mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 It's ok, the Super bowl storm, is gonna rain, the mega-bomb on 8th is gonna be a monster rainer, it's the Valentine's Day storm, that = $$$$$! Book it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Yikes! Haven't seen much of a 180 flip in one day in the CFS. Best case is either warm or hot at this point, feb not looking good if the CFS verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 For those discouraged, the storm on the 6th won't even be properly sampled until the main piece of energy comes ashore on the 4th...until then we should have various model changes with regard to that storm. I think more are bummed about the next storm, but this one is difficult. It has two pieces of energy that phase, and they interact and phase differently almost every run. You can see the energy here...in fact, this run has 3 pieces of energy, one that comes in late and phases. Very complicated setup of this continues and we are not out of the woods by any means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Would less of a phase help us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 6 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Would less of a phase help us? The way this winter has gone I'd root for a single wave rather than a triple phaser, so yeah. Unless we get some kind of stout HP, phasing would only hurt with WAA and likely take a track a bit more NW than we'd like. Not saying a phase can't work, but we are already talking about perfect timing..I think a huge phase would benefit those north more than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 After running through the free maps of the overnight runs, boy I can't see much good. The signal for a storm in the gulf is getting better and better, but the cold air is just not there. I'm not sure why considering moderate blocking, a HB vortex and an eastern trough. Is it the Alaska low cutting of the feed from the arctic? It would seem the low is bringing in air from the north pacific as opposed to due north. Long range looks the same, an up and down from torch to cool. Just not going to get it done. Hopefully the ssw does work and mid to late February we see some good effects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 1 hour ago, Jon said: For those discouraged, the storm on the 6th won't even be properly sampled until the main piece of energy comes ashore on the 4th...until then we should have various model changes with regard to that storm. I think more are bummed about the next storm, but this one is difficult. It has two pieces of energy that phase, and they interact and phase differently almost every run. You can see the energy here...in fact, this run has 3 pieces of energy, one that comes in late and phases. Very complicated setup of this continues and we are not out of the woods by any means You're right on Jon, JB says until it gets past the Rockies there is no way of telling what it's going to do.. Models will be all over the place!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: After running through the free maps of the overnight runs, boy I can't see much good. The signal for a storm in the gulf is getting better and better, but the cold air is just not there. I'm not sure why considering moderate blocking, a HB vortex and an eastern trough. Is it the Alaska low cutting of the feed from the arctic? It would seem the low is bringing in air from the north pacific as opposed to due north. Long range looks the same, an up and down from torch to cool. Just not going to get it done. Hopefully the ssw does work and mid to late February we see some good effects. All of Canada is COLD now, I think the cold will be available with the right storm track.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 8 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: You're right on Jon, JB says until it gets past the Rockies there is no way of telling what it's going to do.. Models will be all over the place!! JB just said cold will be in plains to NE, or the snow atleast! Maybe we can pull off a miracle wedge,with all that cold in Canada! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 where is the cold when you need it, maybe the storms on the 6th and the 8th will tap in to the cold air close by. this is winter come on cold air, I hate to waste a storm out of the gulf on rain, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 8 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: JB just said cold will be in plains to NE, or the snow atleast! Maybe we can pull off a miracle wedge,with all that cold in Canada! Yeah, You right He didn't say snow in the SE or Ice... He was showing all the cold up there now. and models will be all over the place. I'm like you we will probably need a good CAD set up for any wintry weather. But he did say he's not changing his thoughts until it's past the Rockies if he needs to. He's always said he thought OV then jump to the coast!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 RAH keeping the door open (..a little) for a day 7 storm: .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 350 AM Monday...Mean troughing will generally continue across the Eastern U.S. through the medium range forecast. However, the main energy will pass to the north of central NC, yielding a general dry pattern into Saturday. Though a generally dry cold front (maybe a few sprinkles again) will sink south/southeastward through the region on Wednesday night into Thursday. This front will settle to the south of the area on Thursday. A weak wave of low pressure may develop along the front Thursday night into Friday, helping to possibly spread some light precip across southern portions of the area Friday morning/afternoon. However, confidence in the timing and precip chances remain low at this time. Thus, will keep pops in the slight chance category and across the southern half of the area. Will keep precip as rain, as it appears temps across the south should be warm enough to keep it all rain (as it appears now). Reinforcing surface high pressure will build into the area on Saturday into Saturday evening, before a more potent disturbance brings a good chance of precip to the area on Sunday as the surface high quickly departs. This system may lead to at least some in-situ damming, with possible even some frozen p-types at the onset of the event in the climatological