packbacker Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Well I guess the EPS was just a tad AN, sounds like the CFS. If by Feb 10th we are still looking at conus torch on models then I will be be done...#RIPWinter2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Until the pattern turns interesting, I'm going to start tracking 10 day wind until further notice. This looks pretty windy near the Mason Dixon line, if you're 34K feet tall: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 These trailing sw's need to do some damage, fairly good agreement on a lot of cold air being around for a couple of days. You would think there would be some members showing snow across the east with these. Question is...are we lucky.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 24 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Until the pattern turns interesting, I'm going to start tracking 10 day wind until further notice. This looks pretty windy near the Mason Dixon line, if you're 34K feet tall: DC is in the bulls eye again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, FallsLake said: DC is in the bulls eye again... Lol always! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 36 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Until the pattern turns interesting, I'm going to start tracking 10 day wind until further notice. This looks pretty windy near the Mason Dixon line, if you're 34K feet tall: All good wind events start with Taco Bell! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: All good wind events start with Taco Bell! Combo Number 1, please. 18z GFS has quite a bit less snow over NC than the 12z did, and the 12z didn't have very much. What a shock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Combo Number 1, please. 18z GFS has quite a bit less snow over NC than the 12z did, and the 12z didn't have very much. What a shock. Dang, not even a Roxboro special for Friday?? Shocking! But the Super Bowl storm is going to be JB! ($) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Combo Number 1, please. 18z GFS has quite a bit less snow over NC than the 12z did, and the 12z didn't have very much. What a shock. You get some sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 18Z GFS, another run another look at 500mb - feature over Washington State not as strong with energy, dissipates - allows ridge to bild faster on west coast, could be kinda interesting for the 6th.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, FallsLake said: You get some sleet. Awesome. JONATHAN stop wishcasting.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 6 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Awesome. JONATHAN stop wishcasting.... Lol! True story! Next thing you hear, the 9th storm has an 800 mile south shift and buries the Carolinas!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Gfs is a lot colder for Sunday and dry as a bone now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 CR, how can you not like Friday for your area!!?? Flurries or pellets would be awesome after this fail boat of a winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: CR, how can you not like Friday for your area!!?? Flurries or pellets would be awesome after this fail boat of a winter! Ha! Cause it won't be either. If we get anything, it'll be light sprinkles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 50 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Awesome. JONATHAN stop wishcasting.... 42 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Lol! True story! Next thing you hear, the 9th storm has an 800 mile south shift and buries the Carolinas!? Energy was weaaaaaak....you an see it off the coast, if any of that phases, it would be something...but for now, nada! Energy much more south that run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 15 minutes ago, Jon said: Energy was weaaaaaak....you an see it off the coast, if any of that phases, it would be something...but for now, nada! Energy much more south that run though. The end of the run really starts to look interesting, pattern-wise. If we start seeing consistent moves toward that look, I'm going to have to stop posting wind maps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 1 hour ago, Jon said: 18Z GFS, another run another look at 500mb - feature over Washington State not as strong with energy, dissipates - allows ridge to bild faster on west coast, could be kinda interesting for the 6th.. You're getting real close to winning a minor award. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 41 minutes ago, jburns said: You're getting real close to winning a minor award. I'll take what I can get Mr. Burns! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 We need to slosh the cold back over here...put that on the to do list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 18 minutes ago, packbacker said: We need to slosh the cold back over here...put that on the to do list. You clearly missed the Grumpy Cat analysis! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 1 hour ago, Jon said: I'll take what I can get Mr. Burns! Ok Congrats. Since it is a minor award it only lasts 24 hours. Uh oh. there seems to be a problem with the award icon. I'll look into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Is good to see the models wanting to somewhat follow MJO composites....ph7 should be ending right around then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, packbacker said: Is good to see the models wanting to somewhat follow MJO composites....ph7 should be ending right around then. ... and then ph 8? Different look? Answer - Maybe .... bottom line - ph 8 - does not look like it will change that +EPO. Can it overcome the influence? Answer - Maybe ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 22 minutes ago, pcbjr said: ... and then ph 8? Different look? Answer - Maybe .... bottom line - ph 8 - does not look like it will change that +EPO. Can it overcome the influence? Answer - Maybe ... We hope :-) Looked to see if any crappy Nina winters had a moderate amp ph8...both 1999 and 2012 did. During 2012 RDU had its only snow during that period. 1999 is interesting as it was a blowtorch in phases 6-7 but darn cold in phase 8. I should send this to JB to help him out. Of course 78 and 10 analogs were Feb phase 8 periods and were super cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, packbacker said: We hope :-) Looked to see if any crappy Nina winters had a moderate amp ph8...both 1999 and 2012 did. During 2012 RDU had its only snow during that period. 1999 is interesting as it was a blowtorch in phases 6-7 but darn cold in phase 8. I should send this to JB to help him out. Of course 78 and 10 analogs were Feb phase 8 periods and were super cold. I'm totally with you. I just get concerned about what that EPO is gonna do to a ph8 trip - one or the other has got to dominate ... I just am not coming up with anything that gives good guidance. So I wonder .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 9 minutes ago, pcbjr said: I'm totally with you. I just get concerned about what that EPO is gonna do to a ph8 trip - one or the other has got to dominate ... I just am not coming up with anything that gives good guidance. So I wonder .... With ph8 a PAC low of some sort is favored so it could be -EPO prohibitive, but just depends if the PAC ridge can shove the low far enough west. But, other forms of blocking could deliver cold so a NAO/AO could build into the EPO domain too, but now I am really wishcasting. Neutral EPO might be OK too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: Neutral EPO might be OK too. Agree totally - but on the quoted part, something would have to happen I'm not seeing at least until after the 15th. Tell me I need new glasses or something ...LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 1 minute ago, pcbjr said: Agree totally - but on the quoted part, something would have to happen I'm not seeing at least until after the 15th. Tell me I need new glasses or something ...LOL Yep, a couple of more weeks is most likely needed. But days 8-12 look solidly BN, hopefully days 16-25 will also be solidly BN. After that it's March and for my area the average high is 60F so hopefully we torch some again :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 BTW pack, I'm working on a project deadline and am just glancing at weather when I break for a sip of coffee - like now. No time to do this myself, now, but for anyone reading this exchange who might not be up to speed - and for educational purposes, do you have a readily available map or two you might post to demonstrate the difference between a +EPO (bad) and a -EPO (good). Phil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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