snowlover91 Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 On 11/29/2017 at 3:03 PM, SnowNiner said: Good point. My point was simply though that it's not really crazy cold. It's getting us just marginally cold, in the ballpark of something to track. Yeah you're right! Oops, how many degrees difference is 6 C in Fahrenheit? Expand Keep in mind too that it’s an ensemble mean... at 240+ hours. It’s an average of both extremes on the warmer and colder side. Take a look at the Euro and GFS OP runs to get an idea of what type of potential is likely. We are looking at 10-20 degrees below normal if the EPS/Euro and GFS look verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 Allan's site has 2m temp dep in F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 On 11/29/2017 at 3:14 PM, AsheCounty48 said: I'll take it. Expand Not that cold, really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 On 11/29/2017 at 3:15 PM, mackerel_sky said: Not that cold, really Expand At hour 258, idc what the exact temps show, the pattern is there. That's what I want. (and, there are certain hours that look better than this particular shot, i'm just focusing on the 10th as being D-Day for winter.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 This got tweeted out...it has precip/temps/snow for the Euro/EPS. https://weather.us/forecast/4487042-raleigh/ensemble/euro/precipitation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 9-11 day temp anomalies from 00z GEFS top analogs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 One thing of note is that December is the second coldest month of the winter from a climo standpoint. So, below normal in early-mid Dec should have a little more bite compared to similar anomalies in, say, mid-late Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 On 11/29/2017 at 3:47 PM, griteater said: One thing of note is that December is the second coldest month of the winter from a climo standpoint. So, below normal in early-mid Dec should have a little more bite compared to similar anomalies in, say, mid-late Feb Expand ...and dare I say, favorable sun angles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 Impressive how much the modeled pattern has improved the past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 On 11/29/2017 at 3:17 PM, packbacker said: This got tweeted out...it has precip/temps/snow for the Euro/EPS. https://weather.us/forecast/4487042-raleigh/ensemble/euro/precipitation Expand Great, more info to look at! When will I ever pull away from this crap! That's nice, free info there. Times have changed from looking at the MRF on Unisys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 Have posted these before, but some ideas here on snow timing climo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 On 11/29/2017 at 3:03 PM, SnowNiner said: Good point. My point was simply though that it's not really crazy cold. It's getting us just marginally cold, in the ballpark of something to track. Yeah you're right! Oops, how many degrees difference is 6 C in Fahrenheit? Expand It's also an ensemble mean so if it has the correct idea it will trend colder as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 On 11/29/2017 at 3:09 PM, FallsLake said: ~11 ...I think Expand On 11/29/2017 at 3:09 PM, packbacker said: Little less then double for F, give or take. The EPS is really cold. Expand On 11/29/2017 at 3:11 PM, packbacker said: Allan's site has 2m temp dep in F. Expand On 11/29/2017 at 4:23 PM, franklin NCwx said: It's also an ensemble mean so if it has the correct idea it will trend colder as we get closer. Expand Thanks all for the clarifications. It seems like we're in the game more than I initially perceived. Let's see where she goes. ^^Grit's stats for CLT look interesting too. That's a nice jump that takes place in the amount of events after mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 I would love to see the frame after 384 on the 12z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 On 11/29/2017 at 3:52 PM, griteater said: Great, more info to look at! When will I ever pull away from this crap! That's nice, free info there. Times have changed from looking at the MRF on Unisys Expand Unisys is how I learned about p-types. As bad as the model data was.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CADEffect Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 On 11/29/2017 at 4:56 PM, NC_WX10 said: I would love to see the frame after 384 on the 12z gfs. Expand 18z will crash your dreams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 To soon to post snow maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 Inside 10 days, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 On 11/29/2017 at 7:04 PM, packbacker said: To soon to post snow maps? Expand What a thing of beauty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 Still going too...but just a little extreme on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 All of the models are locked in on building and maintaining a massive west coast ridge starting around Day 7. We didn't have a look this good on the models all of last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 Still snowing hard at 240.. Those accumulations aren't finished! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 Due to that being 10 days out, I can't get to excited about it, but I am excited about the pattern! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 ha the Euro with the perfect little lucky storm scenario in this pattern...Mack gets warm bubbled tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 On 11/29/2017 at 7:38 PM, griteater said: ha the Euro with the perfect little lucky storm scenario in this pattern...Mack gets warm bubbled tho Expand I can't even get a fantasy snow! That's how pathetic mby is! Pattern looks ok for a couple of below average days, no winter storms tho. By day 10, it'll probably be mid 60s in reality! I'm 56 degrees below avg with all my fantasy cold shots from this year already! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 On 11/29/2017 at 7:38 PM, griteater said: ha the Euro with the perfect little lucky storm scenario in this pattern...Mack gets warm bubbled tho Expand ALWAYS fear the warm nose; maybe Mack and I will get 4 inches of sleet again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 On 11/29/2017 at 7:19 PM, BornAgain13 said: Still snowing hard at 240.. Those accumulations aren't finished! Expand They're finished for Pack and me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 On 11/29/2017 at 4:57 PM, Queencitywx said: Unisys is how I learned about p-types. As bad as the model data was.. Expand Yep..sure makes me feel old thinking about how long ago that was. As for the up coming cold...shame there won't be more snow cover in the plains. Still very impressive pattern though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 On 11/29/2017 at 7:56 PM, Cold Rain said: They're finished for Pack and me! Expand Your post and the fact that packbacker liked your post has me actually laughing out loud. The control run has a similar type storm a few days later...6-12 inches of white stuff in the mtns...lighter accums east of there to I-85 in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.