CaryWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Believe it's the absence of a true valid cold signal brick that most are not confident in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 11 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Believe it's the absence of a true valid cold signal brick that most are not confident in Models can't seem to get the storm track locked in at days 6-7, maybe they are missing the cold somehow? Wishful thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Wow...not sure what to think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 We'll find a way to whiff on both of those LP's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: Wow...not sure what to think. It's alright. You can say it. Everybody knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: Wow...not sure what to think. Think warm thoughts, like a day at the beach, or radiant heat from this dumpster fire of a winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Just now, Cold Rain said: It's alright. You can say it. Everybody knows. Pre-emergent party at Packs!?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 At this point it doesn't even matter what the track is, temps are a huge problem either way imo. I'm not sure the exact reason really, but there's just no cold air for the SE. H5 doesn't look bad though, so again I'm not sure why but this next system doesn't even look close to a threat. Maybe it's just the overall models having a problem with the ssw....that's what I'm hoping. Need a big shift in the models, maybe need that ridge back over Alaska and nw Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 I think the lack of Mets and other posters not on here, should scream volumes, in regards to this threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: I think the lack of Mets and other posters not on here, should scream volumes, in regards to this threat Yep...the latest CFS might not be warm enough. Big AK lows, with +NAO's don't tend to promote alot of cold air and snow down here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 I posted a couple of weeks ago joking that we had a chance to be as warm as last winter...well now it looks like we have a great chance to be warmer then last winter in the east. If Feb can finish in that +3 to +4F range that will probably do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: I posted a couple of weeks ago joking that we had a chance to be as warm as last winter...well now it looks like we have a great chance to be warmer then last winter in the east. If Feb can finish in that +3 to +4F range that will probably do it. it's been warm - until yesterday - just enjoying for now ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 I did and still do think the 6-10 day period will give a chance at the very least to VA north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Man I was hoping for a Super Bowl Sunday snowstorm, what is it with this weather, suppose to be winter time at least for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 The Canadian weeklies from 1/26 are cold the entire first half of Feb, FWIW. If you don't know what they are, it's a 32-day, parallel 21-member ensemble run every Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, Jon said: The Canadian weeklies from 1/26 are cold the entire first half of Feb, FWIW. If you don't know what they are, it's a 32-day, parallel 21-member ensemble run every Thursday. Why are we just hearing about them 3 days late, especially if they are cold!! How are they performing lately? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, Jon said: The Canadian weeklies from 1/26 are cold the entire first half of Feb, FWIW. If you don't know what they are, it's a 32-day, parallel 21-member ensemble run every Thursday. You know it's bad when Jon is throwin down the Canadian Weeklies for hope! Almost getting time to roll out the last line of defense -- the DGEX Weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: You know it's bad when Jon is throwin down the Canadian Weeklies for hope! Almost getting time to roll out the last line of defense -- the DGEX Weeklies. Or pioneer weeklies! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 5 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: You know it's bad when Jon is throwin down the Canadian Weeklies for hope! Almost getting time to roll out the last line of defense -- the DGEX Weeklies. They look warm to me.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 5 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: You know it's bad when Jon is throwin down the Canadian Weeklies for hope! Almost getting time to roll out the last line of defense -- the DGEX Weeklies. Ha. Just noticed a new model package on WxBell, my mistake. Not losing hope at all, btw. Plenty of ensemble support for fireworks sometime in the 6-12ish day, then again in the 10-15 day. Enjoy the ride, CR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: They look warm to me.... I said first half of Feb, good god you let your heat bias shine bright sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Gfs is showing some light overrunning on 2/3-2/4 with 850 line just north of I-40. Could be a little surprise there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 18z GFS identical to 12z so far from what i can tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 5 minutes ago, Jon said: I said first half of Feb, good god you let your heat bias shine bright sometimes. Yeah, he's magical like that! I thought he was really rooting for cold and snow! You tell him the first half of Feb and he's posting like days 25 and 35 on his maps! Heat mizer, FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 7 minutes ago, Jon said: I said first half of Feb, good god you let your heat bias shine bright sometimes. There is a lot of heat and bias's in some posts...thats for sure. One of the warmest winters we have had.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, packfan98 said: Gfs is showing some light overrunning on 2/3-2/4 with 850 line just north of I-40. Could be a little surprise there. That was supposed to be the sacrificial storm to lay groundwork for the Super Bowl storm! But has had the snow line right around NC/VA border off and on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 I guess the whole CFS backing off the heat next couple of days ain't happening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Even the happy hour ain't gonna get it done ! Precip only in Central TN, the high is booking it off the Nc coast! Maybe the 10-13th will save us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Only a hint at the beginning of precip of a little Ice. Time to stick a fork in this one I'm afraid.............. Next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 5 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: Only a hint at the beginning of precip of a little Ice. Time to stick a fork in this one I'm afraid.............. Next! Yep, but it's just the appetizer for the 8-10th storm!!!! That's going to be a blockbuster....... rainstorm ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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