favored regions of the piedmont/nw piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 26 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: After running through the free maps of the overnight runs, boy I can't see much good. The signal for a storm in the gulf is getting better and better, but the cold air is just not there. I'm not sure why considering moderate blocking, a HB vortex and an eastern trough. Is it the Alaska low cutting of the feed from the arctic? It would seem the low is bringing in air from the north pacific as opposed to due north. Long range looks the same, an up and down from torch to cool. Just not going to get it done. Hopefully the ssw does work and mid to late February we see some good effects. Agree 100%. Looking at 850s, Canada looks cold, but not severely so. There's just no mechanism to deliver a sustained cold air feed into the SE. At least Shetley can't complain about rain chances over the next couple of weeks. February is shaping up to be another disaster for winter weather lovers. By the end of the GEFS and GEPS runs, the coldest anomalies, which are in Canada, look to somewhat dissipate and migrate back poleward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 To my untrained eye, not much in the GEFS or EPS looks promising for us temps wise around the time the precip is in place. A lot of variability still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Indices: PNA - Looks to stay positive from now through the LR -- Great AO - Looks to go negative in the LR -- Good (if it does it) NAO - Looks to stay positive through the LR --Bad, as usual http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 2 hours ago, Jon said: Yikes! Haven't seen much of a 180 flip in one day in the CFS. Best case is either warm or hot at this point, feb not looking good if the CFS verifies. It's looking unlikely at the moment that has any chance of verifying. Unless the GFS ECMWF and the ensembles are grossly wrong the next 15 days it's going to be very hard to get those departures. Remember, normals are relatively high by the time we reach 2/15 south of 37N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Agree 100%. Looking at 850s, Canada looks cold, but not severely so. There's just no mechanism to deliver a sustained cold air feed into the SE. At least Shetley can't complain about rain chances over the next couple of weeks. February is shaping up to be another disaster for winter weather lovers. By the end of the GEFS and GEPS, the coldest anomalies, which are in Canada, look to somewhat dissipate and migrate back poleward. Yeah, with the CFS going torch for February, the strat making a quick recovery, I'm not holding out much hope that we see a back end February at this point, but who knows. I'll take my 2 inches and 3-day cold shot in January and call it a winter. When does the AMO go back into the cold phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Remember when the worry was cold and dry? As far as storm potential it's gonna be very hard to get snow without very little blocking and a turd of a ridge out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Packs gonna have a party when he sees those cfsv2 maps Jon posted! All we need to see on 12Z GFS is about a 200 mile shift south and about 10 degrees cooler for the big 2/8 event! Not too much to ask! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Always remember ninas suck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 DGEX didn't look bad...#GraspingAtStraws... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Always remember winters suck! FYP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 18 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: Yeah, with the CFS going torch for February, the strat making a quick recovery, I'm not holding out much hope that we see a back end February at this point, but who knows. I'll take my 2 inches and 3-day cold shot in January and call it a winter. When does the AMO go back into the cold phase? A couple of years? Maybe that, along with the substantial upcoming solar min will do something for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: A couple of years? Maybe that, along with the substantial upcoming solar min will do something for us. Got await the aligning of the stars with Uranus!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 22 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Packs gonna have a party when he sees those cfsv2 maps Jon posted! All we need to see on 12Z GFS is about a 200 mile shift south and about 10 degrees cooler for the big 2/8 event! Not too much to ask! I don't get any joy from Feb potentially torching. I wish it would snow too...I am surprised the front 10-15 days of Feb won't be solidly BN. It sucks. Hard to believe that we could potentially go from Jan 10th to end of Feb with the below as our coldest temps. I honestly don't know what to think about Feb, the strat argues maybe a chance of end of Feb into March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 February will be just cold enough to make is miserable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 I think for the vast majority of people on this baord, winter type precip is a very unlikely event the rest of this winter unfortunately. For those in Tn, NC (north of 40 and west of 85) and Southern Va. there is still a decent chance but everybody else looks very doubtful, I hate that but it is what it is, hopefully I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 If anything, the GFS looks identical to its last few runs so far! Super bowl event, still rain! Looks just like 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 23 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: If anything, the GFS looks identical to its last few runs so far! Super bowl event, still rain! Looks just like 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 First wave was much better. Colder, taller ridge out west. Weaker system to keep it further south. This run gets some winter weather into the mountains and northern foothills before the cold air gets scoured out. Still a chance to get a weaker southern slider with overrunning IMO. EDIT: 2m temps looks to stay below freezing for mountains and N. Foothills for the entire event. A nice winter storm for that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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