packbacker Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 15 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: 2020? Well let's assume we don't snow the rest of this winter, that will make 4 out of the past 6 winters as duds. RDU been batting .500 for snowy vs non-snowy past 20 years. We stay on that average we should snow next 3 out of 4 years. I guess our avg could drop though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Good grief...just saw the GEPS in the extended. Looks very CFS'ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 So our only hope now is the super bowl storm, like on the 12z GFS?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 43 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: ATL has had 1 good winter out of the last 6 winters. 2014-15 probably was my least favorite winter ever. I'm 40 miles north of the city and I've had decent snow for the past few years. Last year was the least snow with only 2" but from 2014 on have been decent. I-20 is the screw zone line so using ATL as a barometer for good winters is not a good measure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 1 minute ago, EmersonGA said: I'm 40 miles north of the city and I've had decent snow for the past few years. Last year was the least snow with only 2" but from 2014 on have been decent. I-20 is the screw zone line so using ATL as a barometer for good winters is not a good measure. I'm just comparing Atlanta to other cities along I-20 like Dallas. Dallas has had way more snow than Atlanta this decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: I'm just comparing Atlanta to other cities along I-20 like Dallas. Dallas has had way more snow than Atlanta this decade. Just because Dallas is located on I-20 doesn't mean that it's an apples to apples comparison. Weather and storm tracks in the southern plains are totally different and bear no comparison to what happens here in the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 24 minutes ago, audioguy3107 said: Just because Dallas is located on I-20 doesn't mean that it's an apples to apples comparison. Weather and storm tracks in the southern plains are totally different and bear no comparison to what happens here in the southeast. Don't feed the trolls! It's the same crap all the time with him! Stuff like " it's 64 at my house, my local forecast was 61, what a bust" crap like that dribble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Guess by looking at the day 7-9 temps the superbowl sunday storm is a no go on the EPS....day 10 has deep trough in east, maybe the 11-15 builds on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Jb comment on the Euro- For you MackMan!!! Though better than it was on the day 6 storm it looks like it has an error in dragging the southern part of the energy. You can see the front part out in front of the back part. Line that up and it will catch up to the GFS. Still its better than it was, but goes off the rails imo after that, as it has been its habit in almost every run day 6 and beyond for a week.... Anyone notice how on every run, the positive EPO keeps getting delayed another day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Unrelated question, why do Joe Bastardi's forecasts get discussed so much around here (I'm guessing "JB" = Joe, right?)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 He's pretty good LR forecaster. Has a winter bias especially for the NE. Tends to go out on a limb. Pretty good at pattern recognition, not so good at the details sometimes. Still i am a fan of JB. Many on this board are not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, CentralNC said: He's pretty good LR forecaster. Has a winter bias especially for the NE. Tends to go out on a limb. Pretty good at pattern recognition, not so good at the details sometimes. Still i am a fan of JB. Many on this board are not. Yeah, It's no secret I'm a JB fan also. That's why I like to post his thoughts! Because most all on here hate him for some reason? lol And he's a good one to bash when winter is over before Fab Feb!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 I know it's the NAM, but the 18z at hour 84 has a much more pronounced push of cold dry air. If correct it could have affects on the light system Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Just now, CentralNC said: He's pretty good LR forecaster. Has a winter bias especially for the NE. Tends to go out on a limb. Pretty good at pattern recognition, not so good at the details sometimes. Still i am a fan of JB. Many on this board are not. BF, get on the phone and tell JB he's crazy!! Going with the GFS over Euro!!?? What's the Pioneer model showing? I'll take my chances on the Super Bowl storm for us, it's close and our only chance in my opinion! The models underestimate the CAD 95% of the time, and 4,5,6 degrees colder and we will be in business!! Give me a light wintry event any day , over a triple-phase rainer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: BF, get on the phone and tell JB he's crazy!! Going with the GFS over Euro!!?? What's the Pioneer model showing? I'll take my chances on the Super Bowl storm for us, it's close and our only chance in my opinion! The models underestimate the CAD 95% of the time, and 4,5,6 degrees colder and we will be in business!! Give me a light wintry event any day , over a triple-phase rainer! Line busy, He telling them what to put into the 18z Goofy!! I'll try later. I agree 100% our only chance it appears now is Sunday!! #unreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: Yeah, It's no secret I'm a JB fan also. That's why I like to post his thoughts! Because most all on here hate him for some reason? lol And he's a good one to bash when winter is over before Fab Feb!! I reall don't hate him! Really, I just wish he would get more stuff right! He really does flail around a lot and throw out a lot of mumbo jumbo, and is very NE centric! If it doesn't happen below NY or PA, it doesn't even count as weather! He is very cold biased and I have never, ever, heard him forecast a warm winter in his winter outlook! He's like the Jim Cramer of weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: I reall don't hate him! Really, I just wish he would get more stuff right! He really does flail around a lot and throw out a lot of mumbo jumbo, and is very NE centric! If it doesn't happen below NY or PA, it doesn't even count as weather! He is very cold biased and I have never, ever, heard him forecast a warm winter in his winter outlook! He's like the Jim Cramer of weather! I know, I'm jus messing with ya! looks like we may have to go further than NY to see anymore snow? 18z GFS will be a Hugh hit watch and see............. lol The CMC is the one that worries me, being so warm? NOT GOOD SIGN!!! See if 18z can give us a better look, 12z wasn't bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Saw on TWC there are like 2 prices of energy off west coast and one gets absorbed by the other and GFS is only model doing it for the weekend storm, that's why it's so different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 @96 1041 High in SD moisture creeping in? May not mean squat. Got get this timed right!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: @96 1041 High in SD moisture creeping in? May not mean squat. yeah that high is stronger compared to the 12z by about 2mb. FWIW 850s are colder across NC @ 108. If only we could slow that high down. It is just booking it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Colder look through 114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Just now, ajr said: Colder look through 114 The high is moving a bit quicker though even though it is a touch stronger.. its gotta slow down for this to work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Just now, Cary_Snow95 said: The high is moving a bit quicker though even though it is a touch stronger.. its gotta slow down for this to work Yeah, just noticed that too - can't catch a break it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 We gonna have to build a wall up north to block the high!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 H5 is different for sure. Wave doesn't seem to be digging as much. At least out to 126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 I think it's gonna be a cold rain. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Just now, BIG FROSTY said: I think it's gonna be a cold rain. lol Yep 850s get scoured out before it gets close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 That GL low looks like it absorbs the other low that was running through Ohio - I'm guessing that doesn't help us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Nice 40F rain for the Super Bowl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 It's over, our only model to hug has threw us under the bus too!!! looked like just a April cool front passage............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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