SnowNiner Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Yay, fantasy snow maps. I like this game! If any of those ensemble members came true I'd gladly take 3 zero snow years as payment. Now if we could just get them on an operational run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 On 12/19/2017 at 9:33 PM, SnowNiner said: Yay, fantasy snow maps. I like this game! If any of those ensemble members came true I'd gladly take 3 zero snow years as payment. Now if we could just get them on an operational run. Expand You may regret that when the 2019-20 winter rolls around and you haven't seen snow in 2 years ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 On 12/19/2017 at 9:06 PM, Queencitywx said: 19 is a cold rain special Expand Yeah, I'd prolly be ok with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Brick and Cold rain bullseye = fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Let’s reel in this bad boy. Start the thread! Beach snow is a given, mark my words and screenshot this post for later. I’m pretty much an expert, I’ve been here all summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 On 12/19/2017 at 9:51 PM, goldman75 said: Let’s reel in this bad boy. Start the thread! Beach snow is a given, mark my words and screenshot this post for later. I’m pretty much an expert, I’ve been here all summer. Expand The beaches are due, but no, this would be an epic fail. If they got 12+ while I collected a backend dusting I don't think I would be able to sleep at night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 How about TX for this time frame? Can anyone expand the map a little bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 18z GFS coming in looks a little better than the poor 12z run...out to 159 on Dec 26, it's cold with sfc high in Dakotas...how long will the cold hang on though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 On 12/19/2017 at 10:15 PM, griteater said: 18z GFS coming in looks a little better than the poor 12z run...out to 159 on Dec 26, it's cold with sfc high in Dakotas...how long will the cold hang on though Expand Until precip moves in! Then it's peace out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 On 12/19/2017 at 10:17 PM, mackerel_sky said: Until precip moves in! Then it's peace out! Expand May be...the storm waves hitting the west coast behind our cold trough don't have enough umph...not ejecting out fast enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 On 12/19/2017 at 10:17 PM, mackerel_sky said: Until precip moves in! Then it's peace out! Expand "The storm hasn't even been sampled yet. It will be on land in 2 days then the models will have a better handle on it." This is one of my all time favorite weenie lines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 The run to run model differences are comical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 On 12/19/2017 at 10:26 PM, WarmNose said: "The storm hasn't even been sampled yet. It will be on land in 2 days then the models will have a better handle on it." This is one of my all time favorite weenie lines Expand Things usually get worse when we get better sampling. GFS out to 204....looks like we probably get another cutting low, though eastern damming is stronger this run. GFS is banging on northern stream energy in the Pac NW instead of bringing out a southern piece from the 4 corners Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Models shouldn't be run past 3-5 days. Borrowing a line from our friend CR, the "sucktitude" beyond day 5 grows exponentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 On 12/19/2017 at 10:13 PM, vwgrrc said: How about TX for this time frame? Can anyone expand the map a little bit Expand http://www.weather.gov/ http://www.pivotalweather.com/ https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ https://weather.us/ http://wx.graphics/ https://www.wunderground.com/ http://www.intellicast.com/ These are my main sources. All free and all accessible. For Euro ensemble maps I use weather.us. Here is one wild member for a good part of Texas and pretty much everyone else in the Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 On 12/19/2017 at 10:29 PM, griteater said: Things usually get worse when we get better sampling. GFS out to 204....looks like we probably get another cutting low, though eastern damming is stronger this run. GFS is banging on northern stream energy in the Pac NW instead of bringing out a southern piece from the 4 corners Expand Got a nice low in SE Canada, ebNAO and diving wave. We still suck? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 On 12/19/2017 at 10:33 PM, packbacker said: Got a nice low in SE Canada, ebNAO and diving wave. We still suck? Expand Of course we do. Low in Arkansas, farther south this run. Sfc high working off the mid atlantic coast. Light frz rain in W NC then warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 We get cold shot, cutter, cold shot on the GFS it looks like. It could happen. Interesting pattern though. Model runs are hinting at prolonged SW flow overrunning solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 On 12/19/2017 at 10:37 PM, griteater said: We get cold shot, cutter, cold shot on the GFS it looks like. It could happen. Interesting pattern though. Model runs are hinting at prolonged SW flow overrunning solutions Expand We can claim victory with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 man Texas got buried in Freezing Rain at 348.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 On 12/19/2017 at 10:50 PM, Orangeburgwx said: man Texas got buried in Freezing Rain at 348.. Expand Lol 348 ? That's next year isn't it ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 On 12/19/2017 at 10:37 PM, griteater said: We get cold shot, cutter, cold shot on the GFS it looks like. It could happen. Interesting pattern though. Model runs are hinting at prolonged SW flow overrunning solutions Expand I can't tell if you're optimistic or doubtful here. Your posting index is up recently, but the tone is overall defeated. Do I interpret that you're saying that a cutter is a possibility but you don't see it being likely? Where do you stand on late next week man? Spill it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 On 12/19/2017 at 10:51 PM, SnowNiner said: I can't tell if you're optimistic or doubtful here. Your posting index is up recently, but the tone is overall defeated. Do I interpret that you're saying that a cutter is a possibility but you don't see it being likely? Where do you stand on late next week man? Spill it! Expand Like many I'm sure, I only become interested when legit cold air is a possibility. We have a chance at some legit cold air in this setup...but it's always touch and go because legit cold air can lift out of the SE in a heartbeat. Who knows on the storm waves out west. No telling how/when/where they eject out, but you can tell on the models that we don't have a nice subtropical jet wave train pushing the waves steadily west to east into California. The Euro Ensemble 5 day average here looks pretty good, with the way the below normal anomalies are spread out west to east. We can score in this kind of pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 On 12/19/2017 at 8:59 PM, packbacker said: Darn you for pointing that out! I can't unsee this...ColdRain only gets 12" and Brick gets 2ft. Expand If that comes to fruition, I'll walk buck naked down the center of Main St. in Elizabeth City and I will give you 12 hours to get a crowd gathered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 On 12/19/2017 at 11:27 PM, tramadoc said: If that comes to fruition, I'll walk buck naked down the center of Main St. in Elizabeth City and I will give you 12 hours to get a crowd gathered. Expand Well, I wouldn't go that far, but I will be pleasantly surprised if that forecast were to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Dec to date snowfall percent of normal. It's off in some areas like RDU to CLT to GSP to Athens to Macon, GA corridor I think...and others I'm sure...but it gives the general idea of snowfall across the country....skimpy out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 On 12/19/2017 at 7:17 PM, griteater said: Looking at the 12z GFS Ens members for the time period after the arctic front passes, I see 8 with storms that cut, 7 with storms showing wintry precip in the SE, and 5 with no storm...so, not bad having the 7 Expand 18z GFS Ens members - 8 cutters, 8 SE wintry storms, 4 others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 I can’t recall a period where the temp departures were negative in NA and positive everywhere else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/20/2017 at 12:08 AM, packbacker said: I can’t recall a period where the temp departures were negative in NA and positive everywhere else. Expand There's no way we mess this up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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