Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

Recommended Posts

3 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Looking at how the GFS/GFS-Para/Euro has done the past 10 days or so.  Below is a 48 hour model prog (top left), so should be fairly close to reality, and then top right is GFS, bottom left is Euro and bottom right is Para, all from Dec 21st for the same date to compare.  The Op GFS isn't even close, the Para/Euro are fairly good.  In fact, the Op Euro picked up on the blocking (NAO) a little better then it's own ensemble at this range.   The para picked up on the NAO too.  The Op GFS started getting a clue inside day 7 and was reasonable at day 5.

Screen Shot 2016-12-28 at 9.31.55 PM.png

This is awesome.  Thanks for this.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 10.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
16 minutes ago, Justanobody said:

Most mets in the SE are conservative..

Of course, most mets in the SE are conservative...it's not like we get snow down here too often. No one wants to be bullish and then bust heavily when a snowstorm doesn't happen. Better to be bearish than bullish in the South especially 9-10 days out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Looking at how the GFS/GFS-Para/Euro has done the past 10 days or so.  Below is a 48 hour model prog (top left), so should be fairly close to reality, and then top right is GFS, bottom left is Euro and bottom right is Para, all from Dec 21st for the same date to compare.  The Op GFS isn't even close, the Para/Euro are fairly good.  In fact, the Op Euro picked up on the blocking (NAO) a little better then it's own ensemble at this range.   The para picked up on the NAO too.  The Op GFS started getting a clue inside day 7 and was reasonable at day 5.

Edit:  The GEPS was awful, not even close at day 9, didn't even bother looking much into it.  The GEFS/EPS were both reasonable at day 9.

 

Wow, I'm pretty impressed by the GFS-Para. I heard it was doing better than the OP at H5, but that's a much larger difference than I expected. This is an incredibly limited data set, but this certainly lends to the Para being a step in the right direction for the GFS. If these sorts of verifications continue, perhaps we should just drop the OP altogether for the rest of the winter :lol:.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, RubiksDestroyer said:

Wow, I'm pretty impressed by the GFS-Para. I heard it was doing better than the OP at H5, but that's a much larger difference than I expected. This is an incredibly limited data set, but this certainly lends to the Para being a step in the right direction for the GFS. If these sorts of verifications continue, perhaps we should just drop the OP altogether for the rest of the winter :lol:.

Was a little surprised, but I picked one storm that's going to affect the NE tomorrow and Friday to verify this.  Not exactly a huge sample size.  But, still nice to see Euro do so well (knock on wood).  The Para wasn't that great at the surface though, the Euro was fairly solid even at days 7-9.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Was a little surprised, but I picked one storm that's going to affect the NE tomorrow and Friday to verify this.  Not exactly a huge sample size.  But, still nice to see Euro do so well (knock on wood).  The Para wasn't that great at the surface though, the Euro was fairly solid even at days 7-9.

That's not too surprising. It at least seems to be doing well at H5 though, which is more important IMO (if the model isn't in the ballpark at 500 mb, how can it possibly be right at the surface?).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, griteater said:

It's a beautiful southern slider, prolonged overrunning setup on the GFS, but it's lacking that initial cold punch out ahead of the storm....it ends up quite wintry for northern NC into VA on Jan 7

Getting SER'd.  GFS v/s Euro

GFS slightly weaker EPO and NAO.

Screen Shot 2016-12-28 at 11.39.35 PM.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, griteater said:

Yep, if I see another person state that a little southeast ridging is good...:lmao:

That's a great image there Pack.  The sharp configuration over Greenland and south into the Canadian Maritimes on the Euro is obviously much preferred

LOL...SER's are great for the Oh-V, not us.

I know, we need a 50/50 and not have the EPO peel back NW....so essentially everything mostly perfect.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The sweet spot on clowns in NC continues to be o a line from Murphy to Elizabeth City. That has been consistent on both ops since 12z. Big difference is the gfs has come in line with the euro and amplified the first wave and not delayed or waited 24 to 36 hrs latter. And as pack pointed out it has way more ser fighting back against the artic push. The cold wins out but it's slower arrival along with quicker precip onset cause more liquid/mixing. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...