Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017

[Wow]

Obviously we're going to see a wide assortment of different scenarios in the next several days.  The cold is likely coming with the arctic front pushing far south.  The question is the status of the energy rounding down the W coast.  There are two distinct pieces by 18z Jan 5 along the W coast.  Yesterday's 12z GFS killed out the first piece with little to no overrunning moisture during the Jan 6-7 time frame and consolidated the 2nd which set up a big snowstorm around jan 9 since it gave time for the HP to move into prime placement in the NE. 

The Euro, meanwhile, has a much more robust first wave and produced a significant storm, giving it room to consolidate and pull a low all the up the east coast.   The GFS since has moved more in this direction a bit with a sheared first s/w and a significant overrunning event.  The location of the arctic front as it moves south will determine the snow axis location should this first s/w hold on as it gets chewed up by the PV overhead.

Should the first wave be sheared out quickly enough per the GFS, it'll allow the second wave to develop and by then the cold will be well established.  The 6z GFS this morning has the Jan 9 storm that yesterday's 12z had, just a bit weaker and farther south.

So there are 2 waves to watch.  First wave, if Euro has its way, would hold its own but will have cold air issues as it still hasn't established over the area yet with the HP still back over the plains - or, if the GFS is correct, could be a sheared out wave with overrunning event with a stripe of big snow totals.  Second wave, either a non-starter per the Euro since it develops the first wave, or could be a big player per the GFS if it kicks out the first wave quickly enough.

6z GFS valid 18z jan 5

6z GFS valid 18z jan 6 - sheared out first wave with overrunning snow stripe

0z Euro valid 0z jan 7 - develops the first wave

[superjames1992]

17 minutes ago, TiltedStorm said:

When do you guys start a thread for this threat?


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In recent winters, we've usually waited until 3-4 days out or so.  So, we have awhile to go.

[SnowNiner]

3 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Yeah I'm with you as well as several others on here I'm sure. It's just one of the options and thankfully it was on its own without any ens support.

Biggest news is this threat has legs. So instead of worrying about how it crosses the finish line in 8 to 10 days, I'm more interested in getting it to the starting line in 4 days. Then we can start the whaling and nashing of teeth on just how the race will be run. It is nice to have something to track besides a pattern change I can tell you that.

Yep, so much more interesting when we have an verified threat.  

 

18 minutes ago, griteater said:

Maybe it's personal bias and long way to go, but I can't shake the idea that this is going to be a climber and a moderate hit for central VA into the mid-atlantic (Bob Chill country).  The ENE overrunning setup looks good overall, but I don't trust that the temps are going to hold for a big hit in our forum.  The transient Greenland ridge and configuration over the NE needs to overperform.  

That's my biggest fear as well.  I don't think we're whiffed at this point, I think we have a storm but the cold doesn't seem to add up.  I has the feeling of a I-40 north kind of thing.  There's no high to the northeast, it's out west, not really a CAD setup etc.  I'm just skeptical of the cold at this point. 

[Wow]

Ideal scenario?  The first wave shears out but still brings along a ton of overrunning precip to minimize WAA since the core of the cold is still too far west.  Then, the second wave develops as the high situates itself over the NE ala 12z GFS.

[avalanche]

If you are in the area of West Jefferson/Boone NC to southern Virginia, you need to be on the lookout for some possible sleet/fzrn from the northern extent of the precip field. It could cause some issues if everything pans out.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

1 minute ago, avalanche said:

If you are in the area of West Jefferson/Boone NC to southern Virginia, you need to be on the lookout for some possible sleet/fzrn from the northern extent of the precip field. It could cause some issues if everything pans out.

What exactly are you talking about? You aren't from around here are you?

[mackerel_sky]

5 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

What exactly are you talking about? You aren't from around here are you?

Lol! Yeah, if anybody's gonna get snow, it's the cities he mentioned! Only time we get ice and the mountains get rain, usually during a strong CAD, which is not showing up currently!

[avalanche]

6 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

What exactly are you talking about? You aren't from around here are you?

LOL, talking about weather. My apologies if I don't speak "foothill language". I've lived part of my life in Kansas, Tennessee, etc, and everywhere people articulate things differently.

[strongwxnc]

Ideal scenario?  The first wave shears out but still brings along a ton of overrunning precip to minimize WAA since the core of the cold is still too far west.  Then, the second wave develops as the high situates itself over the NE ala 12z GFS.

Thanks for the thoughts wow.


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[avalanche]

1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

Lol! Yeah, if anybody's gonna get snow, it's the cities he mentioned! Only time we get ice and the mountains get rain, usually during a strong CAD, which is not showing up currently!

Agreed. Merely reiterating what has been brought to the table for this area. Would love to see an all snow event.

[WXinCanton]

1 minute ago, avalanche said:

Agreed. Merely reiterating what has been brought to the table for this area. Would love to see an all snow event.

I'd put your location in your profile

[FlatLander48]

4 minutes ago, avalanche said:

Agreed. Merely reiterating what has been brought to the table for this area. Would love to see an all snow event.

