FallsLake Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 On 3/8/2017 at 2:37 PM, mackerel_sky said: Your too far North, so you don't have to worry about mixing issues!? Expand Lol..If I was in central Virginia I would worry about mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 12z nam just not cold enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 On 3/8/2017 at 2:45 PM, Mrwolf1972 said: 12z nam Expand Looks better. I also noticed at hour 66 the dew points were colder/dryer with the southward push. Puts upstate SC into the 20s whereas they were in the low/mid 30s at the same time on 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 On 3/8/2017 at 2:48 PM, FallsLake said: Looks better. I also noticed at hour 66 the dew points were colder/dryer with the southward push. Puts upstate SC into the 20s whereas they were in the low/mid 30s at the same time on 6z. Expand with these dew points the temp should drop fast with moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Yep at hour 78 the NAM is closer to the 6z GFS with dew points. Solidly in the teens across NC. Also as Mrwolf showed the winter precip line for the storm to our west is south of the 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Need to be looking at wetbulbs, not dewpoints. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 On 3/8/2017 at 2:52 PM, Mrwolf1972 said: with these dew points the temp should drop fast with moisture. Expand That wedge sig, is sick!! May end up with a Lookout special down here! 2014 style! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 One thing to note: the NAM now shows the snow/rain line cutting (halfway north to south) through Tenn, as the 6z GFS; but the storm is considerably weaker. Again, not sure if it would develop quicker as it moves east or is this a sign of lesser totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 On 3/8/2017 at 3:00 PM, FallsLake said: One thing to note: the NAM now shows the snow/rain line cutting (halfway north to south) through Tenn, as the 6z GFS; but the storm is considerably weaker. Again, not sure if it would develop quicker as it moves east or is this a sign of lesser totals. Expand Remember during the January storm though each run of the NAM came in more and more amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Snow wise it's not bad (out to hour 84). You could even argue it's better than the GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 On 3/8/2017 at 3:06 PM, Cary_Snow95 said: Remember during the January storm though each run of the NAM came in more and more amped Expand True, and it kept amping until it started showing the warm nose; hopefully we don't see it do that this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Really to bad this wasn't a month ago....both the GEPS/EPS agree on solid temp departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 On 3/8/2017 at 3:24 PM, packbacker said: Really to bad this wasn't a month ago....both the GEPS/EPS agree on solid temp departures. Expand Yes to this. lol, it seems like this happens every year. Sometime in March we get a system come in with some "March cold" that delivers frozen precip to the VA line to north of I-40. Just to troll the rest of the SE. Whatevs. Best case scenario is a couple wet inches that accumulates on the grass and melts completely when the sun comes up north of I-40. At this point I'd rather it just turn nice and warm. Wishing Winston Salem and north the best, enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Why isnt there a thread for this specific storm ? We are 4 days away.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 On 3/8/2017 at 3:40 PM, Snowless in Carrollton said: Why isnt there a thread for this specific storm ? We are 4 days away.... Expand Probably because it's March and no one wants to be the guy that goes all-in first on a winter storm I think if 12z guidance is promising someone will jump and start it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Through hr 48 the HP in Canada is stronger and moving down more.. colder look. Maybe promising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 On 3/8/2017 at 3:47 PM, ajr said: Through hr 48 the HP in Canada is stronger and moving down more.. colder look. Maybe promising Expand 1049 hp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
27596WXNUT Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 On 3/8/2017 at 3:40 PM, Snowless in Carrollton said: Why isnt there a thread for this specific storm ? We are 4 days away.... Expand I think we should wait until the energy is onshore tomorrow for better sampling before getting toooo hyped or starting a thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 def colder thru 78 in nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Should be a decent run. A little more cold press thru the NE and mid atlantic (initial Friday way was sharper)...taller ridge out west behind the wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 On 3/8/2017 at 3:57 PM, DopplerWx said: def colder thru 78 in nc. Expand Single digit dew points near/at RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 gfs coming south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 That's a nice looking wedge in place right before precipitation comes in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 GFS at 84 hours now is a tad further south overall than 0Z was at 96 hours. Looks like a Murphy to Manteo run coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 It's a weak overrunning event...colder this run. Better solution would for the wave to be a little sharper and farther south (of course). Let's see what the UKMet has Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 LOL...< 1" at RDU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 On 3/8/2017 at 4:08 PM, FallsLake said: LOL...< 1" at RDU Expand Because it was south and suppressed. Is there a better spot to be in at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 On 3/8/2017 at 4:08 PM, FallsLake said: LOL...< 1" at RDU Expand you obviously didn't run the kuchera, cobb, or mack methods lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 GFS is much drier this time around. Looks colder, but less robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 On 3/8/2017 at 4:10 PM, griteater said: you obviously didn't run the kuchera, cobb, or mack methods lol Expand Yep, at this point we need to start talking about why we'll get higher snow ratios. But here is the Kuchera: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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