packbacker Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: That looks pretty good! Is that percent of mean measured against the mean for that period or for the entire winter? I'm assuming it's X% vs the average for 2/1 - 3/6, although I don't know what the average is for that period. RDU got 5-6" so it's not as big as it looks. But, 5-6" seems improbable at the moment though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 25 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: What happened in 78? I was only 4. I wasn't even born yet , gramps;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said: Down here too. I was in 10th grade in 78. I do remember the cold and snow. The meteorologist didn't have the equipment they have today but it seems they were better st forecasting than today. You have to wonder if ther is too much information. There was a meteorologist ,Frank Deal and he was pretty good at hitting storms. I remember back then they would forecast a low number then a lot of times the storm would over produce and they would have to up the totals. Yes!! Frank Deal was the best! There will never be anyone as enjoyable for me to watch give a weather forecast than him. And yes, they used to always up the totals as the storm started. Man, those were the good old days right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: RDU got 5-6" so it's not as big as it looks. But, 5-6" seems improbable at the moment though. Yeah that's anemic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: I wasn't even born yet , gramps;) Lol. Go get my bag phone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 48 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: What happened in 78? I was only 4. child's play http://www.southbendtribune.com/multimedia/photos/throwback-thursday-remembering-the-great-blizzard-of/collection_b0c42f60-e26c-11e6-8660-53047fefb187.html#1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Down here too. I was in 10th grade in 78. I do remember the cold and snow. The meteorologist didn't have the equipment they have today but it seems they were better st forecasting than today. You have to wonder if ther is too much information. There was a meteorologist ,Frank Deal and he was pretty good at hitting storms. I remember back then they would forecast a low number then a lot of times the storm would over produce and they would have to up the totals. Yeah I know!! I was just being sarcastic because JB had posted it. I remember him well he was my favorite weatherman growing up. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowacane Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 3 hours ago, Cold Rain said: Yeah that's anemic. That's a blizzard compared to what we get these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 6z GFS says watch the 16th timeframe! Could be good!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 36 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: 6z GFS says watch the 16th timeframe! Could be good!! 00Z was better for us, still its the proverbial 10 day threat....we have roughly 30 or so days left in which we can reasonably expect snow outside of the mts.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Lol.... gefs is being run from JB's basement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Lol.... gefs is being run from JB's basement. LOL! Only 16 days til glory! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 31 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: LOL! Only 16 days til glory! Day 8-12 looks great, blocky/cold. Even we can't mess that up...can we Always nice when the PV pays a visit to the lakes with a stout NAO sitting on it's back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Normally we would be snow shovel shopping in the east with a big positively tilted ULL deep in Tx with a strong 50/50 with a stout -NAO/+PNA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, packbacker said: Normally we would be snow shovel shopping in the east with a big positively tilted ULL deep in Tx with a strong 50/50 with a stout -NAO/+PNA... But not today, Zurg?! it is always looking so great at 8-12 days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just saw this on Twitter: Now we get to see how much potential snow we're not getting even earlier! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 9 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: But not today, Zurg?! it is always looking so great at 8-12 days! I don't have detailed EPS maps anymore, which is probably a good thing, because the GEFS looks better at day 8-10. Bunch of lows down in the gulf and looks plenty cold. EPS is not as cold though. And yes, the GEFS is showing a bunch of lows over the lakes as the PV is sitting right over the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 8 hours ago, Snowacane said: That's a blizzard compared to what we get these days. Ha yes that is true! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 EPS trend with the NAO...if we really want to have some fun need to push the w/c ridge up into the pole a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 24 minutes ago, packbacker said: I don't have detailed EPS maps anymore, which is probably a good thing, because the GEFS looks better at day 8-10. Bunch of lows down in the gulf and looks plenty cold. EPS is not as cold though. And yes, the GEFS is showing a bunch of lows over the lakes as the PV is sitting right over the lakes. Is that a SE ridge flare up ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Is that a SE ridge flare up ? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Well I had about given up (and I felt free, free like a bird)...but after the 15th I've got to say to me, it looks pretty good. Very blocky, -AO/-NAO and a +PNA mixed in around day 10. Looks like a split flow here and there too. The cold seems to be coming back to our side of the globe a bit. Perhaps the SSW and MJO is finally doing some good? Maybe the last two weeks of February something could be possible. But man at this point, it feels like spring already. I've jumped off the cliff. But I'm at the bottom glancing up. Haven't started climbing yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 ^^ GFS Ensemble has the nice +PNA and -NAO look that could possibly even trend better/colder in time IMO....however, Euro Ens and Canadian Ens don't agree past day 10 and quickly go into more of a strong el nino look with the north pac low moving into a position off the west coast, so it's a flood of mild flow across the U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 19 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Is that a SE ridge flare up ? No, not even close.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 23 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Is that a SE ridge flare up ? It's probably just showing the marginally cold air we usually have to deal with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: ^^ GFS Ensemble has the nice +PNA and -NAO look that could possibly even trend better/colder in time IMO....however, Euro Ens and Canadian Ens past day 10 quickly go into more of a strong el nino look with the north pac low moving into a position off the west coast, so it's a flood of mild flow across the U.S. It's all about the -NAO right now. MJO and PNA are just icing on the cake. If these modeled indices are to be believed, then the 2 meter temps and the storm tracks will respond better in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, griteater said: ^^ GFS Ensemble has the nice +PNA and -NAO look that could possibly even trend better/colder in time IMO....however, Euro Ens and Canadian Ens don't agree past day 10 and quickly go into more of a strong el nino look with the north pac low moving into a position off the west coast, so it's a flood of mild flow across the U.S. So GFS vs CMC / Euro? Not a good probability if GFS or gefs is only showing this!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Looking at the indexes, we have, for what seems like the first time this winter, a favorable alignment coming up. Deeply -AO, neutral to slightly -NAO, and a robust +PNA. Plus, the MJO is progged by all models to go strongly into Phase 8 before lowering amplitude and heading into Phase 1. These are all good things. The not as good news is A) The coldest air has moved over to the other side of the world during this favorable pattern (below), leaving us with marginally cold air. In mid-Feb, it would be more preferable to have Canada in the icebox. If the pattern stays aligned this way, then we could see Canada and then the US get very cold, down the line...but it will take time. And B ) What Grit said. We need agreement from other model suites if we are to take seriously a sustained change toward a wintry pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 13 minutes ago, griteater said: ^^ GFS Ensemble has the nice +PNA and -NAO look that could possibly even trend better/colder in time IMO....however, Euro Ens and Canadian Ens don't agree past day 10 and quickly go into more of a strong el nino look with the north pac low moving into a position off the west coast, so it's a flood of mild flow across the U.S. Yep, that's the thing to watch...does the EPS come on board with the GEFS past day 10 or no. Again, I've always liked the GEFS long range. We'll see. I'm ready for either one frankly. Something about late Februarys though. Active for the SE, along with phase MJO and SSW...makes it believable in my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 if these 2 lows would combine it would be pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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