mackerel_sky Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 2 hours ago, Cold Rain said: We're going to get a system. But temps are going to be the problem. You can pretty much forget this one at this point. I don't understand all the negativity!? I mean we still have a storm showing up and it's still 4-5 days away! It will trend in our favor, they almos always do! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 6z GFS was interesting, both pieces of energy were stronger, the Scandinavian ridge was stronger so the PV pressed a littler further SW. All that added up to 55F rain for RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 21 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: I don't understand all the negativity!? I mean we still have a storm showing up and it's still 4-5 days away! It will trend in our favor, they almos always do! It's trending in our favor...... if you need rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 I can't quite put into words how absolutely unbelievable it is that we have a solidly +PNA, solidly -AO and the MJO going deep into phases 7-8 and we're still torching/going to torch. Even with all the global warming you can muster up, that should NOT happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, Jonathan said: I can't quite put into words how absolutely unbelievable it is that we have a solidly +PNA, solidly -AO and the MJO going deep into phases 7-8 and we're still torching/going to torch. Even with all the global warming you can muster up, that should NOT happen. Europe and Asia are in the freezer. It usually takes time to flip things around from something like this but we are already out to Feb 21st. Looks bleak...maybe we get lucky end of Feb into early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: Europe and Asia are in the freezer. It usually takes time to flip things around from something like this but we are already out to Feb 21st. Looks bleak...maybe we get lucky end of Feb into early March. Insane. So, even with reasonably favored teleconnections that usually yield us a decent winter period, what on earth is our missing "link" right now? Which teleconnection are we messing up to cause the cold dump (or bathtub slosh for mack and Frosty) to be directly on the other side of the pole? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 hour ago, franklin NCwx said: Remember when the euro was a good model? What happened to cold and no storm at all? At beyond 72-96 hours the Euro no longer is that superior. Inside of that window if you ignore its dry QPF bias it's still the best model although inside 30 I would say the RGEM may be better although the RGEM has struggled this winter between Philly and Richmond it's done well seemingly everywhere north and south of there. The official stats may show the Euro is still best beyond 96, but the problem is all those verification studies do is verify 500 heights. That doesn't tell you which model may be best in regards to forecasting storm systems. Because you're including numerous zonal flow or benign weather pattern days in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Insane. So, even with reasonably favored teleconnections that usually yield us a decent winter period, what on earth is our missing "link" right now? Which teleconnection are we messing up to cause the cold dump (or bathtub slosh for mack and Frosty) to be directly on the other side of the pole? Day 11+ the PAC low is to close to the west coast, we lose a cold delivering PNA, with a +EPO and +NAO. The AO looks positive to me or neutral at best. Day 10 is a pretty good pattern but it breaks down fairly quickly. Back the PAC low west a hair it would be even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 39 minutes ago, packbacker said: Europe and Asia are in the freezer. It usually takes time to flip things around from something like this but we are already out to Feb 21st. Looks bleak...maybe we get lucky end of Feb into early March. Magical March will save us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Spent to much time tracking another rain event. Nice 60F rain on the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 10 minutes ago, packbacker said: Spent to much time tracking another rain event. Nice 60F rain on the GFS... Trending 24 hours faster will do that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 13 minutes ago, Isopycnic said: Magical March will save us. I think JB said it best with his anal log the other day: March 1960! Yes, he actually said that!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Just now, Jon said: Trending 24 hours faster will do that Yep...we kind of needed the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 12 minutes ago, packbacker said: Spent to much time tracking another rain event. Nice 60F rain on the GFS... Maybe it'll bring the cold to set the table for the next storm! V day special! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Maybe it'll bring the cold to set the table for the next storm! V day special! What we need is a 80 degree day cause whenever that happens in Feb we get a snowstorm....nah just kidding....from 00Z CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 2 hours ago, mrdaddyman said: Models do an awesome job 5+ days out when they are forecasting rain but can't get a snow forecast right 24 hours out from a storm. I think this one is pretty much done for. I'll agree seems easy for the models to predict rain but the snow is another thing, plus we should have already had another snowstorm to track, this is unbelievable . