packbacker Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Euro and GFS aren't messing around with the MJO, deep phase 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 On 1/31/2017 at 3:45 PM, packbacker said: Euro and GFS aren't messing around with the MJO, deep phase 8. Expand Is that good for snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 On 1/31/2017 at 3:45 PM, BornAgain13 said: Is that good for snow? Expand Phase 8 is typically a cold signal in the east for Feb. For snow we need a little luck too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 On 1/31/2017 at 3:45 PM, BornAgain13 said: Is that good for snow? Expand On 12/9/2011 at 2:10 PM, Metsfan said: Can someone explain why we need a phase 8 of the MJO Short explanation: "Phase 8 teleconnects to a ridge over the Rockies, which given the usual wavelengths, provides a storm track up the Eastern Seaboard and enhances the chances of a major EC snowstorm." from the MJO thread Pack is correct on the luck thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 On 1/31/2017 at 3:52 PM, frazdaddy said: Short explanation: "Phase 8 teleconnects to a ridge over the Rockies, which given the usual wavelengths, provides a storm track up the Eastern Seaboard and enhances the chances of a major EC snowstorm." from the MJO thread Pack is correct on the luck thing. Expand Thats so weird though that the models are the complete opposite of what the MJO is implying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 The day 3 deal wants to spread a little snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 12z GFS is continuing to show a little snow for N. NC this Friday. Of course I'm right on the line of getting snow or rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Snow map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 A 50/50 like that couple with the big AK block is usually a good precursor for winter events...to bad so much troughing in the west though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Indices looking a little better today: PNA - Looks to basically stay positive in the short term and then go strongly positive (+1) in the LR AO - Looks to go strongly negative in the LR NAO - Goes strongly positive in mid range and could head for neutral in LR Could see the LR models show more cold in upcoming runs. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 I think the main problem is we're going to lose the -EPO. Instead of ridging near Alaska we've got a big ole vortex/low that is just going to have a counter clockwise spin and pump in pacific air into the conus. So even if we get a trough in the east, the air is just not very cold and I don't think it's going to work for us. It's ironic because when Alaska goes blue, we finally start getting a -AO and maybe a bit of -NAO, but it's blocking cool air instead of cold IMO. Winter is over if we can't lose the blue over Alaska/SW canada IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 On 1/31/2017 at 4:27 PM, Cold Rain said: Expand Now post the map from hour 228+. Models still have a lot of work to do for this period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 On 1/31/2017 at 4:41 PM, Jon said: Now post the map from hour 228+. Models still have a lot of work to do for this period. Expand That 9th storm is money! Backside flurries seems like a blizzard at this point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 On 1/31/2017 at 4:27 PM, Cold Rain said: Expand Wait , our winter is going to be Frontloaded, wait, I mean backloaded!? Well turns out to be just loaded, with crappy torch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 On 1/31/2017 at 4:41 PM, Jon said: Now post the map from hour 228+. Models still have a lot of work to do for this period. Expand It wasn't out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Take my word for it, extremely volitile solutions on modeling for Feb 8-10 we will get lucky I'm sure again with a fantasy snow, just depends on how the energy phases and what the lakes low ends up wanting to be (sub 1000 bomb or not, deep cold or not, etc) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 On 1/31/2017 at 4:50 PM, Cold Rain said: It wasn't out yet. Expand lol sorry thought you were Pack there for a second...kidding! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 On 1/31/2017 at 4:58 PM, Jon said: lol sorry thought you were Pack there for a second...kidding! Expand Haha I didn't say anything about preemergent! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 On 1/31/2017 at 4:45 PM, mackerel_sky said: That 9th storm is money! Backside flurries seems like a blizzard at this point! Expand Cmc is showing frigid temps in teens on the 9th with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 On 1/31/2017 at 5:06 PM, Mrwolf1972 said: Cmc is showing frigid temps in teens on the 9th with snow. Expand That's a big change.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 On 1/31/2017 at 5:06 PM, Mrwolf1972 said: Cmc is showing frigid temps in teens on the 9th with snow. Expand Interesting turn of events! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 On 1/31/2017 at 4:47 PM, mackerel_sky said: Wait , our winter is going to be Frontloaded, wait, I mean backloaded!? Well turns out to be just loaded, with crappy torch! Expand 2 days of sub temps at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 On 1/31/2017 at 5:06 PM, Mrwolf1972 said: Cmc is showing frigid temps in teens on the 9th with snow. Expand Huh? It's showing a huge frontal passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 On 1/31/2017 at 5:06 PM, Mrwolf1972 said: Cmc is showing frigid temps in teens on the 9th with snow. Expand Yeah, and that's not even with a snow pack. That's plain old arctic air. 14-15F in Raleigh. 15-16 N GA/SC. 31-32 central florida north.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 On 1/31/2017 at 5:10 PM, SnowNiner said: Huh? It's showing a huge frontal passage. Expand The temps drop drastically on the back so there will be some snow didn't say a blizzard but it's not a torch Still it's a start we have time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Too bad it's the CMC!? Didn't it have 50/60s yesterday for this timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 On 1/31/2017 at 5:18 PM, mackerel_sky said: Too bad it's the CMC!? Didn't it have 50/60s yesterday for this timeframe Expand 12z GFS showing highs below freezing in much of the SE Feb 11 and Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 On 1/31/2017 at 5:20 PM, Jon said: 12z GFS showing highs below freezing in much of the SE Feb 11 and Feb 12 Expand Too bad it's dry as a bone. Can't seem to get the cold and precip together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 On 1/31/2017 at 5:18 PM, mackerel_sky said: Too bad it's the CMC!? Didn't it have 50/60s yesterday for this timeframe Expand What a difference a day makes in the LR. Just goes to show you how volatile the pattern is. I still don't buy that double-low idea. I think it will be one system or there will be more separation of the two. Just seem wacky... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.