FallsLake Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: Remember when I told you that this system most likely wouldn't be suppressed and that the precip shield would "expand" farther north as we got closer? Also, the NE vortex isn't nearly as consolidated and as far SW as it initially looked like (what a shock), which allows the system to not be suppressed...but it also keeps the cold air away. It also doesn't help that the system moved in faster than it initially looked like. Even had it come in slower, the cold would still have been marginal. You nailed it CR. A few days back it looked like the cold would be no problem and all we needed was the precip / storm to end up more northward. We got the storm more northward but we now have the above map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 1 hour ago, FallsLake said: You nailed it CR. A few days back it looked like the cold would be no problem and all we needed was the precip / storm to end up more northward. We got the storm more northward but we now have the above map. You know the mtns. of nc are very close to getting some snow wednesday evening, this is very close and could trend even colder than it already has. temps for this time frame keep dropping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 How close is the cold air, currently? How much of a "drop" do we need? And is it even realistic? I don't see a big cold sourc.e Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, fritschy said: You know the mtns. of nc are very close to getting some snow wednesday evening, this is very close and could trend even colder than it already has. temps for this time frame keep dropping. 12z NAM does show snow for the mountains. Hopefully you guys can score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 1 hour ago, Cold Rain said: And here is your wind map. Could be a little windy and rainy in CA...just what they don't need with the spillway crisis unfolding there. Should something similar to this unfold, we'll be looking at a fairly large severe weather outbreak somewhere in the south and east: Thanks WeatherWebber! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 7 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: How close is the cold air, currently? How much of a "drop" do we need? And is it even realistic? I don't see a big cold sourc.e 25 degrees or more! My high on wed is forecast At 62 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 Impressive...peak climo for snow and bulk of SE is +9F and central/eastern NC is dry. Atleast we win at something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 1 hour ago, FallsLake said: Winter storm wise, I'm with you. The January storm was nice for my location. But, it was so warm otherwise that I cannot give it a passing score. If we'd just been average (temp wise) I would have giving it a C- with the one storm. Maybe I'll be able to revise my thoughts in the next few weeks, but as of right now it's looking doubtful. For me this was winter was a B+. We got snow, 0.5", in January, and other then that it was warm/dry. Cold/snowy would have been "A" winter but next best is warm/dry. I have a feeling we are going to have a lot more B+ winters moving forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 10 minutes ago, packbacker said: Impressive...peak climo for snow and bulk of SE is +9F and central/eastern NC is dry. Atleast we win at something. If we keep having winters like this the "Normal" will eventually be 10 degrees warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, mrdaddyman said: If we keep having winters like this the "Normal" will eventually be 10 degrees warmer. Yep...come 2020-2021 our new 30 year averages will be out, our seasonal snowfall avg will drop to below 5" by then and these temp departures will be less dramatic depending on how much we warm the next 10-20 years. Posted on this yesterday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, packbacker said: Yep...come 2020-2021 our new 30 year averages will be out, our seasonal snowfall avg will drop to below 5" by then and these temp departures will be less dramatic depending on how much we warm the next 10-20 years. Posted on this yesterday... Won't it be 2021-2022 ? I think the 30 year averages will be from 1991-2020 so i'm guessing the new averages won't be out until 2021 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 Just now, Snowless in Carrollton said: Won't it be 2021-2022 ? I think the 30 year averages will be from 1991-2020 so i'm guessing the new averages won't be out until 2021 ? You are probably right, I wasn't 100% sure when those get updated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 7 minutes ago, packbacker said: Yep...come 2020-2021 our new 30 year averages will be out, our seasonal snowfall avg will drop to below 5" by then and these temp departures will be less dramatic depending on how much we warm the next 10-20 years. Posted on this yesterday... Climate patterns run in (long term) cycles and you would have to assume we're due for some colder/snowier times in the near future. But of course that's keeping climate change out of the discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 44 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Thanks WeatherWebber! He has made a few really, really good posts about this. I was posting wind maps way before him, though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 26 minutes ago, packbacker said: For me this was winter was a B+. We got snow, 0.5", in January, and other then that it was warm/dry. Cold/snowy would have been "A" winter but next best is warm/dry. I have a feeling we are going to have a lot more B+ winters moving forward. Hahaha you are so full of it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 48 minutes ago, FallsLake said: 12z NAM does show snow for the mountains. Hopefully you guys can score. And there's my narrow stripe of 2-6 inches of snow in the climo favored area!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Climate patterns run in (long term) cycles and you would have to assume we're due for some colder/snowier times in the near future. But of course that's keeping climate change out of the discussion. I really do worry that climate change will make snow literally impossible along the I-20 corridor. Is it just a coincidence that Atlanta has seen little to no snow in 5 out of the last 6 winters ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 46 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Climate patterns run in (long term) cycles and you would have to assume we're due for some colder/snowier times in the near future. But of course that's keeping climate change out of the discussion. We will probably see a lull in the warming of the globe sometime in the 2020's but I have doubts we ever go back to where temps were during our snowy times. But, we will see in about 10-15 years if we have reverted back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 47 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Hahaha you are so full of it! Ok...maybe a B-. That big snow bust did sting and should knock it down a little. