snowlover91 Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 On 12/10/2017 at 6:51 PM, packbacker said: Euro looks great...bring the heat. Expand Good thing that only lasts for a day or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 On 12/10/2017 at 6:48 PM, fritschy said: NW Trend most likely. Expand Just verbatim that looks textbook to me, precipitation will almost always be farther west than depicted. Looks colder than setup we just had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 It's a wait an see...main thing is to have the tall western ridge so that the wave dives deeply south into New Mexico / W Texas which would place a low in the gulf. Without that, it's a weak system that moves across the TN Valley. Cold air will be a challenge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 It's not a threat until we start seeing some juicy clown maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 On 12/10/2017 at 6:51 PM, packbacker said: Euro looks great...bring the heat. Expand Glad to have you back! That's 5 days after our "new " storm! Good try tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 On 12/10/2017 at 6:25 PM, griteater said: New Euro coming in looks improved with the storm. Has low in NE gulf moving across N FL. It's having trouble though getting precip back into the cold air which is to the NW across N GA and W NC Expand According to Widre, there's no cold air to work with!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 On 12/10/2017 at 7:20 PM, mackerel_sky said: According to Widre, there's no cold air to work with!? Expand Euro is warmer than UK aloft so it depends on how the setup and details work out. NAVGEM is also fairly cold as well so Euro appears alone in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 On 12/10/2017 at 7:23 PM, snowlover91 said: Euro is warmer than UK aloft so it depends on how the setup and details work out. NAVGEM is also fairly cold as well so Euro appears alone in that regard. Expand Well the UkMET and NAVGEM have both done well with this recent storm(around 5-6 days out) and did pretty well in January. Euro on the other hand wasn't that great. Perhaps the western ridge can trend higher with future runs because if it doesn't, there won't be any real cold air around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 On 12/10/2017 at 6:34 PM, PackGrad05 said: Maybe I notice it more because I follow the models a lot more, but it is so frustrating that it can be freezing cold and then when the precipitation gets here, it is just warm enough for a cold miserable rain. (Raleigh area) Expand Not only am I not a met, but I am not even a hard-core amateur, but it is my understanding that this is a basic facet of our climatology. It is in the nature of approaching systems to pull warm air ahead of them from the south. It takes a very specific atmospheric configuration to prevent an approaching system from flooding us with warm air, and that configuration does not occur often. It was something that drove me crazy even back in grade school and still drives me crazy now. For me though, just having cold temperatures around is better than nothing. So far I am enjoying this December much more than last year or the "December to remember" of 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 On 12/10/2017 at 7:19 PM, mackerel_sky said: Glad to have you back! That's 5 days after our "new " storm! Good try tho Expand Well the EPS snow mean has snow potential across the conus...sans Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 If it's not a CAD event, I ain't tracking. Where is this once in a generation epic 100 year Greenland block you guys were talking about? Pretty disappointed atm but then again it's only December 10th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 On 12/10/2017 at 9:39 PM, packbacker said: Well the EPS snow mean has snow potential across the conus...sans Florida. Expand This map has Durango, Mexico wth a better shot at 2" than MBY. Toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Perhaps some severe could be in store for Dixie late month. That will be worth keeping an eye on as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 On 12/10/2017 at 10:19 PM, WarmNose said: If it's not a CAD event, I ain't tracking. Where is this once in a generation epic 100 year Greenland block you guys were talking about? Pretty disappointed atm but then again it's only December 10th Expand Something tells me your first sentence will be a fail...ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Hate to be a Darryl downer but i'm not in love with the precip pattern. Clippers don't bode well for 90% of this forum. Hoping for some change as we move into January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 On 12/10/2017 at 10:34 PM, WarmNose said: Hate to be a Darryl downer but i'm not in love with the precip pattern. Clippers don't bode well for 90% of this forum. Hoping for some change as we move into January Expand I'm not even a 1/4 as knowledgeable about weather on here as most, like Grit, et al, but those storms on the Ukie and NAVGEM around the 16th, are not clippers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 On 12/10/2017 at 10:41 PM, mackerel_sky said: I'm not even a 1/4 as knowledgeable about weather on here as most, like Grit, et al, but those storms on the Ukie and NAVGEM around the 16th, are not clippers! Expand I agree. I just see too much action out of the north. Like I said, I hope I'm just being a downer. Just like to see more entering the CONUS out of SoCal. I'm no expert, I just have my preferred looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 On 12/10/2017 at 11:47 PM, WarmNose said: I agree. I just see too much action out of the north. Like I said, I hope I'm just being a downer. Just like to see more entering the CONUS out of SoCal. I'm no expert, I just have