Jon Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 13 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Now for some solidarity love from the enscrambles There it is! Pretty decent signal this far out, should have some interesting individual members like the Op, in fact, I'd bet on it with this look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 4 minutes ago, Jon said: There it is! Pretty decent signal this far out, should have some interesting individual members like the Op, in fact, I'd bet on it with this look 18z gefs leaves much to desire in the individual members . it's active no doubt , but more inland runners vs anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, metwannabe said: 18z gefs leaves much to desire in the individual members . it's active no doubt , but more inland runners vs anything Eh, I'll take it at this stage...especially the mean. Hard to get all the members on the same page Day 10+. Let's see if it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 1 minute ago, Jon said: Eh, I'll take it at this stage...especially the mean. Hard to get all the members on the same page Day 10+. Let's see if it holds. Yeah i will take that all day every day at this stage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said: Yeah i will take that all day every day at this stage Maybe but sorta says NW trend at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 GEFS mean snow much improved 12z: 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: Maybe but sorta says NW trend at this range It's inevitable...let's just keep it suppressed as long as we can! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 On second glance almost speaks to a 'storm' or 'not a storm' scenario really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Probabilities to go along with Wow's post, FWIW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, Jon said: Probabilities to go along with Wow's post, FWIW... That's a solid signal this far out.. I feel like usually the probability maps are the last to start kicking in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Looks like a 10% to Tifton - shoot :~( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 1 hour ago, Jon said: Ha. Just noticed a new model package on WxBell, my mistake. Not losing hope at all, btw. Plenty of ensemble support for fireworks sometime in the 6-12ish day, then again in the 10-15 day. Enjoy the ride, CR. I'm with ya man. I haven't looked at any model outside of this thread all day. I agree with you on the time frame you're watching. I just got back from dinner and saw that there were 54 new posts. I said to my wife, there must be a 10 day snowstorm. Sure enough! I'm just glad there's a legit period to track, because Pack's torch looms.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: I'm with ya man. I haven't looked at any model outside of this thread all day. I agree with you on the time frame you're watching. I just got back from dinner and saw that there were 54 new posts. I said to my wife, there must be a 10 day snowstorm. Sure enough! I'm just glad there's a legit period to track, because Pack's torch looms.... Poor Brick! Monster snows on the horizon, and back to work tomorrow!! No model watching for you!! He said on the other thread, he's not posting much over here anymore, he's found a new home! He's moved because of two posters, one is too negative and one uses too much sarcasm!? I have no idea who he's talking about??;( , but his knowledge will be missed! I love that snow probability map, I'm at 40% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Poor Brick! Monster snows on the horizon, and back to work tomorrow!! No model watching for you!! He said on the other thread, he's not posting much over here anymore, he's found a new home! He's moved because of two posters, one is too negative and one uses too much sarcasm!? I have no idea who he's talking about??;( , but his knowledge will be missed! I love that snow probability map, I'm at 40% I think the same posters he's trying to get away from post over there too. Ten day snow is serious bidness! I like those probability maps too. There were a few nice ensemble members in there as well. I remember once when 100% of the ensemble members gave me 6+" of snow, while it was raining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Gefs esembles anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 7 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Poor Brick! Monster snows on the horizon, and back to work tomorrow!! No model watching for you!! He said on the other thread, he's not posting much over here anymore, he's found a new home! He's moved because of two posters, one is too negative and one uses too much sarcasm!? I have no idea who he's talking about??;( , but his knowledge will be missed! I love that snow probability map, I'm at 40% It's no more than reading 2 newspapers, I suppose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Someone already said it but I'll say it too. This snow map has the same look as the GFS a week or so before our Jan 7th/8th storm. North of 85: You're Golden. South of 85: Enjoy the drought relief! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Navgem still in for storm #1 and looks to have storm #2. One of these will hit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 50 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said: Yeah i will take that all day every day at this stage E11 please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Someone already said it but I'll say it too. This snow map has the same look as the GFS a week or so before our Jan 7th/8th storm. North of 85: You're Golden. South of 85: Enjoy the drought relief! There's definitely not as much coverage on the South end as the last storm!! ATL was looking good at this timeframe with the Jan storm! That's a very scary feeling with the inevitable NW trend! I will expect sleet and rain, so I can only be disappointed by rain! Snow is off the table! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 1 hour ago, Wow said: This reminds me of how the early Jan storm was looking at this range and how we hoped it would have turned out with the HP really building ahead of it , then allow for the southern wave to develop a gulf low. 18z has it go neutral over the TN valley which really pumps up the precip. It also iniitally looked like a 2 part event as I remember. Great look. Let's hope we can pull it off. Yeah I do see some similarities. The problem is the last storm had COLD air leading in during the storm. This one is marginal. Surface temps are warm even in this happy hour run. Good things I see is it actually has a high in the right place for a good CAD. That would make a difference, but I would bet ice is the predominant p-type. I've got to see some other models show cold and a storm rather than just the 18z GFS run before I get any confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: Navgem still in for storm #1 and looks to have storm #2. One of these will hit... Stop with all the positivity! Your killing me! I wish the Para wasn't broke,it's been stuck on Thursday, since Thursday on TT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Just now, SnowNiner said: Yeah I do see some similarities. The problem is the last storm had COLD air leading in during the storm. This one is marginal. Surface temps are warm even in this happy hour run. Good things I see is it actually has a high in the right place for a good CAD. That would make a difference, but I would bet ice is the predominant p-type. I've got to see some other models show cold and a storm rather than just the 18z GFS run before I get any confidence. That was the biggest problem with the last storm, cold wasn't there ahead of the storm and no damming! I'll take damming any day of the week instead of having to have the cold feed in as storm is ongoing over the mountains , he'll I'll take in-situ, just need cold first! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Stop with all the positivity! Your killing me! I wish the Para wasn't broke,it's been stuck on Thursday, since Thursday on TT Hah...I posted right before the 18z run I thought/hoped days 6-10 would deliver. Just not buying anything after that if we have a big AK low with +NAO. Para is done until May when it takes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 1 hour ago, jburns said: I've already got my imaginary shovel ready. Right. You folks, especially the ones in the eastern half of this forum, must have really short memories. NW trend will take most of NC and SC out of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Do we have any blocking or is that HP running away? We (I) need that HP in place NE of the Apps and not on the west side with cold air trying to be ushered in before moisture arrives. It never makes it over the mountains in time south of I-85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 7 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: That was the biggest problem with the last storm, cold wasn't there ahead of the storm and no damming! I'll take damming any day of the week instead of having to have the cold feed in as storm is ongoing over the mountains , he'll I'll take in-situ, just need cold first! Nah, the cold got there...it was just the warm nose crap weasel was too stinking strong. That's the thing imagine these temps with another strong warm nose. Boo. But yes, strong cad would help imo. One other positive that would be nice if it showed up, is its sloooow. That thing on gfs is crawling. Last storm flew by.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, mrdaddyman said: Right. You folks, especially the ones in the eastern half of this forum, must have really short memories. NW trend will take most of NC and SC out of this storm. I wonder what it is about the models that make them repeatedly forecast tracks too far to the southeast until right before the event. I mean at NCEP and ECMWF everybody including the receptionists must know about it. Apparently fixing it is not a trivial task. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 23 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Someone already said it but I'll say it too. This snow map has the same look as the GFS a week or so before our Jan 7th/8th storm. North of 85: You're Golden. South of 85: Enjoy the drought relief! That one actually trended a little south at day 10. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/applications/core/interface/imageproxy/imageproxy.php?img=http://i68.tinypic.com/fax9cm.png&key=fa5eb69377d83b80aefd6d83ffa4972c7fca75897d39326f8b7ec5ca83dc50f7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 With the early January storm moisture got here early (south of I-85) and temperatures struggled to drop. The cold air never made it in time. Moisture got here before the cold air and that was a major issue. Radar showed snow for 8 hours but it didn't changeover to snow until the last light band of moisture moved through and we got wrap around snow flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.