mackerel_sky Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 It'll make it's own cold air! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 On 11/14/2017 at 8:30 PM, mackerel_sky said: It'll make it's own cold air! Expand I think you meant: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 18z GFS develops the Davis Strait block this Saturday and holds it there for 10 days. Neat. Would like to see that reemerge in the heart of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 Pattern locked and loaded for a November. Bodes well for DJF based on the odds. 18z GFS is a cold turkey day.. not getting out of the 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 On 11/14/2017 at 11:39 PM, Wow said: Pattern locked and loaded for a November. Bodes well for DJF based on the odds. 18z GFS is a cold turkey day.. not getting out of the 30s. Expand And nice gulf low coming out on Fri/Sat after, on Euro. Sure cold will be long gone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 Today's 12z Euro run was interesting.... but we know that far out, the models will continue to flip flop. It's good to be back to talk winter weather with y'all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 More Fantasy Snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 On 11/15/2017 at 1:18 PM, NCSNOW said: More Fantasy Snow: Expand Just tells us that we're in a good pattern that could produce a storm. It's all we can ask for at this time. Then if something shows under day 7, we can start focusing on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 PNA now looks to go positive in the LR AO dives strongly negative and then stays at least slightly negative in the LR NAO dives moderately/strongly negative and then averages negative in the LR So in the LR we could be looking at a slightly positive PNA, slightly negative AO & NAO. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 On 11/15/2017 at 1:52 PM, FallsLake said: PNA now looks to go positive in the LR AO dives strongly negative and then stays at least slightly negative in the LR NAO dives moderately/strongly negative and then averages negative in the LR So in the LR we could be looking at a slightly positive PNA, slightly negative AO & NAO. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Expand I'm waiting on @Cold Rain 's graph to make it official. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 On 11/15/2017 at 1:52 PM, FallsLake said: PNA now looks to go positive in the LR AO dives strongly negative and then stays at least slightly negative in the LR NAO dives moderately/strongly negative and then averages negative in the LR So in the LR we could be looking at a slightly positive PNA, slightly negative AO & NAO. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Expand Man that sounds wonderful for us winter lovers. Hopefully we get some action end of the month or early December! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 On 11/15/2017 at 3:58 PM, oconeexman said: Man that sounds wonderful for us winter lovers. Hopefully we get some action end of the month or early December! Expand Telling y'all, a Dec 2002 redux , and I'm good for next two winters!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 12z GFS is different, ha. Stronger ridging into AK next week. Drops major cold into the northern plains on Thanksgiving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 On 11/15/2017 at 4:31 PM, griteater said: 12z GFS is different, ha. Stronger ridging into AK next week. Drops major cold into the northern plains on Thanksgiving Expand Yep, and wouldn't this be wild; snow in Houston: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 On 11/15/2017 at 4:31 PM, griteater said: 12z GFS is different, ha. Stronger ridging into AK next week. Drops major cold into the northern plains on Thanksgiving Expand And loses the blocking after Thanksgiving. Ruhroh. It's ok, come back January 1 and we're cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 On 11/15/2017 at 4:45 PM, FallsLake said: Yep, and wouldn't this be wild; snow in Houston: Expand That's a more believable cold trajectory! We suck at cold and snow! Nice one or two day cold shot, then warn up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 On 11/15/2017 at 4:50 PM, mackerel_sky said: That's a more believable cold trajectory! We suck at cold and snow! Nice one or two day cold shot, then warn up! Expand The old reliable south and east trend will save the day..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 On 11/15/2017 at 4:46 PM, SnowNiner said: And loses the blocking after Thanksgiving. Ruhroh. It's ok, come back January 1 and we're cool. Expand The models are jumping around (more than normal). It seems in years past we would see this more when blocking was setting up. Looking (for fun) at day 16 of the 12z GFS, it does show another dump of cold air into the US; heading towards the east. So basically the important thing is most of the model runs continue to show cold air pushes into the US even though their details are jumping radically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 The GFS Ensembles continue to look chilly next week! Dont look at the OP run as much as the Ensembles at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 On 11/15/2017 at 3:14 PM, No snow for you said: I'm waiting on @Cold Rain 's graph to make it official. Expand I'll have to hook that up next week when I'm back at work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 Crickets up in this piece after the Euro! What a dumpster fire! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 On 11/15/2017 at 8:05 PM, mackerel_sky said: Crickets up in this piece after the Euro! What a dumpster fire! Expand Lol yeah the Euro is not trending in the right direction. Shoot both the Euro and the GFS look warm for a great outdoors Thanksgiving. Still over a week away though. A lot to iron out but yeah the Euro looks like much of the lower 48 will be warm for Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 Not really.... look at the Euro and GFS Ensembles.... Still painting a chilly Thanksgiving! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 IMO, things are looking good in general heading in to winter. We are already starting out much "blockier" in the high latitudes compared to last year. If that trend carries throughout the winter we should have plenty of chances to score, and quite frankly, I feel as though we are due for a winter with more blocking. Seems like we are on a record setting streak for non-blocky winters ever since the 2010/2011 winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 On 11/15/2017 at 9:22 PM, burrel2 said: IMO, things are looking good in general heading in to winter. We are already starting out much "blockier" in the high latitudes compared to last year. If that trend carries throughout the winter we should have plenty of chances to score, and quite frankly, I feel as though we are due for a winter with more blocking. Seems like we are on a record setting streak for non-blocky winters ever since the 2010/2011 winter. Expand Hopefully the blocking actually takes hold this year and it's not false. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 GSP going with 4 or 5 degrees below normal on Thanksgiving! Brutal, just brutal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 Big Greenland block on 18z. Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 On 11/15/2017 at 10:25 PM, griteater said: Big Greenland block on 18z. Nice Expand I'm getting whiplash from these runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 The -NAO is consistent on the models.. Outside of that it's a big bowl-full of "I don't know." Beyond 5 days, it's a crap shoot. The upper flow is going to be knotted up with significant polar blocking. Based on history, we're looking for some good times ahead. It's been a few years since we've seen this kind of look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 On 11/16/2017 at 12:04 AM, Wow said: The -NAO is consistent on the models.. Outside of that it's a big bowl-full of "I don't know." Beyond 5 days, it's a crap shoot. The upper flow is going to be knotted up with significant polar blocking. Based on history, we're looking for some good times ahead. It's been a few years since we've seen this kind of look. Expand -NAO is going to be Key. We haven't gotten that since 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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