SnowNiner Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: What say the Europeans today? Storms there, but warm and rain. Northern stream is all jacked up on the lake lows. Went a little south with the low, but still nada for the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, mrdaddyman said: Step in the right direction. Slower with the system coming out of Texas. It's just not cold enough though. Rain for everyone outside of the mountains. Looks cold enough for snow for southern VA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Just now, BornAgain13 said: The EURO looks good doesnt it?? Looks colder Not cold enough for snow, but better than previous runs , little bit of work to do, but overall positive trends on the days model runs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Looks cold enough for snow for southern VA? Nope. Surface temps in the low 40's. Unless we get some colder air in here somehow it's just not going to cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Stronger with the vortex over new England that run. Still farther north than the gfs and over 144 hours out. Lots of changes to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthWake33 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, mrdaddyman said: Step in the right direction. Slower with the system coming out of Texas. It's just not cold enough though. Rain for everyone outside of the mountains. Are you able to see what happens between 144 and 168? I'm assuming the cold doesn't get in here quick enough. From a timing standpoint the storm comes through almost 48 hours earlier on the euro compared to the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, SouthWake33 said: Are you able to see what happens between 144 and 168? I'm assuming the cold doesn't get in here quick enough. From a timing standpoint the storm comes through almost 48 hours earlier on the euro compared to the gfs. Bingo. Gets caught up in the Mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Anybody got any snowmaps from the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 12Z GEFS continues to remain consistent in the LR. GEPS is very similar. We will have winter storm threats with this look: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: 12Z GEFS continues to remain consistent in the LR. GEPS is very similar. We will have winter storm threats with this look: Really like how the coldest air in the world, is trying to get into Canada! Cross polar flow for the win! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Really like how the coldest air in the world, is trying to get into Canada! Cross polar flow for the win! Also the fact that we are mostly always chasing snow/cold 10+ days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Euro took a step toward the slower ejection of the SW wave, but CMC/Euro still in the quick camp and warmer, while GFS/UKMet still in the slower and colder camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 18 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Anybody got any snowmaps from the euro? There was just a little snow on the Euro in the central and northern mtns, into SW VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 17 minutes ago, griteater said: There was just a little snow on the Euro in the central and northern mtns, into SW VA Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 2 hours ago, frazdaddy said: We are forecast to go 77 or maybe warmer on Sunday. I have seen many a snow storm come in behind a very warm day. We will see. In fact its almost seems to be required in good Feb storms.....keep in mind most of NE was in the mid 50's to 60 this time yesterday, Central Park hit 60 yesterday and today they got almost a foot down this morning, my uncle in western Mass has 15-20" right now though they only got to 50 yesterday. Below is the temps the week of the big Feb 1989 snowstorm we had here, we had 75 on the 21st and 22nd with severe thunderstorms....2 days later on the 24/25th we had 11" snow, the same for Mar 1980. The big Feb hit out west in 2004 had temps in the 60's the week before....it was 70 in RDU 3 days before the sleetfest in 87 where they got 5-8" sleet etc, etc etc.... 1989-02-21 76 50 63.0 16.6 2 0 0.12 0.0 0 1989-02-22 M 44 M M M M 0.74 0.0 0 1989-02-23 44 33 38.5 -8.3 26 0 0.02 0.0 0 1989-02-24 33 24 28.5 -18.5 36 0 0.29 2.0 M 1989-02-25 35 13 24.0 -23.2 41 0 0.60 9.0 M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, downeastnc said: In fact its almost seems to be required in good Feb storms.....keep in mind most of NE was in the mid 50's to 60 this time yesterday, Central Park hit 60 yesterday and today they got almost a foot down this morning Below is the temps the week of the big Feb 1989 snowstorm we had here, we had 75 on the 21st and 22nd with severe thunderstorms....2 days later on the 24/25th we had 11" snow, the same for Mar 1980. The big Feb hit out west in 2004 had temps in the 60's the week before....it was 70 in RDU 3 days before