SnowNiner Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 What kind of weird snow and sleet map is that? The snow line is not running horizontal it's all kinds of weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Terrible low track up through the coastal plain. Rain for RDU with that track. Either the wedging is wrong or the track is wrong. Happy Hour! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 On 1/27/2017 at 11:07 PM, Cold Rain said: Terrible low track up through the coastal plain. Rain for RDU with that track. Either the wedging is wrong or the track is wrong. Happy Hour! Expand It's showing a very cold initial air mass. Dew points in the single digits before the storm comes in; but your right not the optimal track for us in central NC. Of course if this storm does pan out, the upcoming days of model runs will have all kinds of swings in the depicted outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Gefs is showing the storm to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 18z GEFS pushed all in with packbacker! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 European Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 On 1/27/2017 at 11:23 PM, FallsLake said: It's showing a very cold initial air mass. Dew points in the single digits before the storm comes in; but your right not the optimal track for us in central NC. Of course if this storm does pan out, the upcoming days of model runs will have all kinds of swings in the depicted outcome. Expand Yeah man, something will be quite a bit different than currently depicted when the time comes. My guess is that if the wedge is that strong, the track won't look like that. I should also say that it's cool to see a fantasy storm show up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 To cut or not to cut? That is the question . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 This gfs seems a bit wonky but nice to see the models glomming onto something out there now. A little bait to keep everybody interested in the 0z's tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 On 1/27/2017 at 10:42 PM, packbacker said: LOL...I am sucker for a 18z GFS snowmap. Triple phaser potential. Expand Got the Euro and GFS on board! Bring it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 We need to see this storm tracking through Southern Florida on the models over the next few days to have any chance of keeping it south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 On 1/28/2017 at 12:32 AM, burrel2 said: We need to see this storm tracking through Southern Florida on the models over the next few days to have any chance of keeping it south. Expand Not a chance but for now I'd actually prefer right north of Cuba, for tracking purposes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 So what's making the difference with the GFS? The PNA ridge is building in faster and keeps heights low over SE Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 On 1/27/2017 at 10:34 PM, griteater said: We've gone from canceling the rest of this winter and all of next winter to tracking a new storm in all of 1 day Expand lol, thats what happens in the Southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 On 1/28/2017 at 12:37 AM, pcbjr said: Not a chance but for now I'd actually prefer right north of Cuba, for tracking purposes Expand I prefer Jamaica Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 On 1/28/2017 at 12:52 AM, shahroz98 said: lol, thats what happens in the Southeast Expand It'll be back to winter cancel tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 On 1/28/2017 at 12:54 AM, mackerel_sky said: It'll be back to winter cancel tomorrow! Expand I would hope not. It seems that Feb could be pretty active Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 18z from 2 days ago v/s today for day 8. PNA ridge and Scand. ridge nosing into Greenland todays run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 EPS comparison...5 day period ending on Feb 9th from 2 days ago vs today's run. 2 days ago it had trough in west and ridge in east, today's run (days 8-13) has ridge in west and trough in east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Looks like the models are starting to show potential for February. The GFS did a good job with the general idea of the last storm and started picking it up 10 to 14 days out. Good to see a possible threat show up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 On 1/28/2017 at 2:31 AM, Brick Tamland said: Looks like the models are starting to show potential for February. The GFS did a good job with the general idea of the last storm and started picking it up 10 to 14 days out. Good to see a possible threat show up again. Expand Quit loafing around on the 'net and get back to your job! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 On 1/27/2017 at 11:07 PM, Cold Rain said: Terrible low track up through the coastal plain. Rain for RDU with that track. Either the wedging is wrong or the track is wrong. Happy Hour! Expand Right! Move that freezing line about 75 - 100 miles NW of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 It is quite impressive how much the models changed with the West coast ridge in 24 hours. From being almost non existent to nearly bridging with that Bering sea block. That is what is knocking the cold air downhill to the SE. We need to see that persist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Thats why anything beyond 8-10 on thr models is complete fantasy (or nightmare). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 On 1/28/2017 at 3:52 AM, Wow said: Thats why anything beyond 8-10 on thr models is complete fantasy (or nightmare). Expand As Robert pointed out earlier, the last winter storm was picked up more or less at 10-11 days out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Any updates on the 0z gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 On 1/28/2017 at 4:00 AM, CaryWx said: Any updates on the 0z gfs? Expand Clipper looks like a dud, outside of high mountains in NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Is it out to 228 or so yet? Never had much faith in the clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 On 1/28/2017 at 4:09 AM, CaryWx said: Is it out to 228 or so yet? Never had much faith in the clipper Expand The clipper look turned poor on the modeling....Euro pretty much won out there Out to 150 on GFS....the PV and associated trough into New England are farther east this run....I suspect the GFS will move north with the storm this run...we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 On 1/28/2017 at 4:09 AM, CaryWx said: Is it out to 228 or so yet? Never had much faith in the clipper Expand If I had to guess this run will be similar but north. Same dynamics but trop pv looks a little north of 18z so far at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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