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, fritschy said: I'll agree seems easy for the models to predict rain but the snow is another thing, plus we should have already had another snowstorm to track, this is unbelievable . I wouldn't count anything out yet. Euro not out yet and could easily dismiss the GFS. And the Canadian has nothing of interest. This thing coulld be in either Chicago or Wilmington and neither would surprise me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 This winter is just like an NC State basketball team. It doesn't matter how many favorable teleconnections or how much talent you line up. The coaching sucks and you just ain't winning. Best to dissolve all expectations of anything except sucktitude and move on to bass fishing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Ran across this-- Would be nice to pull that rabbit out of the hat Thursday and its certainly something that can happen It does snow in unfavorable patterns sometimes just like we can miss in favorable patterns. But as far as this whole adjustment, the MJO is the big think for me right now as I got burned bad when it went more strongly into the warm phases than I thought it would..but then again the rise in the SOI came along, but its going to be interesting to see if when this fall in the SOI comes if that is the actual start of the pattern that leads us to the new el nino which I believe now strongly is coming, and with the MJO response a correction the other way as the modeling is showing for what is now day 9-13. We can fight the battle beyond that when we see how the next 10 days pan out I am dwelling on this because this MJO amplitude is a big deal. It has not gone as strong as forecasted in Feb since 1988 that I can find and the 2 case samples lead to prolonged late season colder than normal. Ride that horse till it bucks you in the end................ or will it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 2 hours ago, packbacker said: Europe and Asia are in the freezer. It usually takes time to flip things around from something like this but we are already out to Feb 21st. Looks bleak...maybe we get lucky end of Feb into early March. Wow if this verifies. Virtually all of NA from Greenland to Baja, from Florida to Alaska warm. Virtually all of northern Eurasia, from Iberia to Kamchatka, at or below normal. I really want to understand what would cause this sort of distribution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 33 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: This winter is just like an NC State basketball team. It doesn't matter how many favorable teleconnections or how much talent you line up. The coaching sucks and you just ain't winning. Best to dissolve all expectations of anything except sucktitude and move on to bass fishing. But in your analogy there is still a causative factor: bad coaching. What is our "bad coaching" for this winter. It doesn't appear to be AGW because it is fine over on the other side of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: I think JB said it best with his anal log the other day: March 1960! Yes, he actually said that!!!! Just hang in there Mack, JB might have you a surprise!!! lol. I'll be sure and let you know if it turns cold and snows late Feb-March. He's hit his snow forecast for my back yard already, little lacking on the cold. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 15 minutes ago, cbmclean said: But in your analogy there is still a causative factor: bad coaching. What is our "bad coaching" for this winter. It doesn't appear to be AGW because it is fine over on the other side of the world. Don't know. In both cases, the background state for success is missing. For whatever reason, Gottfried is not a good coach. And for whatever reason, the background state for a cold US just doesn't exist this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 22 minutes ago, cbmclean said: But in your analogy there is still a causative factor: bad coaching. What is our "bad coaching" for this winter. It doesn't appear to be AGW because it is fine over on the other side of the world. La Nina. We almost always have a bad winter in ninas. Add to that no atlantic blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 hour ago, franklin NCwx said: La Nina. We almost always have a bad winter in ninas. Add to that no atlantic blocking. In addition to ongoing background warming, we've had a classic, warm La Nina pattern thus far... And the AO has been really high...Dec 1 to Jan 31 averaged AO was the 4th highest on record since 1951. All winters are unique, but El Ninos that aren't super strong give us the best shot at below normal temperatures in the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 2 hours ago, Cold Rain said: And for whatever reason, the background state for a cold US just doesn't exist this year. cold is and has been in the wrong sphere - why? that's a topic for discussion, but cold has and is a missing factor, despite all else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 34 minutes ago, griteater said: In addition to ongoing background warming, we've had a classic, warm La Nina pattern thus far... And the AO has been really high...Dec 1 to Jan 31 averaged AO was the 4th highest on record since 1951. All winters are unique, but El Ninos that aren't super strong give us the best shot at below normal temperatures in the southeast. Pretty much the composite for the worst of our Nina's. The aleutian ridge did help to give the PAC NW an epic winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Seems like yesterday when the GFS had the slp down in the Caribbean...12z para has a nice interior NE event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 3 hours ago, cbmclean said: Wow if this verifies. Virtually all of NA from Greenland to Baja, from Florida to Alaska warm. Virtually all of northern Eurasia, from Iberia to Kamchatka, at or below normal. I really want to understand what would cause this sort of distribution. Globular worming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 21 minutes ago, Isopycnic said: Globular worming Going to really be interesting over the next few years as the sun goes to sleep to see if there really is any merit to a very significant solar min and global climate. I think there is, but we will know for sure soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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