FLweather Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 On 11/27/2017 at 5:01 PM, griteater said: Extended GFS is pretty much how you would draw up an ideal SE winter storm at 500mb. Subtropical jet wave undercutting a western ridge and plowing into California, then staying suppressed into the SE due to a heavy block. It looks like an El Nino pattern really. Expand Honestly I agree. MJO still forecasted to go 3 even though clearly 4. It shall cycle through 4-7/8 in a El nino pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 On 11/27/2017 at 4:45 PM, Cold Rain said: Get the shorts ready! Expand I've got two pallets of pre emergeant!! Locked and loaded! Where's big Frosty?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 On 11/27/2017 at 5:04 PM, griteater said: Yeah, the AO and NAO can't be too negative for us in my view. In the Pacific, I like the mean ridging to be in between the PNA and EPO....so, best to have it in Eastern Alaska and NW Canada Expand Here's the h500 and surface at 348. It's a really nice pattern, as you said: Would be nice to have that big HP closer in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 I guess beggars can't be choosers, but that is the tiniest pocket of cold on the planet!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 Nice. Move this forward into January and I'd be excited (although it's a bit of a east based -NAO right?). Not expecting winter weather at all in December for CLT. At least it's looking to feel Decemberry, and not Septemberry. Hopefully this carries over into January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 On 11/27/2017 at 6:12 PM, SnowNiner said: Nice. Move this forward into January and I'd be excited (although it's a bit of a east based -NAO right?). Not expecting winter weather at all in December for CLT. At least it's looking to feel Decemberry, and not Septemberry. Hopefully this carries over into January. Expand As we all know magic can happen in December. This upcoming pattern could produce. 2010 proved that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 On 11/27/2017 at 6:16 PM, FallsLake said: As we all know magic can happen in December. This upcoming pattern could produce. 2010 proved that.. Expand Sure looks more positive than not right now heading into December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 On 11/27/2017 at 6:16 PM, FallsLake said: As we all know magic can happen in December. This upcoming pattern could produce. 2010 proved that.. Expand Yeah, it can happen just not expecting it. December 2010, I guess you're referencing the Christmas storm? That was late December and CLT kinda got a sloppy mess. It was great for the mountains and just east of CLT though. Point taken, it can happen. My personal experience at my location has been very few and far between. I think the December 2002 ice storm was the last significant winter weather I've had in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 On 11/27/2017 at 4:23 PM, FLweather said: Good post. More along the lines of Goldy locks and 3 bears. Expand So Locks was her last name. Who knew? Goldy Locks. Was she Jewish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 Nothing like giving the arctic a couple good wedgies in just the right places Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 On 11/27/2017 at 6:26 PM, SnowNiner said: Yeah, it can happen just not expecting it. December 2010, I guess you're referencing the Christmas storm? That was late December and CLT kinda got a sloppy mess. It was great for the mountains and just east of CLT though. Point taken, it can happen. My personal experience at my location has been very few and far between. I think the December 2002 ice storm was the last significant winter weather I've had in December. Expand I got a little luckier in MBY. Had a few inches of snow in early December, a light icing event in mid December, and then the X-Mas storm. Maybe we can get a storm that affects more on this board. https://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/winter_wx/database.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 On 11/27/2017 at 6:12 PM, SnowNiner said: Nice. Move this forward into January and I'd be excited (although it's a bit of a east based -NAO right?). Not expecting winter weather at all in December for CLT. At least it's looking to feel Decemberry, and not Septemberry. Hopefully this carries over into January. Expand It does look a little east. Ideally it would be better more west. But that's a tall ridge ideally placed out west though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 When block is east of Greenland I consider that a e-NAO but beggars can't be choosers. Would prefer it closer to Hudson Bay though :-) The pattern preceding some of Raleigh's bigger winter events in past Nina's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 On 11/27/2017 at 7:14 PM, packbacker said: When block is east of Greenland I consider that a e-NAO but beggars can't be choosers. Would prefer it closer to Hudson Bay though :-) The pattern preceding some of Raleigh's bigger winter events in past Nina's. Expand What are the implications of that? You can clearly see the difference in the analog block you posted and the one proposed on the models. The snowy blocks were near Hudson Bay where the modeled is toward eastern Greenland. What's the overall benefit of the Hudson block versus what's modeled? Just continuing my education. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 On 11/27/2017 at 7:47 PM, SnowNiner said: What are the implications of that? You can clearly see the difference in the analog block you posted and the one proposed on the models. The snowy blocks were near Hudson Bay where the modeled is toward eastern Greenland. What's the overall benefit of the Hudson block versus what's modeled? Just continuing my education. Expand Core of cold is located further west...storm track further west too. I consider what the GEFS is showing more of a neutral NAO though. Below, core of cold is central/upper plains. Still a great pattern per the GEFS though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 GEFS moving towards more of a Nina pattern by day 15...still a great nina pattern but +PNA is gone by this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 For the 11-15 day average, the GFS Ens and Euro Ens are quite similar, but Euro has weaker -NAO block...and CMC Ens has weaker block than Euro Ens. SE is colder than normal on all 3. Max cold anomalies are to the west and northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 On 11/27/2017 at 8:28 PM, griteater said: For the 11-15 day average, the GFS Ens and Euro Ens are quite similar, but Euro has weaker -NAO block...and CMC Ens has weaker block than Euro Ens. SE is colder than normal on all 3. Max cold anomalies are to the west and northwest. Expand GEFS/EPS are moving towards what you called in your winter outlook though. Hopefully the Npac ridge is more east based and we can get a weak -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 Robert has a good post on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/WxSouth/ Quote Long story short, blocking up north, retrograding, and more Greenland Blocking is on the doorstep. This time, with the added benefit of a tall West Coast ridge that could ** thats a maybe ** unite with the overall blocking across the Pole. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 I’m looking forward to December’s upcoming rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 GFS really having a time with our mythical 10 day pattern change, a COMPLETELY different (and crap) look on 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 Good thing for ensembles, steady as she goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 On 11/28/2017 at 5:35 AM, Disco-lemonade said: Good thing for ensembles, steady as she goes Expand Indeed... that'll be the only way to go until models get a grip on this change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 6z GFS going back to the preferred method of reeling in the cutoff 50/50 low which pulls the blocking ridge back well into Greenland. 0z Euro and yesterday's 18z GFS dumped into the SW low which limits the blocking high's ability to move in. 0z GFS didn't know what to do and didn't dump into either of them. 6z GFS at 204: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 EPS losing the NAO...higher heights just east of NF. Getting that 2014 look though...which was probably my favorite winter since 2004. Not all bad.... Did we really think we wouldn't have to deal with a SER this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 Indexes don't look quite as good today...but still ok: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 ^^Like you said CR, still a good look. As in years past, it may take some time for the models to get a handle on the blocking; so swings of good and bad setups are to be expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 On 11/28/2017 at 1:49 PM, packbacker said: EPS losing the NAO...higher heights just east of NF. Getting that 2014 look though...which was probably my favorite winter since 2004. Not all bad.... Did we really think we wouldn't have to deal with a SER this winter. Expand Agreed, higher heights seem to get further and further east everyday. Boo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 On 11/28/2017 at 3:48 PM, SnowNiner said: Agreed, higher heights seem to get further and further east everyday. Boo. Expand Hopefully the Pac is modeled correct with the stout -AO. If the PV lobe drops in where the GEFS/EPS show it that could result in quite the suppressed storm track like ‘14. And now that I jinxed us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 2014 winter sucked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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