the sleetfest in 87 where they got 5-8" sleet etc, etc etc.... 1989-02-21 76 50 63.0 16.6 2 0 0.12 0.0 0 1989-02-22 M 44 M M M M 0.74 0.0 0 1989-02-23 44 33 38.5 -8.3 26 0 0.02 0.0 0 1989-02-24 33 24 28.5 -18.5 36 0 0.29 2.0 M 1989-02-25 35 13 24.0 -23.2 41 0 0.60 9.0 M My gut was telling me the theory had legs but I didn't have time to research it. Thanks for posting this sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Just now, frazdaddy said: My gut was telling me the theory had legs but I didn't have time to research it. Thanks for posting this sir. No problem, its funny you posted that as it had recently been something I had been looking at, to refute all the sun angle and ground temp crap that is surely to pop up this time of year. I was shocked to see just how often it happens that we get good events after well AN periods in Feb. The next few weeks look to be trending in the right direction....if we squeeze a few events out of it it would salvage winter IMBY at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 A neat look here on the GFS Ensemble mean at day 6. At this point, each of the big 3 ensembles (GFS, CMC, Euro) essentially have a +3 PNA and a -3 NAO. Let's go team, we can do this!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, griteater said: A neat look here on the GFS Ensemble mean at day 6. At this point, each of the big 3 ensembles (GFS, CMC, Euro) essentially have a +3 PNA and a -3 NAO. Let's go team, we can do this!! Any normal winter this would be a legit threat, deep ull into sw-TX, stout PNA/NAO combo. And no SER which brings a tear to my eye. And we don't have to rely on some wave having to dig all the down from Canada and underneath us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, griteater said: A neat look here on the GFS Ensemble mean at day 6. At this point, each of the big 3 ensembles (GFS, CMC, Euro) essentially have a +3 PNA and a -3 NAO. Let's go team, we can do this!! Well the GPI (Grit Posting Index) is way up into the positive territory so that must mean this is a viable threat. I'm paying attention! But still worried it's not going to be cold enough. You would think with the indecies we would score. The other thing I worry about is the trough being too far east and this slides off the coast out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 21 minutes ago, griteater said: A neat look here on the GFS Ensemble mean at day 6. At this point, each of the big 3 ensembles (GFS, CMC, Euro) essentially have a +3 PNA and a -3 NAO. Let's go team, we can do this!! And yet we can't get one single member of the euro (0-51) to spit out a widespread snowy solution in the day 10..... haha. I love the look where we are going though. You have to think we see a look or two in the coming day or three that spits out something fun to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Does anyone feel like this could be "the one"? Or am i just wishcasting? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 9 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Does anyone feel like this could be "the one"? Or am i just wishcasting? Lol climatology says "yes" and I say "maybe" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 39 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: Well the GPI (Grit Posting Index) is way up into the positive territory so that must mean this is a viable threat. I'm paying attention! But still worried it's not going to be cold enough. You would think with the indecies we would score. The other thing I worry about is the trough being too far east and this slides off the coast out to sea. Sadly the WPI (Wow Posting Index) and API (Allan Posting Index) are still negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, ajr said: Sadly the WPI (Wow Posting Index) and API (Allan Posting Index) are still negative. and when the Josh posting Index is high, usually the Wishcasting and despair index are way up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 22 minutes ago, ajr said: Sadly the WPI (Wow Posting Index) and API (Allan Posting Index) are still negative. lol, Allan only comes in when a threats eminent. The -WPI index is a concern. We'll have to wait a bit for the WPI ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 18z gonna be suppressed again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said: 18z gonna be suppressed again good. and a nice cold push. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Just now, DopplerWx said: good. and a nice cold push. This is wayyyyy suppressed. Middle ground between Euro and GFS would be decent IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Cary_Snow95 said: This is wayyyyy suppressed. Middle ground between Euro and GFS would be decent IMO cold push prob wont be quite that strong plus our nw trend should put a lot of us in a good spot assuming the storm keeps showing up. nice look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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