packbacker Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 8 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: What's the best phase for surface temps? You'd think with that upper air map, surface temps would look better. Per the MJO composites on Allan's site...ph8/nino is what we want. Not taking into account enso weaker ph8 and ph3 looks to be coldest. Phase 1 is AN in non-nino winter. I saw JB tweeting about Feb/Ph8 and cold but he picked 88/2010 which were both nino winters... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 27 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: That's crazy that our cut off dates are so different. My cut off date is Feb 15th. I honestly don't recall seeing any significant snow past Feb 15th since 1993. The latest snowfall I recall since then was in February 2010. So, some quick math on that. Accumulating snow in SC since 1955 = 7 dates with 2.42 avg. Most happening first week of March 3 of those in the first week of March 1960 only 2 events after the 10th of March 03/25/1971 = 2.0 03/24/1983 = 2.0 http://www.weather.gov/ilm/FLOsnowfallDatabase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 10 minutes ago, packbacker said: Looks like ph8....starting to think Ph8 doesn't solve all our problems. Curse you JB! Wow that's amazing...great H5 pattern just like the phase 8 analog. But nope, no cold air. We're so bad, we don't even understand how we fail! We just do... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: Per the MJO composites on Allan's site...ph8/nino is what we want. Not taking into account enso weaker ph8 and ph3 looks to be coldest. Phase 1 is AN in non-nino winter. I saw JB tweeting about Feb/Ph8 and cold but he picked 88/2010 which were both nino winters... Gotcha. Yeah, that is a facepalm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Painful looking at this pattern upcoming...we have a +PNA/-EPO/-AO/-NAO with a nice 50/50 and these are the temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 21 minutes ago, frazdaddy said: So, some quick math on that. Accumulating snow in SC since 1955 = 7 dates with 2.42 avg. Most happening first week of March 3 of those in the first week of March 1960 only 2 events after the 10th of March 03/25/1971 = 2.0 03/24/1983 = 2.0 http://www.weather.gov/ilm/FLOsnowfallDatabase March 1 , 2009, gave me 8" imby, but about half or less at GSP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Looks like anything after the first week is extremely rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 37 minutes ago, packbacker said: Painful looking at this pattern upcoming...we have a +PNA/-EPO/-AO/-NAO with a nice 50/50 and these are the temps. Lol, you picked the warmest panel between the colder periods of basically 250 and 350. Here's the map at 222: Then at 240: Then, we get a transient warm-up, which you showed. Then we get this at 354: And at 384: With this upper air pattern: It's still not a snowstorm pattern. But at least with a few minor tweaks, we'd have a shot at something to close out the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 9 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Lol, you picked the warmest panel between the colder periods of basically 250 and 350. Here's the map at 222: Then at 240: Then, we get a transient warm-up, which you showed. Then we get this at 354: And at 384: With this upper air pattern: It's still not a snowstorm pattern. But at least with a few minor tweaks, we'd have a shot at something to close out the season. LOL...I swear I didn't hunt and find the warmest panel, I just happen to check pivotal at that hour and those were the temps. Warmth just finds me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, packbacker said: LOL...I swear I didn't hunt and find the warmest panel, I just happen to check pivotal at that hour and those were the temps. Warmth just finds me... Haha! This winter, it finds us all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said: We are due for a monster Euro run. Unfortunately, it's not going to be today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, packbacker said: LOL...I swear I didn't hunt and find the warmest panel, I just happen to check pivotal at that hour and those were the temps. Warmth just finds me... Got tired of posting cold and great indicies pretty quickly!? Back to your Glenn Burns wamathon posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: Got tired of posting cold and great indicies pretty quickly!? Back to your Glenn Burns wamathon posts I don't discriminate...equal opportunity between warmth/cold. Not sure how there are any cold posts, we have been super warm the past 4+ weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Not at all what we want Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Euro sucks....could see early on with the low up in Hudson Bay that the SLP would track north. We either need that low to drop down into the lakes or move the heck out of the way to get some HP funneling in. It was in a perfect spot for what we don't want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Euro has that look to it on day 9... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 11 minutes ago, packbacker said: Euro has that look to it on day 9... Is that the "if we make a couple of tweaks to it here and there we might get a foot of snow" type of look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 HORRIFIC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 10 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: HORRIFIC: We may set a record for severe weather threads this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: We may set a record for severe weather threads this winter We just might. But even that doesn't give us anything on this side of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: We just might. But even that doesn't give us anything on this side of the mountains. we already have 6 severe weather threads in the books...just holy lol...what a winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Cold Rain said in an earlier post. "This isn't a winter storm pattern yet, but the evolution is what you want to see." I disagree. We are quickly running out of time for evolution. We need some good old fashioned creation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 14 minutes ago, jburns said: Cold Rain said in an earlier post. "This isn't a winter storm pattern yet, but the evolution is what you want to see." I disagree. We are quickly running out of time for evolution. We need some good old fashioned creation. Yep, 384 panels are only going to suffice so long! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 If I ever move it will be to just west of Boston. First they win the Superbowl and now a blizzard in the same week. #cleanliving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 CFS says we are in a mod nino territory by summer Hypothetically if we get a mod nina (3.4 1-1.5) Mod Nino's: 2010, 2003, 1995, 1988, 1987, 1969, 1966, 1964 Only 1 of these winters was AN...1995, which also happened to be a +QBO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 hours ago, jburns said: Cold Rain said in an earlier post. "This isn't a winter storm pattern yet, but the evolution is what you want to see." I disagree. We are quickly running out of time for evolution. We need some good old fashioned creation. You are right. Outside of the mountains time is running out quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 hour ago, packbacker said: If I ever move it will be to just west of Boston. First they win the Superbowl and now a blizzard in the same week. #cleanliving That's one of 3 storms they will be getting in the next 8 days according to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 I don't know what it is about February but I swear the Northeast and Mid Atlantic tend to get their heaviest snows this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Can we my the high up to the 1030's, we know a more amped low is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 8 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: I don't know what it is about February but I swear the Northeast and Mid Atlantic tend to get their heaviest snows this month. I would guess they have had more 10" events since 2010 (8 years) then any other 8 year stretch. Golden age of snow for them right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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