cbmclean Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 On 12/17/2017 at 10:07 PM, FLweather said: I look at Nam all the time. Every time I look at gfs/euro I look at nam too. Each model has their differences. Got too look at all models. If not a bias it becomes. Can't ask about the cold that was predicted. But the future is now. Where that death ridge ?! Expand Mack taunted the SER a few days ago and it came back for vengeance. Don't you start now too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Can we go ahead and book this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Please be correct to start Jan.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 On 12/17/2017 at 11:42 PM, packbacker said: Can we go ahead and book this one... Expand Is that the pioneer model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 On 12/17/2017 at 9:06 PM, Cold Rain said: Yep. I don’t think it’s possible to get into a cold and snowy pattern for the southeast anymore....not without a strongly negative west NAO. Unfortunately, that index goes positive as soon as winter begins and remains that way at least until winter is over. Expand And then it comes back with a raging vengeance about April and stays for 2 - 3 months when it does us absolutely no good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 On 12/17/2017 at 11:42 PM, packbacker said: Can we go ahead and book this one... Expand GEFS has lost it's ever-loving mind: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 On 12/17/2017 at 9:06 PM, Cold Rain said: Yep. I don’t think it’s possible to get into a cold and snowy pattern for the southeast anymore....not without a strongly negative west NAO. Unfortunately, that index goes positive as soon as winter begins and remains that way at least until winter is over. Expand I look at this every winter and hope...not sure in our lifetimes we will see a pattern like we say from the late 50's to the 80's. Since then we have had a perpetual aleutian ridge with a atlantic ridge and a +NAO for the icing on the cake. It's a miracle we have seen any snow, I am hoping for a nuisance sleet storm this winter, we can usually pull one of those off. Complete opposites... Today's EPS run...fortunate the NPac ridge is further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 On 12/18/2017 at 12:51 AM, mrdaddyman said: GEFS has lost it's ever-loving mind: Expand I would give a crisp c-note to whomever can make E-9 happen.... Unfortunately it will probably look more like E-19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 On 12/18/2017 at 12:54 AM, packbacker said: I look at this every winter and hope...not sure in our lifetimes we will see a pattern like we say from the late 50's to the 80's. Since then we have had a perpetual aleutian ridge with a atlantic ridge and a +NAO for the icing on the cake. It's a miracle we have seen any snow, I am hoping for a nuisance sleet storm this winter, we can usually pull one of those off. Complete opposites... Expand Maybe it flips every 30 years? On a side note, does it puzzle anyone else that the Bering strait has apparently been above 1981 -2010 climo during both 1958 - 1988 and 1989 - 2017? Is that mathematically possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 On 12/18/2017 at 12:55 AM, CAD_Wedge_NC said: I would give a crisp c-note to whomever can make E-9 happen.... Unfortunately it will probably look more like E-19 Expand I'd give 2 crisp Benjamin's, if they could make e12 happen! Just for CR and PB! Merry Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Everyone knows that the only time we get an extended period of a -NAO is from May to October. Once November hits, the -NAO disappears as quickly bourbon around me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 On 12/18/2017 at 12:55 AM, CAD_Wedge_NC said: I would give a crisp c-note to whomever can make E-9 happen.... Unfortunately it will probably look more like E-19 Expand E9 or E20 is cool with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 On 12/18/2017 at 1:15 AM, mackerel_sky said: I'd give 2 crisp Benjamin's, if they could make e12 happen! Just for CR and PB! Merry Christmas! Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 On 12/18/2017 at 1:14 AM, cbmclean said: Maybe it flips every 30 years? On a side note, does it puzzle anyone else that the Bering strait has apparently been above 1981 -2010 climo during both 1958 - 1988 and 1989 - 2017? Is that mathematically possible? Expand It took me a second to wrap my head around that too, but it's just because only the months of Dec-Feb are listed - anomalies throughout the rest of the year must make up for the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 On 12/18/2017 at 1:27 AM, ajr said: It took me a second to wrap my head around that too, but it's just because only the months of Dec-Feb are listed - anomalies throughout the rest of the year must make up for the difference. Expand Ah, I had assumed that the climatology base from for Dec - Feb also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Cold air coming in quicker on 0z GFS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Much colder this run, about 10+ degrees colder for most on Christmas eve compared to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Cold Rains best friend is back and stronger than ever! Great Lakes low says Merry Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Even though not much wintry, I'll take this cold by the 0z GFS rather than the torch from earlier runs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Well, GFS says white Christmas for the mountains and...New Orleans and southside Atlanta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 On 12/18/2017 at 4:31 AM, Jonathan said: Well, GFS says white Christmas for the mountains and...New Orleans and southside Atlanta Expand Good to see the blowtorch go away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 All I want to know at this point is can I build a fire at Christmas without feeling like I'm muscling in on the SER's side of the street. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Something big is brewing in the Midwest on GFS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 On 12/18/2017 at 4:41 AM, BornAgain13 said: Something big is brewing in the Midwest on GFS.... Expand Yeah, Just a weak 1060 high entering the N.Plains, while low pressure south of Texas.......... #yummy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 1060 HP! Do Polar Bears come with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Even in fantasy range it turns into a cutter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Makes for a decent CAD event at the end of the month! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 lol, is that even possible with a 1043 and a 1034 HP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 That is odd - you would think we would have suppression with that kind of double barreled high pressure, not a massive Lakes cutter slp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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