would not be surprised if a lot of us see a decent snow before April


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Last time I remember one it was April 3rd 1994. Snowed all day. Had 2-3 inches but just in grass and trees. Roads were fine. 

Only reason I remember was it was my dads burthday. 

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BIG FROSTY

BIG FROSTY

Posted
Posted
Last time I remember one it was April 3rd 1994. Snowed all day. Had 2-3 inches but just in grass and trees. Roads were fine. 

Only reason I remember was it was my dads burthday. 


Yep I remember that storm I was in Mt. Airy that day it was snowing silver dollar size flakes


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kvegas-wx

kvegas-wx

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Where have we seen this before...GOA ridge, west coast trough and SER.

 

500h_anom.na.png

 

This map is giving me stress just looking at it.  I'd prefer we focus where there are no MB lines, like the equator.  I mean seriously, do people that live around the equator even have weather?  Or do they just laugh at people like us that stress over MBs, ridges and troughs, Miller A's vs B's, and where the polar vortex is going to be next Friday?  I mean really, how bad would it suck to wake up to 86 and sunny 360 days per year?

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Daniel Boone

Daniel Boone

Posted
Posted

The previous n.pac ridges you spoke of pack were centered a little further west over the aleutians. So, the goa ridge being shown is better for possible troughiness in the east. That undercutting pac jet is the thing thats shunting the ridge into the plains and trough in the east further eastward imo. Too bad theres not blocking as that would be a decent setup as western lp would be forced se and under.

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted
Just now, Daniel Boone said:

The previous n.pac ridges you spoke of pack were centered a little further west over the aleutians. So, the goa ridge being shown is better for possible troughiness in the east. That undercutting pac jet is the thing thats shunting the ridge into the plains and trough in the east further eastward imo.

Would need a -NAO to lower heights in the east even with the pac ridge further east.  But it's still in GOA and would need it splitting the coast with +NAO.  -EPO is nice to see if you live in the west.

compday.RkfeBXD6U4.gif

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Think he's been wrong a lot this winter, so expect minimal changes in the Pacific

The problem with this inference is that as spring approaches, the pattern becomes more likely to change.  We'll get into a favorable winter pattern at that time.  The result will be continuous wedging with many cloudy days with drizzle and temps in the 40s, while folks south and west of the Apps get severe storms.  That will break down in time for an exceptionally hot and humid summer.

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

The problem with this inference is that as spring approaches, the pattern becomes more likely to change.  We'll get into a favorable winter pattern at that time.  The result will be continuous wedging with many cloudy days with drizzle and temps in the 40s, while folks south and west of the Apps get severe storms.  That will break down in time for an exceptionally hot and humid summer.

Do you have a pay sight!? I'd like to sign up! This is exactly how spring will go! I love those April days, nice and cloudy, drizzly, winds ripping out of NE @ 15-30 mph, temp 42 at midnight, dropping into upper 30s through the day! Good gardening weather!

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