FallsLake Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: In the So What Have We Learned Here? thread, we learned to go with the warmest model. Maybe the NAM will cool down. Lol. Yep, need the NAM on board. I think it was the best model for the last event (within two days). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Wonder when the last time we had a Feb with this deep a ph8 MJO. GEFS seems to be leading this and Euro is following. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 This strat event will be propagated down to the trop. Couple that with the MJO, strong ph8...come on, something has to give mid Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, packbacker said: This strat event will be propagated down to the trop. Couple that with the MJO, strong ph8...come on, something has to give mid Feb. Can we possibly combine this with a -EPO and a +PNA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Just now, Cold Rain said: Can we possibly combine this with a -EPO and a +PNA? Doubtful, seems analogs for nina/nada both show +EPO but with some ridging/blocking and trough in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 7 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Can we possibly combine this with a -EPO and a +PNA? Allan's site doesn't breakout nina only but he does have amplitude >1 composites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 12 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Can we possibly combine this with a -EPO and a +PNA? It will, record heat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 The deep cold on the GFS has been trending less deep lately...that would suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, packbacker said: The deep cold on the GFS has been trending less deep lately...that would suck. Doing that all winter, should have expected it! Bet the streak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: Doing that all winter, should have expected it! Bet the streak It's still darn cold, but the trough isn't digging as far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: It's still darn cold, but the trough isn't digging as far south. Thanks for the info above. Hard for troughs to dig deep without a very steep +PNA or a well-placed -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 45 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Lol. Yep, need the NAM on board. I think it was the best model for the last event (within two days). That's right. Folks can make jokes about the NAM all they want to but it can sniff out a warm nose a mile away. That and the RGEM are usually very good at close range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Hopefully this pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 1 minute ago, franklin NCwx said: Hopefully this pans out. Lol @ that western ridge! Like that'll happen! Fun to look at! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Yeah, Franklin...just came in here to post this. It's in ridiculous land, but the trend toward the end of the run is good: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 12Z CMC very close to a decent event for I-40 north on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 1 hour ago, Cold Rain said: Yeah, Franklin...just came in here to post this. It's in ridiculous land, but the trend toward the end of the run is good: Something is gonna give...PNA stout too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Fairly stout block on GEFS. Would be great if it completely split the trop PV, it was getting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Big dog incoming this month!!! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Euro almost ready to split the trop PV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 So a fairly encouraging run of the GEFS out in la la land, compared to the 6z that I posted earlier. The 12z run features some nice improvements. What we have here is the Cockeyed Grumpy Cat pattern. A typical Grumpy Cat pattern features a strong GOA low, lower heights throughout the NAO region, and broad ridging across the central US, giving rise to its onomatopoeic name. HOWEVER, the cockeyed variant clearly shows a few favorably located features, outlined in red: First, we have a strong signal for an Aleutian low. This feature is good for pumping up heights in the PNA and potentially NAO spaces. The resulting downstream reflection is a trough in the east and an environment favorable for PV construction in eastern/SE Canada. You also will notice some ridging working into Greenland. The typical evolution of such a pattern is either: A) The eventual decay of the western ridge, compliments of a strong and progressive Pacific jet, or B ): A stationary element to the Aleutian low, allowing continued PV development in Eastern Canada with a potential ridge-bridge over the Pole, initiating a -AO/-NAO regime. Given the SSTs in the Northern Pacific, the strong Pac jet to date, and the general inability of the Aleutian low to persist so far this winter, I'd favor scenario A. But we certainly can't rule out scenario B. Even if we get scenario A, we still may have an opportunity or two for a winter storm, if this pattern comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 5 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: Big dog incoming this month!!! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk JB said today the NE will be cold later, as opposed to the whole east last week! What a hack! Final grasp for last minute subscriptions! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 JB said today the NE will be cold later, as opposed to the whole east last week! What a hack! Final grasp for last minute subscriptions! I hope he get's them! If he depends on me he'll go broke. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: JB said today the NE will be cold later, as opposed to the whole east last week! What a hack! Final grasp for last minute subscriptions! Just now, BIG FROSTY said: I hope you get them! If he depends on me he'll go broke. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Wait....so he hasn't thrown in the towel but he is backing off the "cold east" to cold in the NE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Wait....so he hasn't thrown in the towel but he is backing off the "cold east" to cold in the NE?Mack said that not me I didn't hear him say that!!!Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 8 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: Big dog incoming this month!!! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk JB said today the NE will be cold later, as opposed to the whole east last week! What a hack! Final grasp for last minute subscriptions! Yeah, it's on his Facebook today! Delayed but not denied, in the moneymaker! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 JB said today the NE will be cold later, as opposed to the whole east last week! What a hack! Final grasp for last minute subscriptions! Yeah, it's on his Facebook today! Delayed but not denied, in the moneymaker!Lol. Seems like I've heard that saying before? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 LOL @ Judah Cohen's post!!?? Him and JB partners in weather! Still saying east will get progressively colder in coming weeks!? Must be looking at pioneer model!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Our Friday (non)event: With respect to precip type: With the parent surface high still over the North Plains, far removed from the area, low-level thermal profile is only marginally cold enough to support any freezing rain across the northern piedmont/coastal plain with lows Thursday night/Friday morning expected to fall into the lower/mid 30s north. And without more than a few hundredths of liquid precip across the far north, there is not enough evap cooling potential to keep temperatures at or below freezing. Additionally withmoisture/saturation only extending -6C, the chance of any ice nuclei in the clouds to support snow is almost non-existent as well. Thus, will continue to keep the forecast in the form of plain rain, albeit a cold rain with temperatures remaining in the upper 30s to lower 40s throughout the day on Friday. Our Sunday (probably non)event: Modified Canadian/Arctic air mass will initially reside over centralNC Saturday. This cool dry air mass will result in sunny skies and afternoon temperatures a bout a category below normal. A fast moving upper disturbance will follow quickly on the heels of this rapidly modifying air mass on Sunday. Current model guidance depicts modest saturation in the lower half of the atmosphere by 12Z Sunday, but little moisture present in the favored dendrite formation region (colder than minus 10 deg C). Also, model soundings depict a fairly dry sub cloud layer, leading to evaporative cooling. If (and this is a big if) light precipitation starts early enough early Sunday, precip would initially begin as light freezing rain, then transition to rain. Due to isolated nature of the spotty light freezing rain,this has a high probability of being a non-event, if it occurs at all. Overcast skies and spotty light precip Sunday morning-early afternoon may initiate a brief in-situ damming event, primarily focused across the northern Piedmont. Model temperature guidance still looks too warm, so will continue the trend of advertising high temps cooler than statistical guidance. What's next..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 19 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: LOL @ Judah Cohen's post!!?? Him and JB partners in weather! Still saying east will get progressively colder in coming weeks!? Must be looking at pioneer model!? Mack your going to stroke out over JB if your not careful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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