Cold Rain Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 27 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: On the other board, the 18z was the best look all winter on the GFS , even with no snow!? What am I missing! A fifth of bourbon maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Looks like cold rain is paying a visit to DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 15 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Looks like cold rain is paying a visit to DC. Looks like PHL to NY to sNE jackpot. I hope it will buries them...take that stupid Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: On the other board, the 18z was the best look all winter on the GFS , even with no snow!? What am I missing! 59 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: A fifth of bourbon maybe? The last thing we want to see on the models the next few days is a big snowstorm for the SE...because you know it won't happen. Need models all over the places until inside day 5. Starting to lose some steam on this winter...4+ weeks of +10F temp anomalies after the biggest snow bust makes you want to tap out. It feels really good outside, starting to get that itch for spring, actually had to flip the AC on today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, packbacker said: The last thing we want to see on the models the next few days is a big snowstorm for the SE...because you know it won't happen. Need models all over the places until inside day 5. Starting to lose some steam on this winter...4+ weeks of +10F temp anomalies after the biggest snow bust makes you want to tap out. It feels really good outside, starting to get that itch for spring, actually had to flip the AC on today. Agree with this 100%. I still think we have a couple of shots left, but man what a miserable winter so far south and east of roughly Asheboro to Burlington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Here's one for Pack, the GFS had a warm bias for January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 FWIW, the GFS has been trending cooler each run in general. Our system for the 16th is still an apps runner, but has trended from rain and near 60, to rain and upper 30s. Our warm up this week should be short lived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Don't know what this is about, surface and 850s are above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 3 hours ago, JoshM said: Don't know what this is about, surface and 850s are above freezing. Front-end thump. Moisture moves in while 850's are still around 0c. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Great track on 6z GFS , perfect Miller A ish track! Only problem, lack of cold air!! Models just underestimating the cold push! 540 in N VA! $$$$$$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 06Z GFS getting closer to what we want to see on the Feb 16th system, hr 198 is close to being snow for a lot of NC, 850's are cold enough and the surface is upper 30's....more suppressed low track is what we want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 9 minutes ago, downeastnc said: 06Z GFS getting closer to what we want to see on the Feb 16th system, hr 198 is close to being snow for a lot of NC, 850's are cold enough and the surface is upper 30's....more suppressed low track is what we want to see. Just noticed the 0 degree 850s in NC! Surface sucks, as you said! But that was a nice shift south, and there are some very cold temps/850s, just to our North! Wouldn't take much to get something nice, especially for NC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Just noticed the 0 degree 850s in NC! Surface sucks, as you said! But that was a nice shift south, and there are some very cold temps/850s, just to our North! Wouldn't take much to get something nice, especially for NC! yeah best run in a while.....gotta hope it stays suppressed and that the NW side is wetter than modeled but it usually is, if that happens then the cold will work itself out...its 8 days out and gonna change every run though for several moe days at least lol.....the run ended with another threat as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 No high pressure + no extreme luck = no snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 23 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: No high pressure + no extreme luck = no snow You nee to take this crap to the other place, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 15 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: You nee to take this crap to the other place, thanks! How did the EPS look? Getting more in line with the blocky and excellent looking GEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 14 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: How did the EPS look? Getting more in line with the blocky and excellent looking GEFS? Yeah, 6z was a lot better. More Miller As! We gonna reel this in! edit: oops, I thought you said gefs! Dont know about eps, gotta refer to pack! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 31 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: How did the EPS look? Getting more in line with the blocky and excellent looking GEFS? Every 5 day avg from day 5 to day 15 has above normal temps on the EPS. Day 10-15... