packbacker Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Good grief...overnight Op GFS went nuts with the blocking in the extended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 12 minutes ago, packbacker said: Good grief...overnight Op GFS went nuts with the blocking in the extended. I'm sure that enormous negative anomaly off the NW coast is a good feature. #winter2017whatevercanscrewupthepatternwillmostcertainlydevelop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: I'm sure that enormous negative anomaly off the NW coast is a good feature. #winter2017whatevercanscrewupthepatternwillmostcertainlydevelop Yep...the blocking looks impressive, the PAC has sucked all winter. It's always something :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, packbacker said: Yep...the blocking looks impressive, the PAC has sucked all winter. It's always something :-) Pac does suck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 22 minutes ago, packbacker said: Good grief...overnight Op GFS went nuts with the blocking in the extended. Two negatives in that sentence : op GFS and Long range! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 31 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Two negatives in that sentence : op GFS and Long range! They are posted all the time. When they show warmth we jump on them. We will probably see great blocking in March or April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 hour ago, packbacker said: Even Mack will like this setup, NAO please. Lack of snowcover to our north will be a problem, but we will worry about that later. The old horseshoe. Bring it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 11 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: Robert basically saying AN into March and we are likely looking at the warmest winter in our lifetime! Things just keep getting better! GEFS goes out to Feb 22nd and it looks blocky so hopefully shortly thereafter we can try and squeeze in a better pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 13 minutes ago, Met1985 said: They are posted all the time. When they show warmth we jump on them. We will probably see great blocking in March or April. I'm really at the point where I would like one good paste storm this month and then warmth. As I get older I like the cold less and less. If we can score one more storm it will be a great winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 My one warm post of the day...for everyone that is going to freak out about it, now is the time to look away. RDU was +10F from Jan 10-31st. We have a chance to be +10F for the first half of Feb...that will be impressive to go from Jan 10th to Feb 15th averaging +10F temp anomalies. If we are going to be AN we should atleast do it in style. Some doozies of +AN days coming up...#FabFeb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 SOI looks to go negative in the 6-10, the last SOI crash in mid Jan worked out well for us.... This one will be different as it will be coupled with Ph8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Sounds good. Didn't have to spend too much money on gas this year and a chance at finishing the season at climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Wonder what would happen if that piece of energy over the lakes drops down into that ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 ^ Heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: ^ Heavy rain. Most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: ^ Heavy rain. Bingo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Not horrible: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Seems like the POSSIBILITY of snow is always 10+ days out doesn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Not horrible: Should atleast be able to score a low 40s and drizzle wedge, with that look! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 We know it's usually better to be north and west but the 12 GFS shows a pattern where it could be better to be north and east (through the SE). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Not a bad look. Look at that block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 You know it's a rough winter when you get a stout -NAO/-AO/-EPO and we are a furnace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, packbacker said: Not a bad look. Look at that block. That's a great 500 look! I bet we rain even with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 17 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: That's a great 500 look! I bet we rain even with that. To compare it to some of our past big winter storms that had pac low with stout -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just out in fantasy land, but here is the 12z GFS snow depth map at hour 264 (just states there is still possibilities): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 hour ago, mrdaddyman said: Seems like the POSSIBILITY of snow is always 10+ days out doesn't it? 100% of no snow with that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: 100% of no snow with that look. SE trend coming soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 57 minutes ago, packbacker said: To compare it to some of our past big winter storms that had pac low with stout -NAO. Wow, those are some great analogs to our modeled pattern. Big snowstorms. Also, 1960 is thrown in there for good measure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 I mean, those are great looks and all, but will there be any cold on our side of the globe at all, even if we get all that beautiful H5 stuff? If we don't recharge the source region, the only thing that blocking will do is jam up the mild Pacific air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Wow, those are some great analogs to our modeled pattern. Big snowstorms. Also, 1960 is thrown in there for good measure.Don't mention 1960 around Mack, he'll throw a snowball at you!! 🤠 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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