Orangeburgwx Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/20/2017 at 5:10 PM, packbacker said: What a change on the ensembles. Been Charlie Browned... Expand I really hope that is just a bad run and not the new trend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 As expected, the 12Z GEFS is way different than the op. much more expansive with the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/20/2017 at 5:18 PM, packbacker said: Hanging on.... Expand Cue the Kim Wilde... "You just keep me hangin' on..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthWake33 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Anybody seen Jon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/20/2017 at 5:20 PM, PackGrad05 said: As expected, the 12Z GEFS is way different than the op. much more expansive with the cold air. Expand Too busy hyperventilating over an OP run to read this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/20/2017 at 5:19 PM, Orangeburgwx said: I really hope that is just a bad run and not the new trend... Expand It’s warmer then the crazy cold runs but still OK. In all seriousness I think our chance will come in early Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/20/2017 at 5:08 PM, Orangeburgwx said: Expand I wouldn't believe that map from the GFS if it was for this Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Day 7-10 qpf. Trying to figure out why there is so much precip in the Atlantic. Bunch of miller b’s in the member’s I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/20/2017 at 5:27 PM, packbacker said: Day 7-10 qpf. Trying to figure out why there is so much precip in the Atlantic. Bunch of miller b’s in the member’s I guess. Expand Nothing like a hanging your hopes on a Miller B to salvage winter. Yayy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Wow at the GEFS Mean. This is for 12 days out. Be nice if this was for this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/20/2017 at 5:32 PM, WarmNose said: Nothing like a hanging your hopes on a Miller B to salvage winter. Yayy Expand Day 9-11 members look really snowy in the SE...FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/20/2017 at 5:34 PM, mrdaddyman said: Wow at the GEFS Mean. This is for 12 days out. Be nice if this was for this weekend. Expand This is a very good sign... forget what the OP shows this far out, look at the Ensembles! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/20/2017 at 3:27 PM, tramadoc said: Hahahaha... Today. Expand you called it buddy, took less than two hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Okay Orangeburgwx... Here it is. Page 300. Posted right after you. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 I don't know, I get the feeling models are broken with this warm slab and cold stripe underneath. Looks like the Earth wants to release a lot of energy out to Space. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 FWIW, it's technically impossible for a LP to move into an area of HP, correct? It has to go under it (around it)? If that's the case, why does the GFS seem to depict this at least once a winter? Shouldn't that be in the coding of the program? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 The trends over the past few days is as good as it gets...well, considering. Improving NPac ridge that scours out the higher heights in the SE. This will get Mack his 88 repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/20/2017 at 5:56 PM, tramadoc said: FWIW, it's technically impossible for a LP to move into an area of HP, correct? It has to go under it (around it)? If that's the case, why does the GFS seem to depict this at least once a winter? Shouldn't that be in the coding of the program? Expand In this case the HP is transient and moves out so it seems like the LP is running up through it when in reality it's not. If there is blocking the HP will stay in place and the LP will run underneath it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/20/2017 at 6:01 PM, mrdaddyman said: In this case the HP is transient and moves out so it seems like the LP is running up through it when in reality it's not. If there is blocking the HP will stay in place and the LP will run underneath it. Expand No way a LP can run through a blocking HP like the GFS has been showing, everything is going to be driven southward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/20/2017 at 5:56 PM, packbacker said: The trends over the past few days is as good as it gets...well, considering. Improving NPac ridge that scours out the higher heights in the SE. This will get Mack his 88 repeat. Expand For a time last Januarys storm was looking very similar but then backed off on the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/20/2017 at 4:29 PM, mackerel_sky said: I'm only out to the 27th, but could be setting up for a big wedgy! Grit said we needed faster ejection, we got it! Just into not so cold air! Expand Faster ejection is no match for a lack of frontside cold penetration We already need a reboot on this EPO pattern change. Poster kvegas FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Brick says Euro looking amazeballs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/20/2017 at 5:32 PM, WarmNose said: Nothing like a hanging your hopes on a Miller B to salvage winter. Yayy Expand Yeah, you can tell by the precip maximums and track on the GEFS that the source is cutters and miller Bs. Not really a fan. But, who knows, in the Carolinas we can score Bs but the CAD has to be completely legit and NOT marginal. We've done pretty well too when the northern stream energy really digs and creates a Hybrid Miller A/B. I think the February 2014 storm may have been a hybrid if I'm not mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Euro day 8-10 is about a sure things as you can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Expecting that SE Canadian high to lift quickly NE and that low to shoot up west of the Apps on the next frame. Let's see if I'm right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/20/2017 at 6:51 PM, packbacker said: Euro day 8-10 is about a sure things as you can get. Expand There are no sure things around here , except rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/20/2017 at 6:53 PM, Cold Rain said: Expecting that SE Canadian high to lift quickly NE and that low to shoot up west of the Apps on the next frame. Let's see if I'm right. Expand I'm really tired of all this negativity! Pack said its good, it's good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/20/2017 at 6:53 PM, Cold Rain said: Expecting that SE Canadian high to lift quickly NE and that low to shoot up west of the Apps on the next frame. Let's see if I'm right. Expand But it's impossible for a LP to move into a blocking high!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/20/2017 at 6:55 PM, Poimen said: But it's impossible for a LP to move into a blocking high!!!! Expand I know, right? We keep hearing that winter after winter. I am still digging out from under feet of day 10 snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Looks like a SE winter storm on day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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