JoshM Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Euro has the storm on the 15th... Low goes from Middle GA to near Myrtle Beach. The 0 degree line for 850s is in the foothills of NC, but surface is torching. Still, a cooler run in general in the long range, compared to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 6z GFS = a lot better! Colder, SC bullseye, suppression ! Soy you believe in miracles!???? Euro a little colder too! Baby steps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Bonus clipper on 19th, then bomb in the gulf, 2-3 days later! Fab Feb!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 11 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Bonus clipper on 19th, then bomb in the gulf, 2-3 days later! Fab Feb!? Yep, lots of potential. I like the colder surface temps for the 9th & 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 6 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: Don't be mad cause I Jackpot! Put down the haterade, enjoy your tstorm, cause you know that guarantees snow in 7-10 days, Brick told me so! Post hoc,ergo propter hoc. Rarely if ever verify's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rowjimmy73 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 10 hours ago, pcbjr said: Unfortunately - yes Brave the storm to come for it surely looks like rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 It looks like it could be a big system, the question becomes is their enough cold air? Right now, It doesnt look cold enough. Or is the cold being underdone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 DGEX looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Nice to see that northern branch energy trying to drop in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 11 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Nice to see that northern branch energy trying to drop in. Navgem looks similar. Be nice if the Euro was remotely close to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 15 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: It looks like it could be a big system, the question becomes is their enough cold air? Right now, It doesnt look cold enough. Or is the cold being underdone? For the day 8/9 system, the 6z GFS would be plenty cold at the surface. Dew points at hour 180: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 9 minutes ago, FallsLake said: For the day 8/9 system, the 6z GFS would be plenty cold at the surface. Dew points at hour 180: For NC, anyway!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 How's CMC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: For NC, anyway!? If that low ends up bombing closer to the coast, all the cold air (..lower dew points) just to your north will feed in (basically a nice CAD should setup). Point is the players are on the field, we just need them to play together. Still far out so many different solutions (good and bad) will present themselves in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 CMC is rain for all except tops of mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, Snovary said: CMC is rain for all except tops of mountains Atleast its the same general track! But concerning that CMC is usually one of the coldest models!? I guess it's track is a little N of GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 really like this look. hope models keep it suppressed for the next few days, cold will always be a worry but give us a good low track and i'll take my chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 FWIW...UK is more GFS like at day 6. Looks like euro is weakening the ULL and sending a piece out much quicker then other guidance. It could be leading the way I guess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 6zGEFS picking up on something atleast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Nice to see some potential to track - probably the last of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 14 minutes ago, packbacker said: FWIW...UK is more GFS like at day 6. Looks like euro is weakening the ULL and sending a piece out much quicker then other guidance. It could be leading the way I guess... Yeah Pack I was coming in here to post that Euro/CMC are in one camp and GFS/UKMet are in the other. Euro/CMC don't allow the polar trough to drop down into the Great Lakes and Northeast out ahead of our storm wave over TX like the GFS/UKMet are doing. Euro/CMC look won't work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Cmc ensembles moved towards the gefs in the longer range. How does the eps compare? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 34 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Atleast its the same general track! But concerning that CMC is usually one of the coldest models!? I guess it's track is a little N of GFS CMC tends to bias cold in the medium range when you have a big arctic high plunging down. Outside of that, I don't think it's fair to say that it has a cold bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 In the So What Have We Learned Here thread, we learned (or maybe we didn't) that we want the system showing up crossing central Florida until 24 hours out. Right now, I have to go on ahead and congratulate Big Frosty on another snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: In the So What Have We Learned Here thread, we learned (or maybe we didn't) that we want the system showing up crossing central Florida until 24 hours out. Right now, I have to go on ahead and congratulate Big Frosty on another snowstorm. Go with the warm / rainer solution! Always money, like UNC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: In the So What Have We Learned Here thread, we learned (or maybe we didn't) that we want the system showing up crossing central Florida until 24 hours out. Right now, I have to go on ahead and congratulate Big Frosty on another snowstorm. Why thank you Pal, That's mighty nice of you!! I like getting paid early................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Cmc ensembles moved towards the gefs in the longer range. How does the eps compare? GFS Ens looks the best of the 3...then CMC Ens...then Euro Ens. Euro Ens still has a strong nino look to it...southern stream, but it's more west to east zonal, so it's cool, not cold...it does retrograde the N Pac low west in time, but it doesn't have the W Canada / AK ridging like the GFS Ens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 ^ And Euro Ens has negative height anomalies over Greenland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: In the So What Have We Learned Here thread, we learned (or maybe we didn't) that we want the system showing up crossing central Florida until 24 hours out. Right now, I have to go on ahead and congratulate Big Frosty on another snowstorm. Good analysis! Congrats Roxboro , on another 8-10"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, griteater said: GFS Ens looks the best of the 3...then CMC Ens...then Euro Ens. Euro Ens still has a strong nino look to it...southern stream, but it's more west to east zonal, so it's cool, not cold...it does retrograde the N Pac low west in time, but it doesn't have the W Canada / AK ridging like the GFS Ens. As far as op runs, GFS is slowly trending cooler for the last couple of runs, and Euro slightly as well. Thought I heard one time the GFS has been doing better with pattern recognition , atleast this year, and wasn't it the 1st to move this current storm to the NYC bomb we have today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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