Cold Rain Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 13 minutes ago, No snow for you said: Is the bathtub finally sloshing? I don't think there's any water left in the tub at this point! 8 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: Ok CR if you're right...you not only start the thread, you start all threads next year. You're prognostication will have earned you that distinct honor. I think we're about at day 6 at this point though aren't we? If there's enough cold north of 85 though I'd be surprised, once it turns north. Lol what happened to stonecoldweatheraustin?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 25 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: Well yeah I guess. IMO the only way it comes north is because the vortex 50/50 eases up (I'm so tired of waiting for phases, nothing ever phases anymore, it's not phasing). Vortex eases up then so does our cold. Either way we get no snow. Still like the last week in February though. Looks like a nice little storm signal on the GEFS. Still need to see if we can get cold air though. I think they had a good phase yesterday! But WE don't get phases, for sure! I guess I'm rooting for NW trend, we need the rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: I don't think there's any water left in the tub at this point! Lol what happened to stonecoldweatheraustin?? The bathtub sloshed for his money spot! I think NYC/BOS got sloshed yesterday and more to come for BOS atleast, and our storm, will probably give them a HECS again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 I think the 18z para from yesterday, is more north with our storm, but it's stuck on TT, a day or two before it gets to us and is warmer! Can't wait to see the icon model! There should be more discussion in the garden thread as opposed to here, caus 80 on Sunday is gonna be great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 I remember back in late Jan we thought the first half of Feb would be BN...well after this weekend we will be approaching +10F for the first half of Feb. The last 10 days of Feb will be solidly AN, just saw the EPS on twitter and it looks really warm. But, severe weather may perk up so maybe that should be our new hobby. Raleigh will go another winter without a 10" season, which will be season 13, almost twice as long as previous long which only happened once in previous 130 years I think. So, since 2004 we have one 6" event and no 10" seasons. We used to average 3 of each every 10 years. Safe to say those winters are over, this isn't a feel sorry for us moment, just facts now. I actually feel lucky with the 0.5" of snow we did get, we should really appreciate events like that going forward. Well its pre-emergent weekend, going to be great outside Still holding out hope to see some flakes for the day 6-7 deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 1 hour ago, SnowNiner said: Well yeah I guess. IMO the only way it comes north is because the vortex 50/50 eases up (I'm so tired of waiting for phases, nothing ever phases anymore, it's not phasing). Vortex eases up then so does our cold. Either way we get no snow. Still like the last week in February though. Looks like a nice little storm signal on the GEFS. Still need to see if we can get cold air though. This is the trouble, we are always 7-10 days out, last week we were suppose to have a storm, next week we were suppose to have a snow storm or at least a good chance and now we're liking the last week in February, we just keep going on and on and none of the storms never pan out, hell this is winter time where is the cold air anyway, we're running out of time and ten days then another ten days we're soon be in to spring, about to give up on this winter and I never thought this winter would be worse than last but it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 12z GFS looks mildly entertaining, H5, 120hrs. Note that piece of energy on the northern streaming coming down through MT/WY, that just appeared in recent runs. We are going to news atleast some interactions of the streams to lift the SLP north imo, given there is limited means to amplify the southern stream shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 GFS run was better. It seems to be holding on to the strength of the TX wave a little longer each model run. This run is really close. Flex the diving northern stream back to the west just a touch and you have a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Just now, griteater said: GFS run was better. It seems to be holding on to the strength of the TX wave a little longer each model run. This run is really close. Flex the diving northern stream back to the west just a touch and you have a snowstorm. Yep...maybe to close at day 6 :-) That ull is a hair stronger and NS a hair west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 I am fine with this central FL track for the next day or two, would like to see the Euro on board and some ensemble hits to show there is enough variability in the setup for potential hit. Ensembles up until this point have been anemic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: Yep...maybe to close at day 6 :-) That ull is a hair stronger and NS a hair west. Funny, we already have to fret the north climb...ha. Hard to get fully on board with this setup, but we got a shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Just now, griteater said: Funny, we already have to fret the north climb...ha. Hard to get fully on board with this setup, but we got a shot Is the Euro remotely close to this? Looking at the GEFS members most show a suppressed gulf low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 This is what the Euro had for the NE blizzard yesterday 6 days out compared to what verified. Lots that's points to supression but... Euro shifted several hundred miles even inside day 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 1 minute ago, WeatherNC said: I am fine with this central FL track for the next day or two, would like to see the Euro on board and some ensemble hits to show there is enough variability in the setup for potential hit. Ensembles up until this point have been anemic. Yeah agree. I think the thing that interests me the most with that run is the TX wave being a little deeper/stronger. The northern stream has to press hard to the south just to get it cold enough, so we need the TX wave to hold its own there to get cold+storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Looks like the GFS, CMC, and UKMet are similar with the 12z run....sfc low across N or C FL with precip close to getting into the cold air (I'm guessing a bit with UKMet based on h5 panels that are 24hrs apart) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 GEFS had a clue at day 4 but wasn't close at day 5-6. So...hopefully come Sunday 12z runs we see ensembles jump on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 8 minutes ago, griteater said: Yeah agree. I think the thing that interests me the most with that run is the TX wave being a little deeper/stronger. The northern stream has to press hard to the south just to get it cold enough, so we need the TX wave to hold its own there to get cold+storm It will happen. Almost always does. Re: the northern stream....it probably won't press as hard as it looks like now. That's why I'm concerned about temps. Unless we do get a phase, which is possible (we're dealing with a lot of pieces of energy, some of which are just now showing up and are probably still very poorly modeled), I would expect a narrow snow zone on the northern side. All of this is assuming that the SW/ULL will hold longer and be stronger and the northern stream won't press as hard as the GFS shows. I really do expect to start seeing some runs in the next couple of days where some snow shows up somewhere. Probably will be in northern SC first and work north from there. This looks like a 3-6" setup for the lucky zone. If we get a phase, then things change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 This is your storm CR if it were to happen...no doubt about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Ukie looks real good at 120,1005 low just south of Mobile,Al with plenty of cold air in the upper SE. Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 16 minutes ago, griteater said: This is your storm CR if it were to happen...no doubt about it Congrats Wow, Grit, NC Hailstorm, Big Frosty, and FRANKLIN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Just now, Cold Rain said: Congrats Wow, Grit, NC Hailstorm, and Big Frosty. Why did you leave me out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Why did you leave me out? Terrible oversite. Fixed. Sorry man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Terrible oversite. Fixed. Sorry man. What about me? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: What about me? lol How about this: Congrats everybody north and west of me and Pack! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: How about this: Congrats everybody north and west of me and Pack! Lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 This jibber jabber sounds just like the last storm we tracked , lots of ifs, phases, buts , maybes, and then ends up congrats NE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 8 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: How about this: Congrats everybody north and west of me and Pack! Lol! Maybe not... maybe we can get a big one for everybody!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 12z GEFS says "what snow?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 13 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: How about this: Congrats everybody north and west of me and Pack! It could be...north/south/east/west of us. Miller B w/transfer right over us. Happens quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, ajr said: 12z GEFS says "what snow?" Good...last thing we want past day 4 is models to show snow. SLP spread looks good day 5-6 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.