SnowNiner Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Great long range thoughts CR. The problem I have is like you say, we're pretty much doomed until the 384 hr on these models, which is very questionable to say the least if they actually even come true. That and it takes us to the last week of the month. I have a personal cut off date of March 1. Don't know what it is but after meteorological spring starts, it just doesn't work. I just can't stand looking for paste jobs snows that melt 20 minutes later, if it even is cold enough to actually snow. I just lose interest. That gives me a week window to really score. I'm just going to wait till the end of next week and see where we are and hope for some blips. If not, just got to move on IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 The fact that it's Feb 8th and we are talking about the long range is not a good sign. Climo says outside of the mountains and parts of NC, we have about 10-14 days left of having any realistic chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 I wonder if NYC weenies are worried about ground temps tomorrow?? Maybe the same 2 or 3 people that bring that crap up every time it's gonna snow here, should go post that in the NYC thread!!? I mean, it's almost 60 right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: I wonder if NYC weenies are worried about ground temps tomorrow?? Maybe the same 2 or 3 people that bring that crap up every time it's gonna snow here, should go post that in the NYC thread!!? I mean, it's almost 60 right now! I think we would all love to be in their situation, but even this storm is following along with the overall "bad" winter. Warm to start off and then quickly warms up after the storm. Where are the winter storms that have at least one week of post cold temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 3 hours ago, Cold Rain said: No high pressure + no extreme luck = no snow No snow for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, No snow for you said: No snow for you Mild rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 hour ago, Cold Rain said: Thanks guys. LOL ^ Webber would probably come in and tell me how perfectly wrong I have it! I like the trends we're seeing way out there. We just have to hope they hold and don't get pushed out. I always say that hope doesn't create a SE snowstorm, but it's about all we have left at this point! And I agree with Falls about the -EPO. We need it...and we need some blocking to go with it. Great post! Painful to look at this, +PNA/-NAO/50-50, deep cut off way down in TX. To much low pressure, 1025hp won't get it done. The 1050hp over Greenland needs to be down in Hudson Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1020hp banana high with low entering the atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Hard to get a better track than this, Pack: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 49 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: I wonder if NYC weenies are worried about ground temps tomorrow?? Maybe the same 2 or 3 people that bring that crap up every time it's gonna snow here, should go post that in the NYC thread!!? I mean, it's almost 60 right now! Only the idiots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Hard to get a better track than this, Pack: Yeah but it goes out to sea... no impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, BornAgain13 said: Yeah but it goes out to sea... no impact. Does it really matter if it goes out to sea for those of us in GA ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Thicknesses would seem to support snow for the northern half of NC. Temps would be in the upper 30s to low 40s, though. Only problem is, other than temps and marginal thicknesses is there's no precip. HAHAHAHA! (If that low takes that track, there will be precip farther north) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, BornAgain13 said: Yeah but it goes out to sea... no impact. We need the rain, I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, packbacker said: 1020hp banana high with low entering the atlantic. Man those are some weak HPs....this winter is trolling us. How do you get a perfect pattern with most of the indices in your favor and still strike out? Here it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 We finally get a storm to trend South and there's no cold air to work with: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: Man those are some weak HPs....this winter is trolling us. How do you get a perfect pattern with most of the indices in your favor and still strike out? Here it is. 2 minutes ago, mrdaddyman said: We finally get a storm to trend South and there's no cold air to work with: From the freebie Euro maps it looks like it was a slider too, but much warmer. Maybe this ends up just gets shunted out to sea harmlessly. Give us that GFS run with a 1030hp and the typical north trend and you never know I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, mrdaddyman said: We finally get a storm to trend South and there's no cold air to work with: Need a better HP source! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 10 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Need a better HP source! You can see the Scandi. ridge is pressing down into Greenland (better NAO), so the 50/50 is a tick further south. The PNA ridge does start to migrate west too so that kicks the PV that was dropping down into the lakes into a better 50/50 position but progressive flow hard to amplify, which isn't the worst for us. But, +EPO is a killer here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 CMC has pretty much the same track . . . with the same results. However, to my untrained eye it looks closer to something than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 CMC takes similar track to GFS, but further north, but the northern precip shield is just not their. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 We are due for a monster Euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, packbacker said: You can see the Scandi. ridge is pressing down into Greenland (better NAO), so the 50/50 is a tick further south. The PNA ridge does start to migrate west too so that kicks the PV that was dropping down into the lakes into a better 50/50 position but progressive flow hard to amplify, which isn't the worst for us. But, +EPO is a killer here. The feed of really cold air into the US has already been severed prior to this, so it's going to be difficult for things to change in such a way to get enough cold air in during the storm to get anything other than a cold rain. Still plenty of time to watch it, but I'm not sure how we can even crowbar anything in here at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, mrdaddyman said: CMC has pretty much the same track . . . with the same results. However, to my untrained eye it looks closer to something than the GFS. 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: CMC takes similar track to GFS, but further north, but the northern precip shield is just not their. CMC is another way it could snow...need a piece of the PV to drop down into the back of the southern ULL. Wishcasting though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, Cold Rain said: The feed of really cold air into the US has already been severed prior to this, so it's going to be difficult for things to change in such a way to get enough cold air in during the storm to get anything other than a cold rain. Still plenty of time to watch it, but I'm not sure how we can even crowbar anything in here at this point. Agree...bleak for us but I will be happy if this turns into a blizzard for the MA/NE. Be a shame to waste this ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 hour ago, SnowNiner said: Great long range thoughts CR. The problem I have is like you say, we're pretty much doomed until the 384 hr on these models, which is very questionable to say the least if they actually even come true. That and it takes us to the last week of the month. I have a personal cut off date of March 1. Don't know what it is but after meteorological spring starts, it just doesn't work. I just can't stand looking for paste jobs snows that melt 20 minutes later, if it even is cold enough to actually snow. I just lose interest. That gives me a week window to really score. I'm just going to wait till the end of next week and see where we are and hope for some blips. If not, just got to move on IMO. I never give up hope before the end of March. My personal cut off date is March 25th. I've seen a lot of March snowstorms here in the Upstate of SC. One of the biggest ones I've ever seen came on March 25th 1971, at least 10 inches in Greenwood, SC. Have seen at least 2 the 1st or 2nd day of Spring of at least 6 inches, and several more during early to mid March, so it's hard for me to give up hope before March is at least half over. But that's just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, tonysc said: I never give up hope before the end of March. My personal cut off date is March 25th. I've seen a lot of March snowstorms here in the Upstate of SC. One of the biggest ones I've ever seen came on March 25th 1971, at least 10 inches in Greenwood, SC. Have seen at least 2 the 1st or 2nd day of Spring of at least 6 inches, and several more during early to mid March, so it's hard for me to give up hope before March is at least half over. But that's just me. That's crazy that our cut off dates are so different. My cut off date is Feb 15th. I honestly don't recall seeing any significant snow past Feb 15th since 1993. The latest snowfall I recall since then was in February 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 FWIW, The there could be a stronger high to our north with the day 8 system if it played out like GFS depicts. Looks like the southern system is delayed long enough to move a clipper through the northeast and behind that there's strong confluence up that way. Could trend into a CAD event in that scenario, (not that I'm buying that scenario). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Looks like ph8....starting to think Ph8 doesn't solve all our problems. Curse you JB! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 What's the best phase for surface temps? You'd think with that upper air map, surface temps would look better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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