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 One good thing from the Wed deal is some nice rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 6 hours ago, BIG FROSTY said: I still say it will be a late Spring, Meaning March maybe early April will end up below average with lots of cold rains in CAD areas, severe elsewhere in the SE... Then cold shot behind each system just enough to freeze folks fruit crops........ We'll be wishing for it to warm up when it suppose to be warm. So we can catch a carp and play some golf....... lol. I am a very Disgruntled Snowman this morning, I'm having a Meltdown......... Yep..no doubt we will have an awesome pattern come late March and april. We will all be screaming where was this all winter while the 35 to 40 degree rain pours outside. 6 hours ago, POWERSTROKE said: We still made our average so no complaints here. Yes I will take another but if not crank up the mowers and lets go As warm as this "winter" has been, I saw snow twice this winter...although both times it was in gainesville. Still, that is better than some years. I sure glad I was lucky enough to be there because if not for getting that fix, snow withdrawal symptoms would be pretty severe by now...with all this warm weather making it worse. Still depressing though when you see what is going on in Maine today..where 2 to 4 inch per hour rates and 3 foot totals possible in some areas.....and this is on the heels of a couple of other systems. In fact, it's been snowing non stop for 4 days in some areas there. I know its not mysterious as to why but it Just always amazes me how little it takes to get snow up there there while down here there has to be 13448 things line up just right and even then it doesnt work out a good bit of the time. The overall lack of cold air in general though over north America and how persistent it's been is alarming though. It blows my mind how widespread the extreme warmth is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 18 minutes ago, packbacker said: One good thing from the Wed deal is some nice rains. Lol, unless you live in Atlanta or Athens where apparently there won't be hardly any rain at all ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 20 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Lol, unless you live in Atlanta or Athens where apparently there won't be hardly any rain at all ? Will be plenty of rain/wind/thunder/lightening day 7-10. Oh yeah...and warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 You can't help but wonder what the severe weather season will be like as it shapes up here over the next 30 days. We've obviously had persistent warmth with a near steady stream of fairly vigorous system traversing the gulf coast. All it's gonna take in this pattern is for the gulf to open up and we could be looking at a pretty consistent severe weather threat through March as systems start to tap into the building warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 21 minutes ago, audioguy3107 said: You can't help but wonder what the severe weather season will be like as it shapes up here over the next 30 days. We've obviously had persistent warmth with a near steady stream of fairly vigorous system traversing the gulf coast. All it's gonna take in this pattern is for the gulf to open up and we could be looking at a pretty consistent severe weather threat through March as systems start to tap into the building warmth. I believe it will be very non-eventful severe season in the western Carolinas, due to cool and wedging. It can't stay 25-30 degrees above normal for ever! We will get our usual-NAO in mid-March and into April! Now, the gulf coastal areas, or Dixie Alley, might have a rough and early start to the season, if the STJ stays active! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: I believe it will be very non-eventful severe season in the western Carolinas, due to cool and wedging. It can't stay 25-30 degrees above normal for ever! We will get our usual-NAO in mid-March and into April! Now, the gulf coastal areas, or Dixie Alley, might have a rough and early start to the season, if the STJ stays active! Anyone wanting to see who's getting snow look at Telluride live web cam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 1 hour ago, Lookout said: Yep..no doubt we will have an awesome pattern come late March and april. We will all be screaming where was this all winter while the 35 to 40 degree rain pours outside. As warm as this "winter" has been, I saw snow twice this winter...although both times it was in gainesville. Still, that is better than some years. I sure glad I was lucky enough to be there because if not for getting that fix, snow withdrawal symptoms would be pretty severe by now...with all this warm weather making it worse. Still depressing though when you see what is going on in Maine today..where 2 to 4 inch per hour rates and 3 foot totals possible in some areas.....and this is on the heels of a couple of other systems. In fact, it's been snowing non stop for 4 days in some areas there. I know its not mysterious as to why but it Just always amazes me how little it takes to get snow up there there while down here there has to be 13448 things line up just right and even then it doesnt work out a good bit of the time. The overall lack of cold air in general though over north America and how persistent it's been is alarming though. It blows my mind how widespread the extreme warmth is. Agree 1000% Lookout! It's just astounding to me how warm February has turned out!!!!!!! I never would've believed it would have been this bad. Now we got wait at least 9 months of boring weather before we can even dream of a snowflake! Unless you like severe? I don't like it................. I'm winter weather man, that's it!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 39 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: Unless you like severe? or daily thunderstorms ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: I believe it will be very non-eventful severe season in the western Carolinas, due to cool and wedging. It can't stay 25-30 degrees above normal for ever! We will get our usual-NAO in mid-March and into April! Now, the gulf coastal areas, or Dixie Alley, might have a rough and early start to the season, if the STJ stays active! Right. We will having a raging -NAO with 40 degrees and a heavy cold rain in the middle of April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 14 minutes ago, mrdaddyman said: Right. We will having a raging -NAO with 40 degrees and a heavy cold rain in the middle of April. don't tell him you said that ... LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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