Mrwolf1972 Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 cmc has the storm but the snow more north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Willing to bet , no ensemble support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: cmc has the storm but the snow more north It must have already calculated the NW trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Basically none of the 50 EPS members last night had anything like this. Chance of this is very very low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: Basically none of the 50 EPS members last night had anything like this. Chance of this is very very low. Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 28m28 minutes ago More 12z GFS with a wintry weather threat next Thursday/Friday. Some ensemble members from ECMWF/GFS have shown this last couple cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: Basically none of the 50 EPS members last night had anything like this. Chance of this is very very low. One of these days, GFS is gonna score a coup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Shut up GFS, you're just trolling. During the height of the storm, 2m temps are toasty, and never get below freezing for CLT. Pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: Shut up GFS, you're just trolling. During the height of the storm, 2m temps are toasty, and never get below freezing for CLT. Pass. Hey, all we care about is blue showing up on the map. We'll worry about silly things like temps later! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, packfan98 said: Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 28m28 minutes ago More 12z GFS with a wintry weather threat next Thursday/Friday. Some ensemble members from ECMWF/GFS have shown this last couple cycles. Three out of 50 have significant snow in northern NC. The rest have no real storm for anyone in the SE save the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Hey, all we care about is blue showing up on the map. We'll worry about silly things like temps later! lol, yeah, and I didn't even get any blue over my house...until after the storm was in the ocean! I love those waiting on the change over threats with lows in the mid 30s! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 12 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: Shut up GFS, you're just trolling. During the height of the storm, 2m temps are toasty, and never get below freezing for CLT. Pass. Who cares!? Dynamic cooling, FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 The potential was there as packbacker and I spoke on this morning...with the energy and varying ridging and pacific looks, even within day 7, you'll get a run in your favor at some point. What the 12z GFS ensembles say is important, inside day 7-8 I'm assuming ensemble support, we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 #startthethread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 3m3 minutes ago More Looks like 4 or 5 of the 20 GEFS members support something Canadian develops wave further north So something 2 watch, but right now low odds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 29 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: One of these days, euro is gonna score a coup Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Actually the Ukie is pretty similar at day 6 with a 1004 low in SE Wyoming. So I'll watch for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 The gfs shows one of the ways we can score without blocking. A wave trailing behind a cutter will work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Just now, franklin NCwx said: The gfs shows one of the ways we can score without blocking. A wave trailing behind a cutter will work. The thing that concerns me is, the cold shot is not that cold! Maybe if it comes in at night, etc, etc,etc, we might be good 1-40 North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: The thing that concerns me is, the cold shot is not that cold! Maybe if it comes in at night, etc, etc,etc, we might be good 1-40 North It's cold enough. The surface would be cooler than it's showing here. It would likely trend colder. The setup is good. We just need to see the same setup in place at go time and temps will be fine. Problem is, the whole thing will probably shift a good couple hundred miles N, if there be a storm at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Ensembles still show a decent pattern mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: It's cold enough. The surface would be cooler than it's showing here. It would likely trend colder. The setup is good. We just need to see the same setup in place at go time and temps will be fine. Problem is, the whole thing will probably shift a good couple hundred miles N, if there be a storm at all. It all depends on the midweek cutter and the strength and separation of the trailing wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: The gfs shows one of the ways we can score without blocking. A wave trailing behind a cutter will work. Agree this is actually pretty classic setup for us in the eastern part of the state.....storm track is ok, high stays anchored long enough over SE Canada, would like to see it a bit stronger or a tad further south but mid 1030's is decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 1 minute ago, franklin NCwx said: It all depends on the midweek cutter and the strength and separation of the trailing wave. You're correct. I'm just saying that if we get what we need with that, surface temps will be fine. I'm much more worried about the storm being not there or farther north than I am about temps with the setup the GFS showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: It's cold enough. The surface would be cooler than it's showing here. It would likely trend colder. The setup is good. We just need to see the same setup in place at go time and temps will be fine. Problem is, the whole thing will probably shift a good couple hundred miles N, if there be a storm at all. Let me tell you a story about the NAM and a January system! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KENW0728 Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 On 1/26/2017 at 10:45 AM, Cold Rain said: On 1/27/2017 at 5:48 PM, Mrwolf1972 said: 6 years ago I had trouble getting out of the side door of my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 BTW - The 00z Euro had the 2/10 storm, it was just out to sea. Check 12z 2/10 frame MSLP for those with access. The Euro also has the same tail end of energy swinging down as the GFS does, so it's not like the Euro isn't showing a storm at all...it's there, just hasn't popped anything significant yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Any snow on the Euro for tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 According to my local forecast, it's suppose to be 65-75 starting Monday next week!!? Ground temps gonna be a bit?ch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: According to my local forecast, it's suppose to be 65-75 starting Monday next week!!? Ground temps gonna be a bit?ch! Nope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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