packbacker Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 On 12/22/2017 at 12:20 AM, franklin NCwx said: Repost this after you take out storm 3. I'm interested what this looks like with only storm 2. Expand It only shows 1-4, 5-8, 9-12 and 13-16. This is 5-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 On 12/21/2017 at 11:39 PM, packbacker said: If the hemispheric pattern is this then yes...bottom is the Op. Expand One thing I like with the top image is the position of the trough is farther east with us around the base rather than the right upswing. Still would like to see it a bit deeper and that western ridge looks a little flat, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormLookout Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 As of now, the GEFS and EPS has the ridge weakening during the time of the 27th-30th system. Miller B possibly? I can see why some are asking themselves, how can a system cut with a high that has a mb more than 1040mb off to the north and east? I'm wondering that too. Things could shift further south as time goes on, especially having a strong arctic high off to the north. Still more questions to be answered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 On 12/21/2017 at 11:46 PM, Orangeburgwx said: give me that 1-2” and call it a winter (would like more but I will take what I can get)That's what she said... LOL. Seriously though. After the last couple of winters I will take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 On 12/22/2017 at 12:14 AM, mackerel_sky said: #SNOmg! Calm down there Panovich. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 On 12/22/2017 at 12:33 AM, StormLookout said: As of now, the GEFS and EPS has the ridge weakening during the time of the 27th-30th system. Miller B possibly? I can see why some are asking themselves, how can a system cut with a high that has a mb more than 1040mb off to the north and east? I'm wondering that too. Things could shift further south as time goes on, especially having a strong arctic high off to the north. Still more questions to be answered. Expand Not only would it shift south, a low PV plus a NE snowpack will keep the air colder longer for the CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 On 12/22/2017 at 12:24 AM, Iceagewhereartthou said: One thing I like with the top image is the position of the trough is farther east with us around the base rather than the right upswing. Still would like to see it a bit deeper and that western ridge looks a little flat, no? Expand GEFS loses the -EPO. Neither really have a stout PNA ridge. EPS still has the -EPO/-WPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Once the GFS gets a clue and sniffs out an entrenched HP, are we going to then see a southern slider storm track pop up out of nowhere come Sunday / Monday? If it cant see the HP in place, it has to have the LP track completely wrong as well. So what good is the new GfS outside of 7 days? Seems like the common consensus is toss.....toss....toss. This is getting old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 On 12/22/2017 at 12:50 AM, kvegas-wx said: This is getting old. Expand Just like my Browns’ losing streak... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 On 12/22/2017 at 12:54 AM, Orangeburgwx said: Just like my Browns’ losing streak...Bwahahahahahaha!!! A Brown fan!!! Hahahaha!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 With a 1040+ HP, will Atlanta have a chance of getting ice ? Also, aren't Miller B setups more prone to icestorms ? I havent seen a proper southern slider since Jan 9, 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 On 12/22/2017 at 12:54 AM, Orangeburgwx said: Just like my Browns’ losing streak...Sorry man. Steelers fan since 1976. My whole family is from Allentown, PA (just north of Philly) and they're all Eagles fans. They call me the black sheep of the family. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 So whats the forum verdict here? winter storm chances increased or decreased? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 On 12/22/2017 at 1:26 AM, shahroz98 said: With a 1040+ HP, will Atlanta have a chance of getting ice ? Also, aren't Miller B setups more prone to icestorms ? I havent seen a proper southern slider since Jan 9, 2011. Expand On 12/22/2017 at 1:30 AM, SN_Lover said: So whats the forum verdict here? winter storm chances increased or decreased? Expand Right now the GFS is still in la-la land with the set up, the big teller will be the 00z EURO unless the GFS finally gets its crap together at midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 On 12/22/2017 at 1:30 AM, SN_Lover said: So whats the forum verdict here? winter storm chances increased or decreased? Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormLookout Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 On 12/22/2017 at 12:50 AM, kvegas-wx said: Once the GFS gets a clue and sniffs out an entrenched HP, are we going to then see a southern slider storm track pop up out of nowhere come Sunday / Monday? If it cant see the HP in place, it has to have the LP track completely wrong as well. So what good is the new GfS outside of 7 days? Seems like the common consensus is toss.....toss....toss. This is getting old. Expand No one should buy what any model shows beyond 5-7 days. Because beyond that, the models have limited skill. Use models with caution. I agree, toss everything beyond 5-7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 On 12/22/2017 at 1:26 AM, shahroz98 said: With a 1040+ HP, will Atlanta have a chance of getting ice ? Also, aren't Miller B setups more prone to icestorms ? I havent seen a proper southern slider since Jan 9, 2011. Expand Can be some snow in a Miller B, but pretty much everyone would flip to sleet or frz rain. Atlanta's in the game here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 On 12/22/2017 at 1:30 AM, SN_Lover said: So whats the forum verdict here? winter storm chances increased or decreased? Expand Today they've increased IMO! Could / will be different opinion tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 On 12/21/2017 at 11:11 PM, packbacker said: By far the best GEFS run...the snow mean has to be a Mack special. Haven’t seen it yet. Expand Looking at the Ens mean sfc precip and temps, it was colder for next week, closer to the CMC and Euro means...and looked nice and suppressed with moisture in early Jan. If we're lucky we may get more than one shot here like NCSNOW has mentioned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 On 12/21/2017 at 11:54 PM, Jonathan said: Think I've seen the statement, but does that setup on the GEFS contain similarities with Feb 2014? Expand GEFS/EPS I think look similar to these...those 3 winter events were OK. I think many on here wants 88, you and points N want 14, and people SE of here want 89. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Looking at the above broken out you can see why 89 is the most suppressed... 88 and 14 both had some form of atlantic ridge, which we will have I am sure as we get closer. That's assuming there is an event at all for our areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 On 12/22/2017 at 2:08 AM, packbacker said: GEFS/EPS I think look similar to these...those 3 winter events were OK. I think many on here wants 88, you and points N want 14, and people SE of here want 89. Expand Hey, I’ll take an 88 OR a 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 On 12/22/2017 at 2:15 AM, packbacker said: Looking at the above broken out you can see why 89 is the most suppressed... 88 and 14 both had some form of atlantic ridge, which we will have I am sure as we get closer. That's assuming there is an event at all for our areas. Expand The pool of negative heights over the Great Lakes, an obvious key precursor feature for suppression, whether the NAO is neg or pos. Nice work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Tonight's Euro weeklies are cold and wet next week and thru the first week in Jan (+ precip anomalies focused over the SE U.S.), then they ease into a nasty +EPO/+AO pattern thru the end of the month (warmer than normal) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 On 12/22/2017 at 2:08 AM, packbacker said: GEFS/EPS I think look similar to these...those 3 winter events were OK. I think many on here wants 88, you and points N want 14, and people SE of here want 89. Expand Wow, that's actually a pretty decent look when you mesh them all together. You can clearly see similarities. What's the link to look back on old setups? Thanks pack! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 I REALLY had to dig for this... 500mb heights for the infamous February 1973 blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 On 12/22/2017 at 12:02 AM, broken024 said: Anyone have the individual gefs snow maps Expand First one is Dec 21-Dec 31. Second one is Dec 21-Jan 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 On 12/22/2017 at 3:04 AM, griteater said: First one is Dec 21-Dec 31. Second one is Dec 21-Jan 6 Expand E5 and E10 gives me over a foot... seems a bit overblown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 On 12/22/2017 at 3:04 AM, griteater said: First one is Dec 21-Dec 31. Second one is Dec 21-Jan 6 Expand Man, member a19 is the shiz in this run. So you say there's a chance? LOL! As far as the pattern relaxing after the 2nd week of January, I would be very surprised if it didn't. I can't remember a winter without a nice January thaw. A repeat of December in February would be awesome but against the odds. The way this Nina has played out, nothing would shock me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 E10...have mercy! edit: Agree Dixie on pattern relaxing in Jan but a nice winter rhythm going if it worked out. Early Dec Early Jan ....and Early Feb opportunities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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