mackerel_sky Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 On 12/10/2017 at 5:18 PM, NC_hailstorm said: Ukie has a 1011 low SE of Louisiana at 120,1007 low just off the Carolina coast at 144.Temps look to be colder in the upper south. Interesting Expand Did well with our last " event" I believe, along with NAVGEM! Would like the Euro to get onboard, this is only 6-7 days out! Cold rain, is all in!! What's he got to lose!? More cold rain Where's Packbacker? Did he already burn out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 On 12/10/2017 at 5:18 PM, NC_hailstorm said: Ukie has a 1011 low SE of Louisiana at 120,1007 low just off the Carolina coast at 144.Temps look to be colder in the upper south. Interesting Expand Here’s the UK precip map. Appears to be a legit NC threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 On 12/10/2017 at 5:18 PM, NC_hailstorm said: Ukie has a 1011 low SE of Louisiana at 120,1007 low just off the Carolina coast at 144.Temps look to be colder in the upper south. Interesting Expand I think it's supposed to get really cold We'd/ Thursday, maybe we will have some stale Arctic air to work with, but with no blocking..... Sketchy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 On 12/10/2017 at 5:29 PM, snowlover91 said: Here’s the UK precip map. Appears to be a legit NC threat. Expand I don't think the cold will be there at that point in time, and you know it's coming NW!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 On 12/10/2017 at 5:28 PM, mackerel_sky said: Did well with our last " event" I believe, along with NAVGEM! Would like the Euro to get onboard, this is only 6-7 days out! Cold rain, is all in!! What's he got to lose!? More cold rain Where's Packbacker? Did he already burn out? Expand Lol, a Low over the Gulf states and then off the NC coast at D6 with no high and no CAD? 0% chance Raleigh sees anything other than a predominantly cold rain. Nah, I think I'll go ahead and be all out on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 On 12/10/2017 at 5:31 PM, mackerel_sky said: I don't think the cold will be there at that point in time, and you know it's coming NW!! Expand looks plenty cold to me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 On 12/10/2017 at 5:31 PM, mackerel_sky said: I don't think the cold will be there at that point in time, and you know it's coming NW!! Expand What basis do you have for this? There is PLENTY of cold on the 500mb map. This isn’t like our last system where we are waiting and hoping the cold arrives in time, it will already be in place and it’s a matter of how far south the energy digs. Verbatim, this track is a Central to Eastern NC crusher with 4-8” of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 On 12/10/2017 at 5:36 PM, snowlover91 said: What basis do you have for this? There is PLENTY of cold on the 500mb map. This isn’t like our last system where we are waiting and hoping the cold arrives in time, it will already be in place and it’s a matter of how far south the energy digs. Verbatim, this track is a Central to Eastern NC crusher with 4-8” of snow. https://i.imgur.com/f3wDZFK.gifv Expand This time we'll be hoping the cold doesn't leave and that the system will quit trending NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 On 12/10/2017 at 5:35 PM, fountainguy97 said: looks plenty cold to me lol Expand Almost a caddish look to that lobe, but not quite. Loser lakes low incoming I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 On 12/10/2017 at 5:38 PM, Cold Rain said: This time we'll be hoping the cold doesn't leave and that the system will quit trending NW. Expand I’ll take my chances with a classic Miller A track and cold already in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 On 12/10/2017 at 5:34 PM, Cold Rain said: Lol, a Low over the Gulf states and then off the NC coast at D6 with no high and no CAD? 0% chance Raleigh sees anything other than a predominantly cold rain. Nah, I think I'll go ahead and be all out on this one. Expand Off the NC coast is tight where you want it! Brick will tell you, love the trends! It'll make its own cold air! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 On 12/10/2017 at 5:38 PM, Cold Rain said: This time we'll be hoping the cold doesn't leave and that the system will quit trending NW. Expand agreed. It actually needs to come NW on EURO and GFS and CMC haha but UK looks nice. We could actually handle a small trend NW on UK or a stronger low too. We are not used to having cold already in place before a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Pretty sure that is retreating/relaxing cold but hey we do get our storms on the upbuild or move-out transitions with these patterns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 On 12/10/2017 at 5:36 PM, snowlover91 said: What basis do you have for this? There is PLENTY of cold on the 500mb map. This isn’t like our last system where we are waiting and hoping the cold arrives in time, it will already be in place and it’s a matter of how far south the energy digs. Verbatim, this track is a Central to Eastern NC crusher with 4-8” of snow. Expand The lack of cold was based on my local forecast that has a high of 55 and 60 for next Sat/Sun, and local AFD saying next weekend temps were at normal! If we sped this up to Thursday, we could be golden Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 On 12/10/2017 at 5:44 PM, CaryWx said: Pretty sure that is retreating/relaxing cold but hey we do get our storms on the upbuild or move-out transitions with these patterns Expand I'd like to try a storm with retreating cold air! Most busts in my