Cold Rain Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Excellent run! Near perfect! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Yep that's what we need, middle right now.... Cold keeps looking better every run. I think someone in the Se will cash in with this one... Long ways to go yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Can't wait to see the trailing northern vort that will phase with our cutoff low and send it up I-95!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Excellent run! Near perfect! CR, how do we hang on to the cold when this thing comes NW? The probable thing in my mind that will happen is the vortex will be faster to move out or moves in further north and the storm comes north. But that's the cold air feed. Just wondering what the path to score with this one would be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 11 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Excellent run! Near perfect! If this keeps up, Pack is going to be forced to renew his weather subscriptions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 26 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Excellent run! Near perfect! 13 minutes ago, griteater said: If this keeps up, Pack is going to be forced to renew his weather subscriptions I guess a slp crossing Boca at day 7 is good.... Euro has it SE of Boston at the same time. Talk about model consensus...we want chaos until inside day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 If Euro comes South, on like donkey kong! Tonight! Ob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 I guess I'm wondering how ya'll are excited about the 18z gfs... it just doesn't look like much... I know I know its still a ways to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 22 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: CR, how do we hang on to the cold when this thing comes NW? The probable thing in my mind that will happen is the vortex will be faster to move out or moves in further north and the storm comes north. But that's the cold air feed. Just wondering what the path to score with this one would be? Oh don't kid yourself. This was always going to be a perfect timing thing to have a shot. It's one of those situations where you walk a fine line between the cold press and dry and less press and rain. If we assume the ULL comes out and doesn't get squashed completely, which I think is likely, then based on past experience, we should assume it will remain stronger than the models indicate at D8. We should also assume that there will be more precip on the north side than shown at D8. That's where will will find the lucky snow stripe. All of that is assuming no phase. If we get a full phase, we will get a stronger, farther north storm. The snow for the lucky zone will be robust. Like I said earlier, given no Arctic air mass invading and no deep snow pack to our NW, cold air is likely to be marginally cold enough in the north sections of the storm. I want it to stay suppressed until about an hour out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 12z JMA is firmly in the GFS/Ukmet camp... with the low pressure crossing central Florida on day 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Looks like there are potentially a few GEFS members with snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 1 hour ago, ajr said: Looks like there are potentially a few GEFS members with snow Looks pretty paltry to me: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Alchemist Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 20 minutes ago, mrdaddyman said: Looks pretty paltry to me: I'm all in... "Alex I'll take e2 for the win" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 "Alex, I'll take e20 with a shift of S-SE of 180 miles." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 38 minutes ago, mrdaddyman said: Looks pretty paltry to me: Looks better than rain and thunderstorms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 This upcoming day 4 blizzard for the NE sure turns into heck of a 50/50. Supression... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Canadian and GFS both take the Low off the coast of FL, and then OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 6z = continued suppression! Gonna need a lot of NW trends! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 While the Euro bombs out a hurricane in the Atlantic, but is too far north and phases a little late for us. Looking more like one of those situations again that just can't trend better for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 55 minutes ago, Jonesing for a chase said: While the Euro bombs out a hurricane in the Atlantic, but is too far north and phases a little late for us. Looking more like one of those situations again that just can't trend better for us. Lol wut? Give it time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 21 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Lol wut? Give it time. Apparently there were some that missed yesterdays posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 I'm not giving up on it CR, I see intriguing potential with this, guess I'm trying to jinx it. Slow down the storm on the Euro and oh boy. One of those all or nothing storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 49 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Lol wut? Give it time. This ones dead! Nothing in our favor. Even if it does come north, it'll be too warm! Fun winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Just now, mackerel_sky said: This ones dead! Nothing in our favor. Even if it does come north, it'll be too warm! Fun winter! Yep. Nice setup but no cold air source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: This ones dead! Nothing in our favor. Even if it does come north, it'll be too warm! Fun winter! Well yeah I guess. IMO the only way it comes north is because the vortex 50/50 eases up (I'm so tired of waiting for phases, nothing ever phases anymore, it's not phasing). Vortex eases up then so does our cold. Either way we get no snow. Still like the last week in February though. Looks like a nice little storm signal on the GEFS. Still need to see if we can get cold air though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 We're still days away. Suppression is good right now. Say it with me. Suppression is good right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 GEFS still looking about the same in the LR. GEPS generally agrees. Has the EPS come around yet? Other indexes are about the same as yesterday, as far as I can tell. Regarding the D8 storm, we're walking a thin line. I still believe that someone in the SE is going to get some snow from this. But right now, it's impossible to say who. We'll just have to wait and see, but I'd lean toward a storm being there as opposed to suppression to oblivion. The cold air is still going to be the problem in my view (again, barring a phase -- and even then, it'll be a problem). Right now, I would favor the same areas that saw snow back in January. We'll see the GFS come back. That's my prediction. Plus, it thundered a lot the other night, so we have that going for us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 yea keep it suppressed thru next monday/tues. cold push is there but the majority of us will have temp issues, its a given. but at least this time we won't be sucked in by snow maps showing 8"+, we will expect a slushy 1/2" and be content. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: GEFS still looking about the same in the LR. GEPS generally agrees. Has the EPS come around yet? Other indexes are about the same as yesterday, as far as I can tell. Regarding the D8 storm, we're walking a thin line. I still believe that someone in the SE is going to get some snow from this. But right now, it's impossible to say who. We'll just have to wait and see, but I'd lean toward a storm being there as opposed to suppression to oblivion. The cold air is still going to be the problem in my view (again, barring a phase -- and even then, it'll be a problem). Right now, I would favor the same areas that saw snow back in January. We'll see the GFS come back. That's my prediction. Plus, it thundered a lot the other night, so we have that going for us! Is the bathtub finally sloshing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 6 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: GEFS still looking about the same in the LR. GEPS generally agrees. Has the EPS come around yet? Other indexes are about the same as yesterday, as far as I can tell. Regarding the D8 storm, we're walking a thin line. I still believe that someone in the SE is going to get some snow from this. But right now, it's impossible to say who. We'll just have to wait and see, but I'd lean toward a storm being there as opposed to suppression to oblivion. The cold air is still going to be the problem in my view (again, barring a phase -- and even then, it'll be a problem). Right now, I would favor the same areas that saw snow back in January. We'll see the GFS come back. That's my prediction. Plus, it thundered a lot the other night, so we have that going for us! Ok CR if you're right...you not only start the thread, you start all threads next year. You're prognostication will have earned you that distinct honor. I think we're about at day 6 at this point though aren't we? If there's enough cold north of 85 though I'd be surprised, once it turns north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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