Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017

[franklin NCwx]

21 minutes ago, griteater said:

Yep, if I see another person state that a little southeast ridging is good...

That's a great image there Pack.  The sharp configuration over Greenland and south into the Canadian Maritimes on the Euro is obviously much preferred

Lol... other than N new England who thinks a se ridge is a good thing? 

[JoshM]

Canadian is cold chasing moisture if anyone was curious. Cold hammer drops after that.

[jaredcohen]

00z euro also warmer - showing a lot more mixing for NC. Moves big snow totals north to around Richmond area. Snow accumulation line at about I40 from AVL to RDU and US64 to the coast with areas north getting a few inches (and a lot of mixing - looks like precip ends as rain). Lots of QPF, just the cold doesn't hold. 

 

 

 

 

[TiltedStorm]

The best case you can ask for is a storm signal at this point. Still plenty of time a lot can change with where and what type.


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[RiftMania]

For sure something to watch. As stated above get that baby into the 72hr mark and call it a lock.

[Jon]

Getting SER'd.  GFS v/s Euro

GFS slightly weaker EPO and NAO.

And it's gone on the 06z, imagine that.


This run produces snow just inland for SC and NC. The GFS is truly garbage.


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[packbacker]

2 minutes ago, Jon said:

And it's gone on the 06z, imagine that.


This run produces snow just inland for SC and NC. The GFS is truly garbage.


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Yep...One of the better GEFS runs though...past 48 hr trend has been for better blocking (NAO and 50/50.  With suppressed storm track. 

[Jon]

We better hope this pans out, not a good look from the CFS this morning. Yikes. Two runs left.




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[FlatLander48]

6 minutes ago, Jon said:

We better hope this pans out, not a good look from the CFS this morning. Yikes. Two runs left.




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If we get one to two periods of warmth like what we are supposed to get early next week, we could have really cold air a couple of times and still end up warm for the month. And I don't think receiving true sustained cold is anywhere near a possibility at this point. It's always easier to receive record highs than record lows in this part of the country.

 

[Jon]

If we get one to two periods of warmth like what we are supposed to get early next week, we could have really cold air a couple of times and still end up warm for the month. And I don't think receiving true sustained cold is anywhere near a possibility at this point. It's always easier to receive record highs than record lows in this part of the country.

 

Yeah but the CFS backed off of the cold as well, so that just means less cold shots. May be a repeat of December.


+2F AN isn't that bad for Jan but I'd like to be normal. I'm more concerned about the cold backing off than the +2 AN temps.


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[BristowWx]

Stepping through the GEFS temps the lower SE never really gets that cold...the upper SE however from RAH and north do not look AN at all.  It really depends on this block and how long it can hold.  that is the wild card.  so I am not sure how valid the CFSv will prove to be in the end.  but it may be seeing second half of month and major warm up.  seeing the models turn around so quickly after it looked really bad before Xmas should give everyone pause for LR forecasts. 

[FlatLander48]

5 minutes ago, Jon said:

Yeah but the CFS backed off of the cold as well, so that just means less cold shots. May be a repeat of December.


+2F AN isn't that bad for Jan but I'd like to be normal. I'm more concerned about the cold backing off than the +2 AN temps.


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Not one of these have us below average for January. Not a single one. And like Bristow said, the way it looked before Christmas was world's different from what it looks like now. We are a lot closer to a winter pattern, and the last 3 runs of the CFS are the only ones that really show the deep cold in the country. It might not look as pretty as yesterday, but considering what it looked like a few days ago, I don't think there is any cause for concern...yet.

[FallsLake]

The last few CFS runs scream potential CAD setups. Sure the overall pattern may be warm but that's some really cold air to the NW. Plus we're getting into prime winter season where the highs coming down from the north are stronger and can push (at least temporarily) into CAD setups. (so)I would like to see a colder look but lets see what happens... 

[bhamwx205]

why does anyone care what the CFS is doing for January m we have a legit threat next week.