my preferred looks. Expand A wave coming down the Rockies and rounding an eastern trough, is also an acceptable way to get a good southern storm. Anything coming from a W or SW trajectory is acceptable, never from N or NW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Joe BastardiVerified account @BigJoeBastardi 43m43 minutes ago More Its the pattern. If the pattern fits, then model hints are not laughable. Ensembles are sniffing this pattern out, so raising the spectre of another snow or ice, since alot of low level cold air is coming Christmas week IMO, in the deep south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 384hr warm nose . In all seriousness, I believe this is the year. I don't like to bring the board down, I just like to set my expectations low. That way, it's hard to lose. I've been following this board since 2009 so, in a way, I guess you could say I'm a vet around here (in terms of page clicks NOT experience). You guys are very insighthful and I attribute the little amount that I do know to you guys. With that said, has anyone looked at the LR GFS? What's going on with that precip that's stalled out from 264-384? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 On 12/10/2017 at 11:47 PM, WarmNose said: I agree. I just see too much action out of the north. Like I said, I hope I'm just being a downer. Just like to see more entering the CONUS out of SoCal. I'm no expert, I just have my preferred looks. Expand This isn’t a clipper if it follows the UK and now the Euro track. It’s a classic Miller A track which is what brings some of the best snows to the Southeast provided the cold is in place. Those details will become clear as we get closer but for now the overall idea of a Miller A in the GOM then up off the East Coast is a classic track. You can’t ask for much more other than a stout HP in the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 On 12/11/2017 at 1:01 AM, BIG FROSTY said: Joe BastardiVerified account @BigJoeBastardi 43m43 minutes ago More Its the pattern. If the pattern fits, then model hints are not laughable. Ensembles are sniffing this pattern out, so raising the spectre of another snow or ice, since alot of low level cold air is coming Christmas week IMO, in the deep south Expand What up BF!? You and JB getting together for for the holidays!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 On 12/11/2017 at 1:12 AM, WarmNose said: 384hr warm nose . In all seriousness, I believe this is the year. I don't like to bring the board down, I just like to set my expectations low. That way, it's hard to lose. I've been following this board since 2009 so, in a way, I guess you could say I'm a vet around here (in terms of page clicks NOT experience). You guys are very insighthful and I attribute the little amount that I do know to you guys. With that said, has anyone looked at the LR GFS? What's going on with that precip that's stalled out from 264-384? Expand Just past 10 day noise, I'd guess! It looks like the general idea of an Arctic front coming down and stalling with some overrunning! You don't want that look, IMO. That N TX to W TN ice and snow, will never translate to anything good for us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 On 12/11/2017 at 1:30 AM, mackerel_sky said: What up BF!? You and JB getting together for for the holidays!? Maybe to sing Christmas carols? ️️. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Hard to get winter off to a better start than where we sit currently. Just using GSO November ended up BN and after today's departures get figured in, DEC will be BN and on its way to what will end up being a pretty heavy handed BN temp departure by months end. To put icing on the cake, quite a few posters have achieved as much as 200% their anual snowfall avg, while others have put a big dent in theirs. Yes some folks missed out, but we have alot to look forward to the rest of the month. Several posters east of the mtns should score 1 possiby 2 frozen precip events before we yank all the Christmas decorations down. Of course the big winners are the mtn folk. At a minimum multiple upslope chances on the horizon remainder of the month in addition to cashing in on a couple of synoptic events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 On 12/11/2017 at 1:01 AM, BIG FROSTY said: Joe BastardiVerified account @BigJoeBastardi 43m43 minutes ago More Its the pattern. If the pattern fits, then model hints are not laughable. Ensembles are sniffing this pattern out, so raising the spectre of another snow or ice, since alot of low level cold air is coming Christmas week IMO, in the deep south Expand What stands out to me more than anything else is the amount of snow-cover projected to be in the northeast. That's our ticket to good confluence moving forward. I like the pattern coming up more so than the last event. Even though we did have some snow here in the foothills, we were still on the outside looking in with respect to the huge totals just to our west. I am going to pay more attention to the NAVGEM with this next event. It has the hot hand right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Isn't it time for the UKMET or CMC or something! Let's do this!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 On 12/11/2017 at 2:13 AM, mackerel_sky said: Isn't it time for the UKMET or CMC or something! Let's do this!! Expand GFS starts around 10:30, CMC about 10:45 and UK usually has detailed maps about 11:30-45 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Baby step on the GFS with the western ridge and sharper trough...and we have some light snow breaking out in NE GA to W NC to VA Fri morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 CMC is a miss and just has some light precip scooting across FL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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