WidreMann Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 On 9/25/2017 at 11:01 PM, franklin NCwx said: Lol...cfs Expand The CFS got the La Nina before most other models picked up on it. It's also been decent in forecasting the next month's temps, though still a little on the cooler side than what verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 Atleast we don't have to worry about October cold or snow screwing up winter!? October looking torchy after about a 3 day cool shot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 On 9/26/2017 at 1:15 AM, mackerel_sky said: Atleast we don't have to worry about October cold or snow screwing up winter!? October looking torchy after about a 3 day cool shot! Expand October cold is ok but November cold is bad. And of course we have the curse of the Halloween storm to worry about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 On 9/26/2017 at 1:19 AM, FallsLake said: October cold is ok but November cold is bad. And of course we have the curse of the Halloween storm to worry about. Expand We didn't have a Halloween storm last year and we still got cursed! Pack always says the CFS is good within about 3 days or so of the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 On 9/26/2017 at 1:29 AM, Cold Rain said: We didn't have a Halloween storm last year and we still got cursed! Pack always says the CFS is good within about 3 days or so of the end of the month. Expand No,no,no CR. A Halloween storm dooms us to a bad winter. If there's no storm, still no guarantees... Just adding to the SE folklore.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 On 9/26/2017 at 10:05 AM, FallsLake said: No,no,no CR. A Halloween storm dooms us to a bad winter. If there's no storm, still no guarantees... Just adding to the SE folklore.. Expand Haha I know man. The FallsLake Halloween Storm Index...has a nice ring to it! We need to define the scale, though. How about this: > 1 = Screwed. < 1 = Probably screwed. How are the persimmon seeds looking this year? Hearing mixed signals with the wholly worms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 The 1st day of October should truly feel like Fall (dew points in the 30s!!!!): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 On 9/26/2017 at 3:19 PM, Cold Rain said: Haha I know man. The FallsLake Halloween Storm Index...has a nice ring to it! We need to define the scale, though. How about this: > 1 = Screwed. < 1 = Probably screwed. How are the persimmon seeds looking this year? Hearing mixed signals with the wholly worms. Expand Hopefully the Halloween storm doesn't wash the wholly worms away...or would that be a good thing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 This is depressing if it plays out. Today's 12z GFS... 16 day TOTAL PRECIP: 0.02 " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 This is the Shet pattern right here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avalanche Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 We need rain in nc. That's why I was wishing the TS would come west while everyone else was wanting it it's. Already in a moderate drought heading into the dry season!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avalanche Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 It's, out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 On 9/26/2017 at 6:57 PM, griteater said: This is the Shet pattern right here Expand Double barrel 588's. Let's roll.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 On 9/26/2017 at 7:25 PM, avalanche said: We need rain in nc. That's why I was wishing the TS would come west while everyone else was wanting it it's. Already in a moderate drought heading into the dry season!! Expand The one good thing about this (short or long term) drought, is it comes after a relatively wet summer. Most of the agricultural interest are fine at this point. Now if this is a long term drought, we'll have significant issues come next growing season. **worse droughts occur after a dry winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 On 9/26/2017 at 7:47 PM, tnweathernut said: Double barrel 588's. Let's roll.............. Expand That's the Dec-Feb pattern for this winter! Book it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 The beat (...heat) goes on. 12z Euro 850 temp anomalies at day 10 (after the upcoming short cool down): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 27, 2017 Share Posted September 27, 2017 Let this pattern persist until November 30th. That would be just fine with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 27, 2017 Share Posted September 27, 2017 Mount Agung may erupt any day now. Pretty strong consensus that global temps will dip a bit in the following year to year and a half due to the eruption. How much depends on how big the probable eruption will be. Exciting and dangerous times!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 27, 2017 Share Posted September 27, 2017 On 9/26/2017 at 8:57 PM, FallsLake said: The beat (...heat) goes on. 12z Euro 850 temp anomalies at day 10 (after the upcoming short cool down): Expand This looks like one of those winter maps Pack likes to post! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 27, 2017 Share Posted September 27, 2017 On 9/27/2017 at 2:15 PM, mackerel_sky said: This looks like one of those winter maps Pack likes to post! Expand Yep...winter preview with 2016-17 repeat coming. Need to start stocking up on the pre-emergent now. Avg high in early Oct is usually mid 70's...going to be see some mid/high 80's it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 27, 2017 Share Posted September 27, 2017 On 9/27/2017 at 2:26 PM, packbacker said: Yep...winter preview with 2016-17 repeat coming. Need to start stocking up on the pre-emergent now. Avg high in early Oct is usually mid 70's...going to be see some mid/high 80's it looks like. Expand As long as the whole Eastcoast torches! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 27, 2017 Share Posted September 27, 2017 PNA may touch the bottom of the chart (-4) in the coming days. I really hope we don't see this in the winter months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 27, 2017 Share Posted September 27, 2017 On 9/27/2017 at 4:04 PM, FallsLake said: PNA may touch the bottom of the chart (-4) in the coming days. I really hope we don't see this in the winter months. Expand PDO looks to be negative...things may get warm this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpbart Posted September 27, 2017 Share Posted September 27, 2017 On 9/27/2017 at 2:00 PM, LithiaWx said: Mount Agung may erupt any day now. Pretty strong consensus that global temps will dip a bit in the following year to year and a half due to the eruption. How much depends on how big the probable eruption will be. Exciting and dangerous times!! Expand It would have to be a pretty catastrophic eruption to do much to global climate overall. A basaltic andesite volcano is slightly less likely to produce the high ash clouds in the kind of volume needed to effect climate. There is always a fair bit of uncertainty with these things so who knows? Still a really large eruption is never likely overall, thankfully those tend to be rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 27, 2017 Share Posted September 27, 2017 On 9/27/2017 at 4:24 PM, packbacker said: PDO looks to be negative...things may get warm this winter. Expand Lets just hope things swing in our favor by December. For the past few years, we've been lucky to at least have the PNA on our side. Just eyeballing it and I can see a lot of bad winters in the negative column: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted September 27, 2017 Share Posted September 27, 2017 On 9/27/2017 at 5:18 PM, jpbart said: It would have to be a pretty catastrophic eruption to do much to global climate overall. A basaltic andesite volcano is slightly less likely to produce the high ash clouds in the kind of volume needed to effect climate. There is always a fair bit of uncertainty with these things so who knows? Still a really large eruption is never likely overall, thankfully those tend to be rare. Expand Yeah, we would need a Krakatoa sized eruption to really effect the climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 27, 2017 Share Posted September 27, 2017 On 9/27/2017 at 5:36 PM, FallsLake said: Lets just hope things swing in our favor by December. For the past few years, we've been lucky to at least have the PNA on our side. Just eyeballing it and I can see a lot of bad winters in the negative column: Expand PDO is over rated...lates 50’s to the 80’s was predominantly negative and that our highest snowfall average ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 27, 2017 Share Posted September 27, 2017 You know things are bleak when we are hoping volcanic eruptions lowers global temps. Though I hope it doesn’t erupt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 27, 2017 Share Posted September 27, 2017 .1-.4C is the number I keep hearing. Agung is capable of VEI 6. That’s plenty big enough to lower the globl temps. The last eruption of Agung in the 60s was a VEI 5. Again big enough to lower global temps a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 27, 2017 Share Posted September 27, 2017 On 9/27/2017 at 6:34 PM, packbacker said: You know things are bleak when we are hoping volcanic eruptions lowers global temps. Though I hope it doesn’t erupt. Expand Haha that is so true. If we could just get one good deep impact from a giant asteroid....! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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