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[BIG FROSTY]

Just talked with JB, He said he's in disagreement with models! He thinks Mid/late winter +PNA,  -AO and -NAO  should rule roost..... He on board for trough digging big time in the east in our storm time frame.....  For me not to worry my BIG FROSTY self over the models...............  Coast to Coast COLD Should be lots of opportunities for winter storms, especially for that COLD RAIN Guy!! 

[SnowNiner]

28 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

Not one of these have us below average for January. Not a single one. And like Bristow said, the way it looked before Christmas was world's different from what it looks like now. We are a lot closer to a winter pattern, and the last 3 runs of the CFS are the only ones that really show the deep cold in the country. It might not look as pretty as yesterday, but considering what it looked like a few days ago, I don't think there is any cause for concern...yet.

I'm ok with what the CFS shows.  To me it's showing the SER effect.  We already know we have that to deal with.  The question is will be have the -NAO like the next week to keep it at bay every so often.  It's all about the -NAO I think this year.  We have it, we get cold and a chance for storms.  We don't, the SER pokes up and mutes the -EPO for us and we are warm. We're probably not going to get the PNA, so -NAO or bust.   CFS isn't telling us anything we don't already know IMO. 

[Prestige Worldwide]

7 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

Just talked with JB, He said he's in disagreement with models! He thinks Mid/late winter +PNA,  -AO and -NAO  should rule roost..... He on board for trough digging big time in the east in our storm time frame.....  For me not to worry my BIG FROSTY self over the models...............  Coast to Coast COLD Should be lots of opportunities for winter storms, especially for that COLD RAIN Guy!! 

Big frosty- you and JB are boys?  That's pretty cool. I love the sound of coast to coast cold 

[BIG FROSTY]

Just now, debeaches said:

Big frosty- you and JB are boys?  That's pretty cool. I love the sound of coast to coast cold 

No, I kid on that part because people give me a hard time when I post his thoughts a lot of times..... But He did say what I wrote this morning!!!  He likes a big storm coming out of the south late next week......

[Jon]

why does anyone care what the CFS is doing for January m we have a legit threat next week.



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Because it usually nails the anomalies at the end of the month prior, and some people have interests in overall patterns for winter and not a storm 10 days out. No worries - Plenty of time to talk about Jan 7 with posters posting on every model run for the next 10 days


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[FlatLander48]

9 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

I'm ok with what the CFS shows.  To me it's showing the SER effect.  We already know we have that to deal with.  The question is will be have the -NAO like the next week to keep it at bay every so often.  It's all about the -NAO I think this year.  We have it, we get cold and a chance for storms.  We don't, the SER pokes up and mutes the -EPO for us and we are warm. We're probably not going to get the PNA, so -NAO or bust.   CFS isn't telling us anything we don't already know IMO. 

Yea, the CFS really doesn't bother me either. We know that we'll have a cold shot or two and there will be warmth as well. Just kind of in a wait and see mode as to how much and how long the cold will be around as compared to the warmth. And as you mentioned, that SER is always the thorn in our side. But I honestly wouldn't expect much more out of the CFS. If it showed the average Temps BN for January after the past year and all the warmth, I wouldn't believe it anyway. 

[mackerel_sky]

E3 please!

[NCSNOW]

The pattern can do what it wants mid Jan on. My focus is on late next week. Great opportunity and we score one I'll consider the winter a win because coming in I was expecting worse than what we've already got to be truthfull.

Anyway the euro last night painted a Miller B with next weekends storm. Amazing agreement among models and ensembles so the threat is legit and then some. But a miller B is one option.The EPS and control show miller A scenerio and let's pray that's how this plays out with southern slider/overuning event. Long way to go before details get ironed out. Step 1 is we should be seeing and know for sure the H5 pattern for next week is legit by Sunday night into Monday as we will be seeing it start to unfold in its beginning stages. Step 2 will still be about 72 to 90 hours away Sunday night into Monday and we should be able to start discerning if we are gonna be dealing with a slider/overruning hybrid miller A or get a Miller B and get pinged to death while the MA gets the white powder. 

