Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017

[SnowNiner]

2 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Like the GFS shows...actually surprised how close we are to wintery precip with this crappy a block and SER.

 

Yeah, that block I noticed was barely there.  Hopefully the GEFS is much stronger with it.  Starting to lose faith in this one.  

[FallsLake]

2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

va does well, temps screw us in nc.  34 and rain.

But it still ends up having some wintery precip from Raleigh northwards. I agree this is not the look we want but not a complete disaster.

[CaryWx]

Guess we'll need to see if the 12z Euro bends towards the GFS more this way.  If so will begin to look like the cold press (SE) is not going to be as stout, at least early on. 

[mackerel_sky]

Looks like wall to wall cold, hit a wall

[Brick Tamland]

Crazy how places further south get a big storm and it's rain here.

[FallsLake]

Hour 222:

 

[Cold Rain]

2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Crazy how places further south get a big storm and it's rain here.

It's a better fit with the pattern we've been in.  It's unfortunate, but not really all that nuts.  If we want snow, TX is the place to be the last couple of years.

Also, on Falls' map above, the high is finally moving into a better spot as the precip leaves.

[Brick Tamland]

1 minute ago, FallsLake said:

Hour 222:

 

Close for some ice. Maybe the ensembles and Euro will be better. Still plenty of time to go.

[LovingGulfLows]

3 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Crazy how places further south get a big storm and it's rain here.

 

 

SER is a killer.

[FallsLake]

Just now, Brick Tamland said:

Close for some ice. Maybe the ensembles and Euro will be better. Still plenty of time to go.

If we were within a couple of days (and had this look), I would be worried about a significant ice event for our particular area. 12 GFS basically shows another wave running up of the coast keeping a chance of more ice on the NW edge (near us).

[packbacker]

This is what a retreating NAO block with SER gets you...

[Wow]

12z GFS is so close to a monster event.  It gets hung up on the evolution of the s/w in the SW as is usually the case in this time range.  There's another wave right on its heels and kicks the front wave into the shredder so it quickly rolls out the string of precip.  The cold hasn't moved east yet so a lack of HP gives you what it shows.

All that needs to happen here is for the front wave to consolidate and show a more separate flow from the polar/arctic jet.  You can see the heights "sagging" back into the s/w which limits confluence and keeps HP from building in overhead.  Just need more separation between the two .. GFS has always been subpar on this in this range. Euro is better.

[griteater]

[Wow]

5 minutes ago, packbacker said:

This is what a retreating NAO block with SER gets you...

 

There's still ridging in Greenland, just not the mega block that some models were showing.  

[Wow]

You guys need to stop taking the output so literally!  Do you really want to see your ideal setup on the models this far out?

[Cold Rain]

1 minute ago, Wow said:

You guys need to stop taking the output so literally!  Do you really want to see your ideal setup on the models this far out?

Nope.  At this range, I want to see snow in southern Florida.

[SnowDeac]

Not sure where to put this, but check out the below from Mount Washington, as the storm up there bombs out. Pretty crazy stuff.

Quote

The next 48 hours will feature extreme winter conditions for the higher summits as a potent Nor’easter barrels through New England. High pressure will exit the region early this morning allowing summit fog to return ahead of the developing system. Coastal low pressure will form off the Mid-Atlantic coast and quickly turn northeast as it begins to strengthen this morning. Southerly winds will shift southeast as the system churns along the east coast streaming warmer air and plenty of moisture into the White Mountain Region. Snow will move in by the late morning and early afternoon and continue to fall steadily through the day. By the late evening, the center of the low will reach the Gulf of Maine and begin a rapid intensification process that will cause conditions to quickly deteriorate. Snowfall rates will increase and the potential for 2-3 inches per hour will exist for a prolonged period overnight. With the rapid intensification process underway, the pressure gradient will tighten and sustained winds will then soar towards the century mark with much higher gusts possible. Convective activity is also in the realm of possibilities as the system intensifies tonight which could lead to thunderstorms and even higher snowfall rates in isolated areas. As the low begins to depart New England on Friday, snow will taper to snow showers by the afternoon with winds remaining on the stronger side. Snow showers will end early Friday night as high pressure pushes drier air into New England with summit fog clearing early Saturday morning. By the time snowfall finally ends early Friday night, total snowfall accumulations across the higher summits will likely range between 2 and 3 feet with even higher amounts possible, especially where convective bands develop and move through. 

