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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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11 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

He's talking about the free video at the bottom of www.weatherbell.com.  Bwahahahaha!!  You think Mack pays for Weatherbell??  Bwahahahaha!!  He hates JB.

I didn't know there was a free video!  I thought all these years I have been paying the WB premium for JB exclusives. :-)

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1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

He puts em on FB, but you can't pull that up on your alltell bagphone 

Lol, true.  It's hard enough uploading images here with my Compuserv service!

Speaking of...here's the 12z GFS at 120.  Nice 975 L over the Lakes with an incoming dry wall of high pressure.  Sigh.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20.png

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3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

It did at 120.  That's what I get for using dial up.  You are already 12 hours ahead of me. :(

Looking better at 138, although the shortwave to me looks weaker than yesterday.  HP picking up steam at 144.

Use instantweathermaps.com  It's already at 156... much closer this run...I don't buy that high pressure building in quite so strong and as far south as 6z,

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Wave sharpens enough at 156 to give N. MS and N. AL some light snow.  Big cold in the east.  If we can finally get one of these waves to do something (which is just timing), we have some good cold air to work with.  Overall, I'm fine with how this one turned out.  Now, what happens through the balance of the run?

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3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Poof at 150.

Edit:  Ya'll beat me to it again.  I'll check out Instantweathermaps.

Agreed on the cold press.  The take-away is that there is a shortwave and there is cold air.  There are possibilities.

About what I take from it...not sure if Euro showed a SW like this but would be nice if it had something in the ballpark like this.  It wouldn't take much to sharpen that up.

gfs_z500_vort_us_28.png

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The high pressure was much weaker early on this run.  I don't buy the sudden strengthening and plunge south.  Around hour 132 the High is about 4 mb lower than the 6z run (1028 vs. 1032) over N. Dakota.  It rapidly strengthens to 1036 in the next few frames.  It that doesn't happen, or doesn't drop quite as far south (50-100 miles), then there will be a more significant storm. How many times have we seen the GFS overpower the northern stream energy?  It's a known bias.

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