[mackerel_sky]

The 6z GFS didn't look horrible!? Looks like 3 waves in our" timeframe" could be a little colder, but far from a dumpster fire

[SnowNiner]

3 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

The pattern can do what it wants mid Jan on. My focus is on late next week. Great opportunity and we score one I'll consider the winter a win because coming in I was expecting worse than what we've already got to be truthfull.

Anyway the euro last night painted a Miller B with next weekends storm. Amazing agreement among models and ensembles so the threat is legit and then some. But a miller B is one option.The EPS and control show miller A scenerio and let's pray that's how this plays out with southern slider/overuning event. Long way to go before details get ironed out. Step 1 is we should be seeing and know for sure the H5 pattern for next week is legit by Sunday night into Monday as we will be seeing it start to unfold in its beginning stages. Step 2 will still be about 72 to 90 hours away Sunday night into Monday and we should be able to start discerning if we are gonna be dealing with a slider/overruning hybrid miller A or get a Miller B and get pinged to death while the MA gets the white powder. 

Seems like we've been stuck with those for the last several years.  Can't remember a pure snow event in CLT the last several years.  All Miller B hybrids with sleet the predominately P-type.  I'll take it but yeah, with nice blocking you'd hope we'd score the Miller A.  

[packbacker]

36 minutes ago, Jon said:

Because it usually nails the anomalies at the end of the month prior, and some people have interests in overall patterns for winter and not a storm 10 days out. No worries - Plenty of time to talk about Jan 7 with posters posting on every model run for the next 10 days


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Hoping the CFS like the GEFS is overplaying that Atlantic/SER.  Below is latest 6-10 v/s what it had for the 11-15.   Wish I had saved a EPS from a week ago to compare.  

[NCSNOW]

4 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

Seems like we've been stuck with those for the last several years.  Can't remember a pure snow event in CLT the last several years.  All Miller B hybrids with sleet the predominately P-type.  I'll take it but yeah, with nice blocking you'd hope we'd score the Miller A.  

Yeah I'm with you as well as several others on here I'm sure. It's just one of the options and thankfully it was on its own without any ens support.

Biggest news is this threat has legs. So instead of worrying about how it crosses the finish line in 8 to 10 days, I'm more interested in getting it to the starting line in 4 days. Then we can start the whaling and nashing of teeth on just how the race will be run. It is nice to have something to track besides a pattern change I can tell you that.

[SnowNiner]

4 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Hoping the CFS like the GEFS is overplaying that Atlantic/SER.  Below is latest 6-10 v/s what it had for the 11-15.   Wish I had saved a EPS from a week ago to compare.  

 

 

May be. Nice trend in less ridging in the Atlantic and more Greenland blocking.  Perhaps that could be the coup of the month? 

Is this the year we have an -NAO through the winter and NOT the summer?  

[griteater]

10 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

Seems like we've been stuck with those for the last several years.  Can't remember a pure snow event in CLT the last several years.  All Miller B hybrids with sleet the predominately P-type.  I'll take it but yeah, with nice blocking you'd hope we'd score the Miller A.  

Yeah it's rare that we aren't scratching and clawing to fight off the mid level warm advection.  The last no brainer all snow event we've had was the big SC snow 2/12/10, which was on the light side up here.

[griteater]

2 hours ago, packbacker said:

Yep...One of the better GEFS runs though...past 48 hr trend has been for better blocking (NAO and 50/50.  With suppressed storm track. 

Maybe it's personal bias and long way to go, but I can't shake the idea that this is going to be a climber and a moderate hit for central VA into the mid-atlantic (Bob Chill country).  The ENE overrunning setup looks good overall, but I don't trust that the temps are going to hold for a big hit in our forum.  The transient Greenland ridge and configuration over the NE needs to overperform.  

[TiltedStorm]

When do you guys start a thread for this threat?


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