Cold Rain Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 11 minutes ago, Wow said: We're still quite a bit out from this one but the setup looks enticing. Regardless, for this to work the PNA ridge MUST be in place and the PV over SE Canada. Got to have well established cold air in place. That was our issue with the early Jan event for those S of 85 Exactly. Completely agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Exactly. Completely agree. Wouldn't mind that PV settling a little further SE into Maine. Pretty good agreement though on PNA ridge and PV in SE Canada between the Op and EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 GFS showing potential on the 12th. Hour 360 still out in la la land. But something to look at Edit: I hate to go into detail 360 hours out but look at that High placement in the NE and the LP tracking just off the coast of the Carolinas. A thing of beauty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, WarmNose said: GFS showing potential on the 12th. Hour 360 still out in la la land. But something to look at Edit: I hate to go into detail 360 hours out but look at that High placement in the NE and the LP tracking just off the coast of the Carolinas. A thing of beauty I know it's 360, but the ugly stick on that map is the lakes low, CR's besty! also, in case y'all are interested, Weatherbell is hiring, y'all can work with your hero! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: I know it's 360, but the ugly stick on that map is the lakes low, CR's besty! also, in case y'all are interested, Weatherbell is hiring, y'all can work with your hero! If that setup occurred verbatim, the Lakes Low wouldn't be an issue. The primary high in the NE has already well established a CAD scenario, and is linked with the other high center over AR. I assume there isn't more frozen shown because the air temps may not be all that cold? Can't tell from that map. But the surface features are present and in locations that would produce a widespread, major winter storm, if there is an abundance of cold, dry air. The Lakes Low is an issue when it interferes with an incoming high and CAA. In this case, I wouldn't worry too much about it. Plus, it's way up in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Also can't tell if that 1032 isn't scooting off to the northeast but if only degrading slowly it could get the job done it looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 General observation...it looks like the PV low in SE Canada wants to slip out to the east on us too quick. We need more clipper type shortwaves feeding into that SE Canada trough in order to reinforce the cold suppressive flow. Euro did that fairly well last night. 06z GFS was too slow to bring the next reinforcing shortwave into the PV low, so our storm cuts. Low chances here but possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Not ideal, but improved suppressive flow on the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Yeah 12z thus far with better reinforcing cold push, more like 18z last night although PV not quite as strong. Still might get interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 1 minute ago, Jonesing for a chase said: Yeah 12z thus far with better reinforcing cold push, more like 18z last night although PV not quite as strong. Still might get interesting. Storm is north of us, but it moved south this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: Storm is north of us, but it moved south this run got plenty of time for it to move more south love to see the euro and cmc hope they hold the southern route they have been showing meaning hopefully the gfs will follow suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Got any pics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 9 minutes ago, griteater said: Storm is north of us, but it moved south this run Yeah, we have seen this before. Seems to be the norm for the models now to show a threat north, then move it way south, and then back NW as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 storm goes south of Tennessee but to close and to warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: storm goes south of Tennessee but to close and to warm Wedge could save us, if it was there! Looks like a Miller B slop fest at best, cold rain worst! Mid Atlantic thread will be going nuts about now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 HP is in a good location but 1024 is too weak I guess. No real cad for east of the Apps. Let's that LP move to far north or Miller b off the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 cmc shows some cold in east Tennessee for a mix. track a littile south of gfs I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 1 minute ago, Mrwolf1972 said: cmc shows some cold in east Tennessee for a mix. track a littile south of gfs I think. Canadien tends to pick up well on CAD events and that is a sick wedge signature right there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Just not cold enough a good track but need cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Agreed Mack that wedge is way down there. Have to figure 850s are clobbered by waa from that look for my area though but who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: Agreed Mack that wedge is way down there. Have to figure 850s are clobbered by waa from that look for my area though but who knows Yep , as modeled, probly be a big ice storm for some in NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 It's a nerd fest in the MA, as expected! Can't wait for the south trend tomorrow ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Not much support from the GEFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 1 minute ago, mrdaddyman said: Not much support from the GEFS: id take E19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Aren't we coming into the euro wheelhouse now? Doesn't it have the highest verification scores at 5-8 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 8 of those members give central NC a little something... inch maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Beggers can't be choosers. Really not a bad place to be right now. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 25 minutes ago, mrdaddyman said: Not much support from the GEFS: I don't think that's a horrible look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 FWIW- Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 3h3 hours ago More euro over warmed for next weekend earlier in week. we said so. Now too cold, snow/ice event likely cent plains to ne not deep south/ma IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Just now, BIG FROSTY said: FWIW- Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 3h3 hours ago More euro over warmed for next weekend earlier in week. we said so. Now too cold, snow/ice event likely cent plains to ne not deep south/ma IMO Of course not! Springs almost here! Times running out for new subscriptions! The Euro will be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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