mackerel_sky Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: Yep, it phased! I spoke to soon. This is what that looks like. Why do I do this to myself? Isn't euro supposedly phase happy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 1 minute ago, frazdaddy said: Sadly I think you will be right. We're still what, 5-6 days out? I'd rather not see the speed increase by 6 hours each run. It'll be too warm. We have a variety of energy in the flow, so no model has much of a handle on this yet. The pieces are on the board, but we still don't know very much at this point other than at least we're in the game. Given the amount of time till zero hour, I'm ok with where things stand. In some ways, it's actually good to see a solution that shows a big storm, given all the suppressed looks we're seeing. It shows the volatility of the pattern and serves as a marker to let us know that we're still in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: Yep, it phased! I spoke to soon. This is what that looks like. Why do I do this to myself? Looks like apps runner? Either way, that's not a winning low location! Maybe it'll trend farther south tomorrow, the shortwaves havnt been sampled yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 I guess would be interesting to see what the EPS shows for a range of events. My guess is temps will be the big issue here (per usual). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 6 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: How does the euro look for southern va? Rain to Snow? yep, rain to snow in danville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 SW cutoffs play havoc with models. We are going to see a variety of solutions over the weekend. Remember, ensembles are all suppressed so the euro solution while plausible is unlikely at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: yep, rain to snow in danville Thank you Grit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Euro from twitter...need the ULL over the boot and the NS way down in northern GA, at the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Para for 02/25 seems like every weekend in feb. Shows something then goes poof... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 42 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said: That's a monster at day 6,someone would get hammered by that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthWake33 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 A mix of euro and gfs would be a good solution for a lot of us imo. At 120 hrs they are fairly similar to one another. GFS was about 50 miles further south with the southern wave and the high pressure was slightly stronger. Beyond 120hrs the euro has a strong phase while the gfs keeps the streams separate. Is the euro biased toward phasing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Gefs and GFS para have a big storm at end of runs in south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Dollars to donuts says this is a MA/NE snow storm. Just my opinion, but too much has to go right for us and there is little ensemble support for a SE snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Poimen said: Dollars to donuts says this is a MA/NE snow storm. Just my opinion, but too much has to go right for us and there is little ensemble support for a SE snow. It's never good when the NE folks on twitter start getting the football ready to spike on this threat, LOL. They had the blizzard yesterday, nice clipper tonight, potential blizzard on Monday and now this day 6 threat. Would be a good time to spend the next week in Boston... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Just now, packbacker said: It's never good when the NE folks on twitter start getting the football ready to spike on this threat, LOL. They had the blizzard yesterday, nice clipper tonight, potential blizzard on Monday and now this day 6 threat. Would be a good time to spend the next week in Boston... Plus they won the Super Bowl. Why does God hate us so much ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Plus they won the Super Bowl. Why does God hate us so much ? When they are shoveling all that snow we will be outside basking in the 70's playing frisbee golf....sucks to be them. :-) http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf&p=850t_anom&rh=2017021012&fh=216&r=conus&dpdt= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 AO will be strongly negative around the 15th-16th PNA will be strongly positive around the 15th-16th MJO will be strongly into phase 8 around the 15th-16th NAO will be slightly negative around the 15th-16th Indicies are there if these forecasts hold up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 1 minute ago, NC_hailstorm said: AO will be strongly negative around the 15th-16th PNA will be strongly positive around the 15th-16th MJO will be strongly into phase 8 around the 15th-16th NAO will be slightly negative around the 15th-16th Indicies are there if these forecasts hold up. It would be nice to have the EPO negative as well. Looks to be +1 around that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 1 hour ago, Cold Rain said: Yep...everybody wants a phase, but I don't think we know what we're really asking for. A phase is nice and all, but it usually happens a little too far west for most to enjoy snow. We need a phase over NE FL! This!!!! I would rather get a late phase of course but a no phase/weaker over runner is great I will take my 3-4" to the bank with a smile..... versus rolling the dice on a all or nothing footer.....cause the odds are we get burned and the interior gets hammered again.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Euro Ens Mean looks like a blend between the GFS and the Euro. It trended west with the northern stream diving down, but it doesn't have the inland running sfc low look like the Op. I'd say it looks pretty good for the N Mtns or NW NC into SW VA. Otherwise, too warm elsewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 8 minutes ago, griteater said: Euro Ens Mean looks like a blend between the GFS and the Euro. It trended west with the northern stream diving down, but it doesn't have the inland running sfc low look like the Op. I'd say it looks pretty good for the N Mtns or NW NC into SW VA. Otherwise, too warm elsewhere From today's runs it looks like the chances for something in the east day 5-7 have gone up and potentially a big storm which would favor your typical climo areas for big coastals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 wait didn't the 12z gfs op still show a seriously suppressed storm down in Florida someplace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Does the 12z EPS show a good run? Is it similar to OP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 1 hour ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Plus they won the Super Bowl. Why does God hate us so much ? Most of us southerners want snow but rarely have the sanity to deal with it for 2+ days. Lol. 4 threats in 7 days, all they while we get 70's and sunshine. God does love us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: EPS to warm to fast. Storm is gone before cold gets here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 27 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: Storm is gone before cold gets here The storm is probably bringing some of that wrap around cold too, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 18z GFS looks about identical to the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 sw will come ashore tomorrow, still a great look at this juncture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 To me it looks like if anyone outside of the mountains in the SE want a good storm, we do need to pull for a late phase. No model shows a strong high to our north, so we will need a dynamic storm with high rates to overcome a warm surface. A southerly overrunning won't cut it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Out in fantasy land but check out what the GFS is showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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