packbacker Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 On 1/29/2017 at 2:22 PM, cbmclean said: What in the heck? Wasn't it literally yesterday that we were saying the LR looked promising? Expand The ensemble mean is just a little different :-) The CFS is a big bummer if you want a cold Feb, it won't bust that bad, been fairly solid at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 I do hope someone gets some snow next weekend whether it's us, TN/KY or MA to NE. Signs are pointing to very warm back half of Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 If we need help in the pacific, because we know the blocking in the Atlantic isn't happening, and the pacific keeps screwing us, I think winter is over. JB said there isn't any cold in Canada ! So is it just going to materialize over us from nowhere? With these blistering sun angles!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 On 1/29/2017 at 2:31 PM, packbacker said: I do hope someone gets some snow next weekend whether it's us, TN/KY or MA to NE. Signs are pointing to very warm back half of Feb. Expand According to you, but not JB! End of Feb, is gonna be brutal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 On 1/29/2017 at 2:25 PM, packbacker said: The ensemble mean is just a little different :-) The CFS is a big bummer if you want a cold Feb, it won't bust that bad, been fairly solid at this range. GT Expand OK, I guess back to writing off the rest of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 The CFSv2 is actually really reliable the last run of the month, after that pick and choose which frame/run you want to compare to the verification, but it's almost always the last run or two for some reason. Lately, it's been the last run...and like CR said, it likely flips. BECAUSE we've seen so much flipping the last 10 days of the model, I expect some give in the way of backing down on the heat the last two days, I don't buy the run for today overall. If you want to see the CFSv2 predict a torchy pattern, look at Novembers forecast and how consistent it was. But here's how it worked out for the past 3 months: JAN: Dec 31 verified the best DEC: Nov 29 run busted horribly (way too hot, the equivalent of the latest run for Feb. Nov 30 (last run) was closest...but still busted over the MA and NE (too hot) NOV: Again, last run - October 31, verified best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Not buying in yet by any means, but about 20 of the EPS members at least have a little snow in north GA at about day 8. First sign of that in a long while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rowjimmy73 Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 On 1/29/2017 at 2:46 AM, pcbjr said: Actually - Comes a time when the blind man takes your hand Says, "Don't you see? Gotta make it somehow on the dreams you still believe Don't give it up, you got an empty cup... From day to day just letting it ride You get so far away from how it feels inside You can't let go 'cause you're afraid to fall But the day may come when you can't feel at all Comes a time when the blind man takes your hand Says, "Don't you see? Expand actually more apt..... Run me out in the cold rain and snow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Lol @ the clipper! Over performs on the GFS and its rain E of the mountains , even up to VA! Winter just keeps getting better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 On 1/29/2017 at 3:50 PM, mackerel_sky said: Lol @ the clipper! Over performs on the GFS and its rain E of the mountains , even up to VA! Winter just keeps getting better! Expand RGEM delivers for the MA crew. Good to see it can snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 On 1/29/2017 at 4:03 PM, packbacker said: RGEM delivers for the MA crew. Good to see it can snow... Expand I'm glad to see them get some snow. Looks like they may get a bigger one over the next two weeks. However, I imagine the immediate coast and D.C. may have a tough time not mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 I think this GFS run is heading for disaster! That big storm right off the west coast on the 2nd/3rd, can't be good!? Hope I'm wrong, ready to have something to track this week!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 On 1/29/2017 at 4:07 PM, mackerel_sky said: I think this GFS run is heading for disaster! That big storm right off the west coast on the 2nd/3rd, can't be good!? Hope I'm wrong, ready to have something to track this week!? Expand its slower then past models and I believe that's the LP we been seeing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 it don't come on shore till Friday night there is also a LP down by mexico Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 On 1/29/2017 at 3:24 PM, rowjimmy73 said: actually more apt..... Run me out in the cold rain and snow.... Expand Both are correct - mine had more to do with model watching LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 On 1/29/2017 at 4:07 PM, mackerel_sky said: I think this GFS run is heading for disaster! That big storm right off the west coast on the 2nd/3rd, can't be good!? Hope I'm wrong, ready to have something to track this week!? Expand Some good...some bad on the GFS. I like how the AK ridge is nosing in to the east, but need the PV lobe further east towards Maine. Maybe it shifts SE after day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 On 1/29/2017 at 4:14 PM, packbacker said: Some good...some bad on the GFS. I like how the AK ridge is nosing in to the east, but need the PV lobe further east towards Maine. Maybe it shifts SE after day 5. Expand It looks like it's trying to do that in the last frame or two in your post! Looks like a general SE press, ever so slightly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Nice little weak wave day 5 with a 1040h pressing down. Cold rain though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 On 1/29/2017 at 4:17 PM, packbacker said: Nice little weak wave day 5 with a 1040h pressing down. Cold rain though... Expand Yep and it weakens to 1037 the next frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 On 1/29/2017 at 4:18 PM, Mrwolf1972 said: Expand Wedge trying to show up! Atleast it's not like the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Cutter on this run I believe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 On 1/29/2017 at 4:19 PM, mackerel_sky said: Wedge trying to show up! Atleast it's not like the Euro Expand the HP is further south then last gfs run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 HP moved to quick its headed to ohio again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 On 1/29/2017 at 4:20 PM, packfan98 said: Cutter on this run I believe... Expand Yep! High moved out at light speed! Looks like CMC ! Winters over! Congrats MA! And they might even need help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 On 1/29/2017 at 4:23 PM, mackerel_sky said: Yep! High moved out at light speed! Looks like CMC ! Winters over! Expand cmc is running now we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 The 50/50 is a nice spot, PNA ridge is popping but the the low west of HB is a killer, shuts off cold air, invites cutter and doesn't allow a sprawling HP. We need the whole PV lobe over in SE Canada, we can't have that piece in central Canada, well I guess it could be down in the lakes as an alternative but it's not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 GFS is not even really a storm at this point... Looks like a glorified cold frontal passage after 174. The northern shortwave takes over after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 UK day 6, much flatter, no PNA ridge, weak low over the panhandle, would think this would just keep trucking east. But, not sure how much cold air is around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Always a good cold signal when the PV expands from Maine to AK. The warmth cometh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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