WAY too soon to be talking precip types. We have to get the pattern going, then we gotta make sure we have a storm at all. no need to even think about precip types til 5 days out, then start really focusing on it when it's about 72 hours out.

[Cold Rain]

4 minutes ago, avalanche said:

Agreed. Merely reiterating what has been brought to the table for this area. Would love to see an all snow event.

My guess at this point would be mostly snow in the far NW/mountain areas, with mixing issues across the northern areas and a cold rain south of there.  On the other hand, if we see subsequent model cycles that strengthen the blocking, then I would be inclined to expand the snow/wintry area farther east and south.  Unfortunately, after years of watching models over-press cold air in the LR, I'm not too optimistic that stronger blocking will turn out to be the case.

[griteater]

06z GFS Para has a suppressed slider with some light snows on the NW precip shield from southern MS to central/eastern NC...it's wow's sheared out 1st wave, overrunning scenario

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

43 minutes ago, avalanche said:

LOL, talking about weather. My apologies if I don't speak "foothill language". I've lived part of my life in Kansas, Tennessee, etc, and everywhere people articulate things differently.

It has nothing to do with language.... We are talking about the western NC micro-climate and how the sn/ip/zr distribution normally pans out. Freezing rain and sleet does not occur in the mountains under those conditions.

[LithiaWx]

On 12/27/2016 at 4:19 PM, FallsLake said:

Just have the 850 map. Not a real CAD look but it looks like the cold would not be pushed out. 

 

This isn't going to be popular but we have this whole cold not verifying as cold as progged issue all winter.  Don't see why this would buck that trend.  I see the cutoff line of any potential precip type to move north.  It's awesome we have a threat to track but let's be real about the cold. 

[mackerel_sky]

4 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

This isn't going to be popular but we have this whole cold not verifying as cold as progged issue all winter.  Don't see why this would buck that trend.  I see the cutoff line of any potential precip type to move north.  It's awesome we have a threat to track but let's be real about the cold. 

Looks fine to me

[Cold Rain]

2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Looks fine to me

High pressure is way too far to the west on that map.  If you have a system coming through, it's not going to have much trouble warming the mid and low levels if there is no cold air feed.  I'm just going off of the map that Marietta posted.  Later frames may move the high into a better position.

[Jon]

Coming in much colder 12z GFS could be a nice hit.

[LithiaWx]

3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

High pressure is way too far to the west on that map.  If you have a system coming through, it's not going to have much trouble warming the mid and low levels if there is no cold air feed.  I'm just going off of the map that Marietta posted.  Later frames may move the high into a better position.

I still think there are going to be some winners from the eventual event.  I'm too far south here.  Cut nc in half the northern half is in much better shape save the mountains.

[DopplerWx]

most of nc still rain at 195.

[Cold Rain]

2 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

I still think there are going to be some winners from the eventual event.  I'm too far south here.  Cut nc in half the northern half is in much better shape save the mountains.

I hope some folks can score.  It looks to get pretty ugly after this.

[griteater]

11 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

High pressure is way too far to the west on that map.  If you have a system coming through, it's not going to have much trouble warming the mid and low levels if there is no cold air feed.  I'm just going off of the map that Marietta posted.  Later frames may move the high into a better position.

High gets buried in Sun Valley, Idaho this run.  Rain from lunch next Thurs to Sat morning, snow in VA

[Jon]

3 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

most of nc still rain at 195.

Slight improvement over the 6z, but not gonna be the big one, still a fairly long strung out event...if we can get a little colder it would be massive for many folks.

[Cold Rain]

Just now, griteater said:

High gets buried in Sun Valley, Idaho this run.  Rain from lunch Thurs to Sat morning, snow in VA

Pretty much what I expected.  Fits the pattern we've been in.  We have got to shake things up at H5.  Not just for a couple of frames.  But big time.

[SnowNiner]

4 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

most of nc still rain at 195.

Yeah, this looks about right.  I don't think this is going to do it for us.  Oh well.  We need a CAD and a High in the northeast.  pressing down from the Rockies ain't going to do it. 

[DopplerWx]

Just now, Jon said:

Slight improvement over the 6z, but not gonna be the big one, still a fairly long strung out event...if we can get a little colder it would be massive for many folks.

yea this run is a miserable 37 degree rain.  nc/va border a icy mix at 219, still cold rain in rdu.

[packbacker]

2 hours ago, griteater said:

Maybe it's personal bias and long way to go, but I can't shake the idea that this is going to be a climber and a moderate hit for central VA into the mid-atlantic (Bob Chill country).  The ENE overrunning setup looks good overall, but I don't trust that the temps are going to hold for a big hit in our forum.  The transient Greenland ridge and configuration over the NE needs to overperform.  

Like the GFS shows...actually surprised how close we are to wintery precip with this crappy a block and SER.

[DopplerWx]

va does well, temps screw us in nc.  34 and rain.

[Cold Rain]

1 minute ago, packbacker said:

Like the GFS shows...actually surprised how close we are to wintery precip with this crappy a block and SER.

Every single feature on that map is several hundred miles too far to the west, except the north Atlantic thumb ridge.  Look at the direction of the trough.  Terrible.