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, griteater said: Every 5 day avg from day 5 to day 15 has above normal temps on the EPS. Day 10-15... Thanks, Grit. That looks horrible on it's face. But what is it trending toward? That's the question. There are still some quite encouraging signals showing on the 0Z and 6Z GEFS and 0Z GEPS. I'm about to make a post on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: Every 5 day avg from day 5 to day 15 has above normal temps on the EPS. Day 10-15... Good grief....that is so funny. I sure have spent a lot of time this winter tracking warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just need some cold air with this! Definitely more Miller A like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 6Z GEFS loses the PNA pretty quick and then we're warm again. Blocky smocky, it doesn't look like it's going to do us much good. It's just not cold. I'm sure it'll be frigid in April....for April that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 23 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: 6Z GEFS loses the PNA pretty quick and then we're warm again. Blocky smocky, it doesn't look like it's going to do us much good. It's just not cold. I'm sure it'll be frigid in April....for April that is. Congrats NYC and BOS! Sorry DCA! This winter is awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 It's hard to see how we get any snow before the last week in February with the kind of transient pattern in place and general lack of cold air. But looking at the model trends, particularly the GEFS and GEPS, and particularly toward the end of their runs, hope continues to linger. You can take a snapshot of any operational or ensemble run and show what looks like a torch or an arctic outbreak. Personally, I like to look at the trends, along with what else is supposed to be happening in the atmosphere (and how that's worked out historically) in order to try to figure out where we might go. So far this season, the trend has been for short duration cold and longer duration warmth. However, we are moving into a different stage of the season. In addition to that, we have an anomalously strong MJO pulse, moving into a favorable phase as well as a disturbed strat vortex. That argues against warmth as much as the persistence of the season argues for warmth. So what do the ensembles show? Well, both the Canadian (first) and American (second) LR panels show a fairly similar pattern. Take a look: You can see a distinct signal for an Aleutian low. This feature, if it can remain stable for a time, will help to pump up heights in the EPO region and promote cross-polar flow. You sort of see that in the snapshot below. You can also see a split flow developing out in the eastern Pacific. Both of these features are good and will act to slow the Pacific jet, which has been responsible for flooding the US with mild air all winter. Ridging up toward the pole allows the flow to turn out of the arctic and be directed into the eastern US. As a result, you will see lower heights build in Canada. You can't see it from this snapshot (and I can't create an animation from my flip phone), but I drew an arrow, indicating where the lower heights migrate to over the last few frames of the run. This isn't a winter storm pattern yet, but the evolution is what you want to see. The GEFS looks even better. Notice how you have agreement in the general placement of features with the GEPS. Aleutian low? Check. Split flow? Check. Cross-polar flow? Big time check. Lowering heights in eastern Canada? Check. If you want snow at the end of February and into March, this is the kind of pattern you want to see develop. Given the strong MJO pulse and its location, and given the favorable disruption of the stratosphere, I'm inclined to lean toward getting a period of fairly cold and stormy weather near the end of the month and on into March. Could all of this be wrong? Certainly. The persistence of the warm pattern so far has been something to behold. But as long as there are straws on the table, we might as well grasp all we can. We only have about a month of chasing until next Winter, and we don't quit on the home stretch! Here's your daily index update (I don't agree with the AO coming back, given the ensemble trends and the strat stuff -- I think the model is bringing it back up too quickly). The PNA should stay generally positive for a good while. The EPO (not shown) should turn negative. The NAO is a lost cause. The MJO looks great. Good day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 ^ lol..... good post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 We might start seeing a -EPO in the LR. That could be key to us getting a last chance event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Cold Rain, great post!! That was Webber-esque, with nice pictures! Good stuff! I hope they never cut your computer time at work!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Well said CR. 5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Cold Rain, great post!! That was Webber-esque, with nice pictures! Good stuff! I hope they never cut your computer time at work!! CR's posts like this are textbook, sans attitude and much easier to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Thanks guys. LOL ^ Webber would probably come in and tell me how perfectly wrong I have it! I like the trends we're seeing way out there. We just have to hope they hold and don't get pushed out. I always say that hope doesn't create a SE snowstorm, but it's about all we have left at this point! And I agree with Falls about the -EPO. We need it...and we need some blocking to go with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Here are the best ensemble members showing snow in the SE (total 1-16 day accumulation). Ironically, the 0z run had more members with snow. The 6z run only had this one, I think...or maybe another that was really, really light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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