Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017

[SnowNiner]

2 minutes ago, griteater said:

We're too far out for the UKMet, that's how desperate we are 

Actually, the UKMet looks better than the GFS at 144, arguably much better.  More stream separation that wow has outlined, and more cold press into the Ohio Valley.  Could allow a better synch between the high moving east and the SW wave kicking out later

 

Thanks Grit. Oh, yeah I forgot it only went to 144.  Boy we are desperate!

Yes, UKMET looks much better on the set up, looks like a bit better orientation on the blocking too.  Hopefully come Sunday UKMET/EURO will show us we're still in line for an event around the upstate. 

[packbacker]

12z GEFS snowfall mean for day 8-13.  Lot of this would probably be ice for NC but not 100% sure.

[bhamwx205]

12z gefs mean

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[griteater]

3 minutes ago, griteater said:

We're too far out for the UKMet, that's how desperate we are 

Actually, the UKMet looks better than the GFS at 144, arguably much better.  More stream separation that wow has outlined, and more cold press into the Ohio Valley.  Could allow a better synch between the high moving east and the SW wave kicking out later

 

Notice the low pressure there north of NY State...we want to see that low wind up strong there, with northerly flow building behind it...Euro was doing this in some runs, but I think it's backed off of that a bit.

[mackerel_sky]

6 minutes ago, griteater said:

We're too far out for the UKMet, that's how desperate we are 

Actually, the UKMet looks better than the GFS at 144, arguably much better.  More stream separation that wow has outlined, and more cold press into the Ohio Valley.  Could allow a better synch between the high moving east and the SW wave kicking out later

 

Yeah, the biggest difference I see is, UKMET has better cold angle for us and energy is slower!?

[griteater]

Just now, mackerel_sky said:

Yeah, the biggest difference I see is, UKMET has better cold angle for us and energy is slower!?

Agree Mack

[Brick Tamland]

Mean increased and more big hits on the GEFS this time. 1, 6, 8, 11, 16, 18, and 19 to be precise.

[SnowNiner]

7 minutes ago, packbacker said:

12z GEFS snowfall mean for day 8-13.  Lot of this would probably be ice for NC but not 100% sure.

 

Where do I sign up for 5 inches of snow/ice.  

Man, this seems like it's going to be a nailbitter.  I swear I need to move north.  

[Wow]

6 minutes ago, griteater said:

Notice the low pressure there north of NY State...we want to see that low wind up strong there, with northerly flow building behind it...Euro was doing this in some runs, but I think it's backed off of that a bit.

UKMET puts that energy from the polar stream into the Canadian system. GFS doesn't know what to do so it phases most of it to the western low.  THat weakens our potential 50/50 block and sends out the western s/w out too quickly before the arctic front makes much headway.

[snowlover91]

Going through D11 some of the GFS ensemble members are nice. One has 24" or more of snow across a good chunk of central and western NC, e8 to be precise. 

[CaryWx]

Wow, how is GFS rated in handing the cold air plunges vs Euro and UKMET, etc

[bhamwx205]

Canadian ensembles look better in regards to the SER

vs the 12z gefs

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[vwgrrc]

Looks like North TX/DFW metro will get hammered this time? And it's not even that far out...

[mackerel_sky]

2 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

Looks like North TX-DFW will get hammered this time? And it's not even that far out...

Yeah, feels like we've been looking at day 9-11 threats for the last 5 days or so, but this thing will be starting up in like 5-7 days or so, in TX! 

[NCSNOW]

12 minutes ago, Wow said:

UKMET puts that energy from the polar stream into the Canadian system. GFS doesn't know what to do so it phases most of it to the western low.  THat weakens our potential 50/50 block and sends out the western s/w out too quickly before the arctic front makes much headway.

Yep. Well be at the start line Sunday into Monday. The 50/50 low might end up being the biggest piece to this puzzle when we look back 10 days from now. Gives us good  confuence in the NE and gets rid of the SER issues that gfs keeps kicking out.

[griteater]

14 minutes ago, Wow said:

UKMET puts that energy from the polar stream into the Canadian system. GFS doesn't know what to do so it phases most of it to the western low.  THat weakens our potential 50/50 block and sends out the western s/w out too quickly before the arctic front makes much headway.

Completely agree with everything here.  Getting energy from the northern stream and into the E Canada low is probably the single most important aspect to this working

[vwgrrc]

1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

Yeah, feels like we've been looking at day 9-11 threats for the last 5 days or so, but this thing will be starting up in like 5-7 days or so, in TX! 

Agree! 12z shows N TX will receive wintry weather for almost 24 hrs starting late Wednesday, with another wave of snow coming in Friday?? Honestly I wouldn't believe that giving it's still 6-7 days out. That would be a historical even here, if it happens.

[TiltedStorm]

Who's on Euro duty?


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[ajr]

For someone new to this, is there somewhere I can read a discussion on ensembles vs control/operational models? I can appreciate the utility of ensemble averaging but how is the control/operational model different exactly in terms of inputs (compared to the inputs for individual ensembles)? 

[BullCityWx]

3 minutes ago, ajr said:

For someone new to this, is there somewhere I can read a discussion on ensembles vs control/operational models? I can appreciate the utility of ensemble averaging but how is the control/operational model different exactly in terms of inputs (compared to the inputs for individual ensembles)? 

The OP runs have the most resolution of any model run. 

 

Control runs are coarser resolution operational runs. Typically, in an ensemble suite, there's about 40 different members. 

[ajr]

2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

The OP runs have the most resolution of any model run. 

 

Control runs are coarser resolution operational runs. Typically, in an ensemble suite, there's about 40 different members. 

Thanks

[BullCityWx]

8 minutes ago, ajr said:

Thanks

No problem. 

Think about it like this. If you take a square mile of land, the higher resolution model would have more people in it, thus more data and potentially better information.

[packbacker]

Euro is so different then previous runs..not sure what to think.  It's going to be congrats Ohio on this run.  

[AshevilleCityWx]

40 minutes ago, TiltedStorm said:

Who's on Euro duty?


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Oh well southernwx.com is lol

[Wurbus]

1 minute ago, packbacker said:

Euro is so different then previous runs..not sure what to think.  It's going to be congrats Ohio on this run.  

Sounds like it looks more like the CMC?

[DopplerWx]

euro much warmer out to 192. rain in nc.

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Just now, DopplerWx said:

euro much warmer out to 192. rain in nc.

Lol tries to ram a LP right up into a strong CAD. Nope. 

[mackerel_sky]

1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Lol tries to ram a LP right up into a strong CAD. Nope. 

That could save us, if we could get a good wedge. It hasn't been showing that in past runs. But cold still has to get in before the storm, that's the biggest issue, cold push

[DopplerWx]

even va is all rain this run, ugly as sin.

[FallsLake]

2 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Lol tries to ram a LP right up into a strong CAD. Nope. 

Just saw that. That's a 1053 high up in Ontario/Quebec.