backyard, occur when precip gets here ahead of the cold! Seeing as that for whatever reason, our winter storms seem to arrive 12-18 hours ahead of schedule, this stale cold could work! Another week of lost sleep incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 What's that big L up near MI? Where's my doggone high pressure?! edit: the L is near IL. But whatever. An L's an L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 On 12/10/2017 at 5:45 PM, mackerel_sky said: The lack of cold was based on my local forecast that has a high of 55 and 60 for next Sat/Sun, and local AFD saying next weekend temps were at normal! If we sped this up to Thursday, we could be golden Expand But this storm is moving through on Friday... two days after we have highs struggling to get above freezing and very COLD, DRY air in place. CAD may very well setup with the type of airmass in place AND the track is favorable to keep that cold in place. Many of our snowstorms here in Central and Eastern NC come from this classic Miller A setup. Lack of HP is the only thing missing but with the 50/50 low setting up and pressing down it should keep heights low enough along with the 500mb vort track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 On 12/10/2017 at 6:00 PM, snowlover91 said: But this storm is moving through on Friday... two days after we have highs struggling to get above freezing and very COLD, DRY air in place. CAD may very well setup with the type of airmass in place AND the track is favorable to keep that cold in place. Many of our snowstorms here in Central and Eastern NC come from this classic Miller A setup. Lack of HP is the only thing missing but with the 50/50 low setting up and pressing down it should keep heights low enough along with the 500mb vort track. Expand Good post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 On 12/10/2017 at 6:00 PM, snowlover91 said: But this storm is moving through on Friday... two days after we have highs struggling to get above freezing and very COLD, DRY air in place. CAD may very well setup with the type of airmass in place AND the track is favorable to keep that cold in place. Many of our snowstorms here in Central and Eastern NC come from this classic Miller A setup. Lack of HP is the only thing missing but with the 50/50 low setting up and pressing down it should keep heights low enough along with the 500mb vort track. Expand I'm all in! Gonna be slow at work, so I have time to track! Like I said, I'll try stale cold air, I havnt had luck with fresh cold air coming before the moisture! If it's cold and dry enough, could lock in an in-situ wedge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Holy cow at how good the UKMet looks. A few GFS Ens members have it...need more, but interesting to have the UKMet on it, probably my favorite model at the moment for SE winter threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 New Euro coming in looks improved with the storm. Has low in NE gulf moving across N FL. It's having trouble though getting precip back into the cold air which is to the NW across N GA and W NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 There's no real cold air to the NW of the storm, so it's a big rain event for everyone except possibly the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Who knows how the details shake out here, but the 500mb evolution is remarkably similar to this past storm......wave wash/repeat If you have NFL Sunday Ticket, it is absolutely pouring snow in Buffalo. Heaviest I've ever seen in an NFL game. Even more than the Philly game a couple of years ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 On 12/10/2017 at 6:29 PM, WidreMann said: There's no real cold air to the NW of the storm, so it's a big rain event for everyone except possibly the mountains. Expand We maybe could mix at the onset, but I don't see much of a shot for a snowstorm around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Maybe I notice it more because I follow the models a lot more, but it is so frustrating that it can be freezing cold and then when the precipitation gets here, it is just warm enough for a cold miserable rain. (Raleigh area) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 NAVGEM for our storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 On 12/10/2017 at 6:43 PM, snowlover91 said: NAVGEM for our storm. Expand NW Trend most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 Euro looks great...bring the heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 On 12/10/2017 at 5:45 PM, mackerel_sky said: The lack of cold was based on my local forecast that has a high of 55 and 60 for next Sat/Sun, and local AFD saying next weekend temps were at normal! If we sped this up to Thursday, we could be golden Expand Well I'm not very good at these maps but it looks like cold is a little deeper and east this map compared to last system. Interesting to see yet another possibility with no apparent high and several lows, and yes, a GL low. If there is a N Fla to off the Carolina coast track that should work for someone on the board. Trough also looks sharper verbatim, so need to watch s/w tilt and of course timing. As always, keep climo in mind; NW will almost be certain and cold will be a problem outside elevation. Thanks for input Grit. I'd be interested to hear thoughts from Lookout, Wow, and Burrell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 10, 2017 Share Posted December 10, 2017 That really isn't all that warm... 50s/60s.. The cold looks to come back after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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