DopplerWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 at 240 a wintry mix breaking out in ga/sc, snow in tn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 18z GFS brings a weak wave out in SW flow, into a retreating damming high, at day 9-10...ice in CAD areas...the transient blocking over north atlantic doesn't hold as well as the Euro...critical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, griteater said: 18z GFS brings a weak wave out in SW flow, into a retreating damming high, at day 9-10...ice in CAD areas...the transient blocking over north atlantic doesn't hold as well as the Euro...critical As expected there will be various run to run differences especially from the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Storm signal. All you can ask for at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 6 minutes ago, griteater said: 18z GFS brings a weak wave out in SW flow, into a retreating damming high, at day 9-10...ice in CAD areas...the transient blocking over north atlantic doesn't hold as well as the Euro...critical I thought the blocking looked pretty good there leading up to it, but then petered out quick. That's just got to hold for this to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 It's also after truncation that things go to hell. Not perfect but the pieces are there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Storm signal. All you can ask for at this range. I expect the models to nail exact accumulations down by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 I believe that there will be at least a 3 day window around next weekend where a piece of energy that gets shoved into the GOM can reamplify and move in tandem with a blocking arctic high across the SE. This is what you want to see right now on the models as a snow lover in the SE. Don't go all in on it, but get excited because the models are actually interesting now and we have something to track. I am not getting amped until I see it under 5 days, but I like the pattern change that seems to be on the horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 If nothing else, we've now seen the best case scenario AND the worst case scenario. Now let's nail down the details in the coming week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Anybody have the GEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 5 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Anybody have the GEFS? zonal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 11 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: zonal I counted 20 of 21 members that put snow at rdu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 15 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: zonal Do you know what you are looking at?? These one-word comments are not contributing to the educational value of the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Anybody have the GEFS?Looks similar to the eps . more hits than not Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 minute ago, Cary_Snow95 said: I counted 20 of 21 members that put snow at rdu was looking at the mean, not members. Not a good step in the right direction, but we will see when 0z comes out. Hope i'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 3 minutes ago, pcbjr said: Good luck up there folks! Here's wishing you snow, ice and whatever suits your fancy!!! Indications are good short term. Shoot me about 30 days of 50's and I'd appreciate it in return! Indications are not good, any term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 4 minutes ago, bhamwx205 said: Looks similar to the eps . more hits than not Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk 9 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said: I counted 20 of 21 members that put snow at rdu 22 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: zonal Soooo, which is it? Come on fellas. I think the GEFS looks a ton better than the op. Especially in regards to the storm. I don't see our big boy cutting based off the GEFS H5 maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Soooo, which is it? Come on fellas. I think the GEFS looks a ton better than the op. Especially in regards to the storm. I don't see our big boy cutting based off the GEFS H5 maps.you are right. it's much better than the op. not sure how in the hell it wasn't a step in the right direction. holds onto the block longer than the opSent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 3 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Soooo, which is it? Come on fellas. I think the GEFS looks a ton better than the op. Especially in regards to the storm. I don't see our big boy cutting based off the GEFS H5 maps. IMO Ridge in the Atlantic doesn't hold as well as 12z. Often leads to sepression or plain old FROPA. Hopefully this reverses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: Storm signal. All you can ask for at this range. Yeah, the potential is still there for late next week and it has been showing up for a few days now. As long as the opportunity is still showing then things are looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said: Yeah, the potential is still there for late next week and it has been showing up for a few days now. As long as the opportunity is still showing then things are looking good. Agreed. Lets just enjoy the fact that we have a storm right now to chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 18z GEFS and EPS differ a little in the aleutian ridge and the nao block on day 9..... but at this range it's close enough. Prefer the EPS though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 The 18z GEFS ended up having more hits than the 12z GEFS looking at the individual members. Still liking early Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avalanche Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Southern Virginia and extreme NW NC might have some issues with this system. Areas from around Danville/Hillsville down into West Jefferson/Boone might need to be on the lookout for some fzrn/ip mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 hour ago, packbacker said: 18z GEFS and EPS differ a little in the aleutian ridge and the nao block on day 9..... but at this range it's close enough. Prefer the EPS though. Looks good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 45 minutes ago, SimeonNC said: Brad Panovich also supports the idea for a cold and stormy after early next week. Brad is a great meteorologist. Very down to earth and knowledgeable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 40 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Brad is a great meteorologist. Very down to earth and knowledgeable. Conservative too. If he really starts talking cold weather and winter precip it's time to pay attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Looking at how the GFS/GFS-Para/Euro has done the past 10 days or so. Below is a 48 hour model prog (top left), so should be fairly close to reality, and then top right is GFS, bottom left is Euro and bottom right is Para, all from Dec 21st for the same date to compare. The Op GFS isn't even close, the Para/Euro are fairly good. In fact, the Op Euro picked up on the blocking (NAO) a little better then it's own ensemble at this range. The para picked up on the NAO too. The Op GFS started getting a clue inside day 7 and was reasonable at day 5. Edit: The GEPS was awful, not even close at day 9, didn't even bother looking much into it. The GEFS/EPS were both reasonable at day 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 14 minutes ago, jshetley said: Conservative too. If he really starts talking cold weather and winter precip it's time to pay attention. Yeah I agree. He is very conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justanobody Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Most mets in the SE are conservative.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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