With the potential for over 2 feet of snow to fall combined with winds sustained well over hurricane force, the US Forest Service Mount Washington Avalanche Center has issued a backcountry avalanche watch.

 

[pcbjr]

3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Nope.  At this range, I want to see snow in southern Florida.

Far north Fla would be fine  LOL

[griteater]

2 minutes ago, Wow said:

You guys need to stop taking the output so literally!  Do you really want to see your ideal setup on the models this far out?

It's a fair point, but what I want to see this far out is overrunning burying southern MS to Wilmington with snow.  Of course that hardly ever happens...but once the temps start climbing north on the modeling, it's hard to reign them back south unless there's a big block in place.

[BillT]

4 minutes ago, Wow said:

You guys need to stop taking the output so literally!  Do you really want to see your ideal setup on the models this far out?

i got banned elsewhere for daring to state that arguing over the details of the model output of storm in the 10 to 14 day time frame serves no real purpose......and i seriously dont understand why many take each model run as the gospel facts about what will happen?  models are for guidance on the overall picture NOT the details of the actual storm that does or does not happen.

[cg2916]

Meanwhile, the CMC has a very different solution.

[SnowNiner]

6 minutes ago, Wow said:

You guys need to stop taking the output so literally!  Do you really want to see your ideal setup on the models this far out?

Yeah, not perfect but I'd like to see snow modeled to my south, giving me wiggle room if there's juuuust not as much cold air as modeled.  I'd feel alot better if we had a banana high rather than those so far west.  That's my main issue at this point, not really the precip output. 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Just now, cg2916 said:

Meanwhile, the CMC has a very different solution.

Ice Ice baby 

[SnowNiner]

2 minutes ago, cg2916 said:

Meanwhile, the CMC has a very different solution.

Boo, cutter.  Barely a smidge of ice in the CAD areas.  I like the high placement, now it just needs have the storm 600 miles south. 

Anybody glanced at the UKMET?  I remember that leading the way on a few storms last year. 

[WXinCanton]

5 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

Boo, cutter.  Barely a smidge of ice in the CAD areas.  I like the high placement, now it just needs have the storm 600 miles south. 

Anybody glanced at the UKMET?  I remember that leading the way on a few storms last year. 

Only goes out to 144

[packbacker]

11 minutes ago, griteater said:

It's a fair point, but what I want to see this far out is overrunning burying southern MS to Wilmington with snow.  Of course that hardly ever happens...but once the temps start climbing north on the modeling, it's hard to reign them back south unless there's a big block in place.

Like the 12z GEFS...hell bent on a atlantic/ser.  That was disappointing seeing that shift from prior runs.

[NCSNOW]

Don't let the gfs op or any model play you like a yo yo this far out. Can't beleive the it's over tone 7 to 9 days out. 

[SnowNiner]

4 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Like the 12z GEFS...hell bent on a atlantic/ser.  That was disappointing seeing that shift from prior runs.

I don't know, doesn't look as bad as the op, that's for sure.  Still tries to keep a hair of ridging down south though. 

[griteater]

9 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

Boo, cutter.  Barely a smidge of ice in the CAD areas.  I like the high placement, now it just needs have the storm 600 miles south. 

Anybody glanced at the UKMET?  I remember that leading the way on a few storms last year. 

We're too far out for the UKMet, that's how desperate we are 

Actually, the UKMet looks better than the GFS at 144, arguably much better.  More stream separation that wow has outlined, and more cold press into the Ohio Valley.  Could allow a better synch between the high moving east and the SW wave kicking out later

 

[Jon]

32 minutes ago, packbacker said:

This is what a retreating NAO block with SER gets you...

I think it's more due to what Wow has outlined in his post...not due to the changes in the blocking, but you already know my thoughts on that. lol. Wouldn't take much for that bullseye to slide south had the energy worked out a bit differently. Run was colder regardless of block