BIG FROSTY Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Canadian has the low, but it fizzles out around Missouri.Darn Canadians Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 6z fizzles the low out over TX - no storm for the 10th. Looks like the high coming out of Canada is stronger and colder - potentially suppressing the low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 'Still a week out so not worried unless multiple runs say no storm thunk the low went way south it appears of the Florida coast . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Yep, GFS finally caved to every other model!! Atleast it gets cold a day or two !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Yep, GFS finally caved to every other model!! Atleast it gets cold a day or two !! Gfs paragraph still has the storm @150 stillstill think it will be back next run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Looks like the cutter before this " threat" , was too strong and brought too much of a cold push, lol! Luckily, GFS is often way too cold in long range, so lose the crazy cold and gain a rainstorm! That'll be on the models by Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Gfs para had not been showing a storm till now it has it going to south and snow in east Tennesseeand some of NC so I believe the gfs might have lost it for just a run and it will be back at 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Gefs is still showing some snow return on the 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 I'll just go ahead and insert the " it's right where we want it at this point" clause out there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 27 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: I'll just go ahead and insert the " it's right where we want it at this point" clause out there! I agree. I'd rather see the cold suppressing a potential storm at day 7 than seeing what was portrayed yesterday (marginal temps, etc.). I'm actually more interested now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 16 minutes ago, FallsLake said: I agree. I'd rather see the cold suppressing a potential storm at day 7 than seeing what was portrayed yesterday (marginal temps, etc.). I'm actually more interested now. Agree better no storm or a suppressed storm than a cutter or NW trend at this point.....I feel fairly optimistic that there will be a few legit threats over the next 2-3 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 DGEX is interesting with a late bloomer that plasters the immediate coastline of SC/NC. Wilimington gets a foot, but 30 miles inland...nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 From a friend Closet Cold Pool Analogs: 2013 and 1960 The Cold pool in the Pacific promotes cold Febs and Marches in the two cases where it was strongest, with March being the coldest of the 2 The cold pool, for the east is your foe early, friend late!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Got some light snow falling!! https://vimeo.com/202377645Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 15 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: From a friend Closet Cold Pool Analogs: 2013 and 1960 The Cold pool in the Pacific promotes cold Febs and Marches in the two cases where it was strongest, with March being the coldest of the 2 The cold pool, for the east is your foe early, friend late!! LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLO! Last second donation call for desperate Carolinians!!! Only the greatest stretch of winter in the history of the world! Keep em paying through March! Genius! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 8 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLO! Last second donation call for desperate Carolinians!!! Only the greatest stretch of winter in the history of the world! Keep em paying through March! Genius! I hope the 9th and 10th storm pans out, we're due to see some snow, tired of this winter, I'm ready for this weather in April or May not Jan. and Feb..... We're Due Man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 The 0z GFS out in ridiculous land illustrates how we can salvage the 2nd half of February. The positive PNA sustains itself for the bulk of the run, pumping a nice ridge in the west. This extends up into the EPO space and allows the flow to come out of the arctic. It also blocks the parade of systems out on the north Pacific, which essentially pinwheel around. Blocking over the Pole has developed, resulting in a strongly negative AO. This allows the PV to regenerate in eastern Canada. The 6z GEFS somewhat agrees with this. The 0z GEFS and GEPS have a bit of a different look. But if we do move in this direction, I'd expect the last half of the month to feature a chance or two of a winter storm in the SE. The 6z GFS looks awful. As far as the indexes go, the AO looks to drop fairly negative, the NAO looks to remain positive, maybe diving toward neutral near the end of the run, and the PNA looks to go fairly strongly positive. The MJO is forecast to go strongly into Phase 8, which is good for cold in the east. So all in all, not a bad look. Hopefully, the EPS is starting to step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Oh, here's your daily wind map. Looking to get in on the excitement in NC and VA now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Still learning a lot, but this seems like a really nice jet stream pattern for us to get snow. Cold coming from the north and winds coming from the gulf to (hopefully) drag moisture along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Might be kite weather! Interested to see how these may play into the 10th system if there is one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 We got us a wind trend going! AJR, the trough axis may be a bit too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Run still coming in, but the Nam is determined to get precip in on the 5th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLO! Last second donation call for desperate Carolinians!!! Only the greatest stretch of winter in the history of the world! Keep em paying through March! Genius! I never paid much attention to what he said when I had WB access but this is bordering on stupid. He picks two extreme Feb/March winters as his justification that winter will turn. Meanwhile we will have a lot of work to do to turn Feb around, already in a big hole and it's been 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Don't lose heart, Pack. We still have strong Phase 8 coming. On a side note, my member title had SHOW, not SNOW, Shields Activated. I am ashamed to say that this little mistake has likely been the culprit behind this disastrous winter. The issue has been repaired, and snow shields are now operating at full strength. It's time to get ready for cold and winter weather as we close out the season. Thanks to Mrdaddyman for saving what's left of the winter! Now, watch the 12z Euro show a snowstorm today. Get ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 29 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: Run still coming in, but the Nam is determined to get precip in on the 5th Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 21 minutes ago, packbacker said: I never paid much attention to what he said when I had WB access but this is bordering on stupid. He picks two extreme Feb/March winters as his justification that winter will turn. Meanwhile we will have a lot of work to do to turn Feb around, already in a big hole and it's been 2 days. Go watch his video! He shows anal logs for his 13 and 60 comparisons! His Jan/Feb maps preceding were torchy, like a map you would post! You know how we feel about anallogs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 43 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: Run still coming in, but the Nam is determined to get precip in on the 5th I think we're grasping for straws that aren't there. I would have thought by now we would of had another snowstorm move in but it just isn't happening. not even a fantasy storm 10 days from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 24 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Huh? Yea it looked good at that hour that I posted, but it didn't turn into anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 44 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Go watch his video! He shows anal logs for his 13 and 60 comparisons! His Jan/Feb maps preceding were torchy, like a map you would post! You know how we feel about anallogs! LOL...I can't anymore, I gave up WB. I can only imagine what he says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 9 minutes ago, packbacker said: LOL...I can't anymore, I gave up WB. I can only imagine what he says. He's talking about the free video at the bottom of www.weatherbell.com. Bwahahahaha!! You think Mack pays for Weatherbell?? Bwahahahaha!! He hates JB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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