pcbjr Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 On 1/26/2017 at 1:17 AM, Jon said: CFS doing CFS things again, expect colder run on monthly website tomorrow morning. Expand Hey Jon! It's about all we have to hang on to lol Phil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 Typical CFS. Flips cold with 10 days to go until the last 3 or 4 days of the month and then flips warm for the big finish. Don't get me wrong, Jon. I like the image and appreciate you posting it. But I'll be surprised if you're able to post a similar image on 1/31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 WRAL has me back to 62 for a high on Feb 1st. So much for the big (no so much) cold shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 Jan has been +6 to +12F across the SE. Feb probably won't finish that warm. I don't think... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 Good news is this Jan wasn't even close to as bad as 2006 for conus torch. 2006 was RDU's last winter that was snowless even with Feb solidly BN in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 On 1/26/2017 at 1:58 AM, packbacker said: Jan has been +6 to +12F across the SE. Feb probably won't finish that warm. I don't think... Expand Goodness, that map looks almost identical to December 2015 in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 On 1/26/2017 at 2:03 AM, packbacker said: Good news is this Jan wasn't even close to as bad as 2006 for conus torch. 2006 was RDU's last winter that was snowless even with Feb solidly BN in the SE. Expand good news for conus, not so good news for SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 If it is any consolation to you all...WT360 has joined the Weatherbell train and thinks March will be much colder/wetter in much of the South than last year. Some snow into NC/VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 GFS squeezes out a few flakes for the clipper again, trough a little more west and stout on 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 On 1/26/2017 at 4:11 AM, raindancewx said: If it is any consolation to you all...WT360 has joined the Weatherbell train and thinks March will be much colder/wetter in much of the South than last year. Some snow into NC/VA. Expand lol, well it wouldnt take much to be colder and wetter than last March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 GFS and CMC both drop some light snow with the clipper, up to a dusting in some areas. They also trended deeper with the clipper digging down and the LP a little closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 On 1/26/2017 at 1:17 AM, Jon said: CFS doing CFS things again, expect colder run on monthly website tomorrow morning. Expand If a true sustained Greenland block is realized, that would be the outcome. However, as we know , not likely with the roaring +QBO and Pac. State. It is possible it's picking up on the impending SSW thus the depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 the clipper may give central nc more snow accum than the last event if it can overperform. we have seen these be a nice surprise in the past so its def worth watching over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 This is still not supported by ensembles. Until I see that I am not buying snow for ATL or anywhere downwind of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 On 1/26/2017 at 1:41 PM, DopplerWx said: the clipper may give central nc more snow accum than the last event if it can overperform. we have seen these be a nice surprise in the past so its def worth watching over the next few days. Expand I'm thinking we just want something to keep showing on the models. Then we'll have to wait until the actual event to see how this materializes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 On 1/26/2017 at 1:49 PM, FallsLake said: I'm thinking we just want something to keep showing on the models. Then we'll have to wait until the actual event to see how this materializes. Expand Yep, that's how these things work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 On 1/26/2017 at 1:43 PM, Cheeznado said: This is still not supported by ensembles. Until I see that I am not buying snow for ATL or anywhere downwind of the mountains. Expand This most likely will be their last chance to see flurries until next January! Let them dream! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 On 1/26/2017 at 1:57 PM, mackerel_sky said: This most likely will be their last chance to see flurries until January 2019! Let them dream! Expand Fixed...next winter is another +QBO so no HLB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 On 1/26/2017 at 2:36 PM, packbacker said: Fixed...next winter is another +QBO so no HLB. Expand It's probably a weak Nino though. I'm not sure the correlation between weak Nino and positive QBO. I do know 06-07 was but so was 04-05 which was a much better winter than 06-07. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 The GEFS/GEPS don't look horrible in the LR. Haven't looked at any individual members, but the means show a fairly typical winter pattern, it looks like to me. I don't see anything scary, although I don' see a big snowstorm pattern either. I also can't see the EPS after 240, so they may be completely different. As far as the indexes go: AO - split pos vs. neg. in the LR NAO - looks to rise solidly pos PNA - looks to remain pos MJO - mixed bag: UK/CMC/some Euro members bring it around to phases 3/4, while the USA takes it through 2, into the COD, and remerges in phases 7-8. How does the CFS look today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 On 1/26/2017 at 2:43 PM, SnowGoose69 said: It's probably a weak Nino though. I'm not sure the correlation between weak Nino and positive QBO. I do know 06-07 was but so was 04-05 which was a much better winter than 06-07. Expand Was thinking 91 and 93 might be closest matches, assuming weak +enso and +qbo. I thought 07 was cold in Feb but if we blend those 3 it's not pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 On 1/26/2017 at 2:58 PM, packbacker said: Was thinking 91 and 93 might be closest matches, assuming weak +enso and +qbo. I thought 07 was cold in Feb but if we blend those 3 it's not pretty. Expand The problem was the AMO and the Pacific were in different states in 91 and 93 then they are today. I'm not sure the El Niño would behave the same. 89-93 also had zero blocking for the most part. El Ninos as a whole largely behaved bizarrely for the east coast in the 80s and 90s with the exception of 87-88. That went against history as well as most El Ninos since which are usually favorable for the eastern us assuming they aren't overly strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 On 1/26/2017 at 3:02 PM, SnowGoose69 said: The problem was the AMO and the Pacific were in different states in 91 and 93 then they are today. I'm not sure the El Niño would behave the same. 89-93 also had zero blocking for the most part. Expand Agree...but warm analogs are winning the past 10-15 years. For the SE since 04 we have had 9 AN winters, 3 BN and 1 neutral. Not sure what it's going to change that type of spread but the 3 BN winters were all blocky. Not a lot of support for HLB even with a +enso with this crap qbo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 On 1/26/2017 at 3:09 PM, packbacker said: Agree...but warm analogs are winning the past 10-15 years. For the SE since 04 we have had 9 AN winters, 3 BN and 1 neutral. Not sure what it's going to change that type of spread but the 3 BN winters were all blocky. Not a lot of support for HLB even with a +enso with this crap qbo. Expand There really have been some strange things. GA/SC not seeing any major winter storm in 02-03 and 15-16 yet seeing major events in 10-11 and 16-17 which were La Niñas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 It would be nice to understand why warm analogs are winning. It's got to be due somehow to climate change. But it would be nice to have some better understanding around this, as it would allow us to refine our analogging process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 On 1/26/2017 at 3:16 PM, Cold Rain said: It would be nice to understand why warm analogs are winning. It's got to be due somehow to climate change. But it would be nice to have some better understanding around this, as it would allow us to refine our analogging process. Expand JB finally broke out the anal logs today, and the gefs and cfsv2, to get his cold February point across! We are doomed! He has as many purple and green cold maps as Pack has red hot torchy ones!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 On 1/26/2017 at 3:16 PM, Cold Rain said: It would be nice to understand why warm analogs are winning. It's got to be due somehow to climate change. But it would be nice to have some better understanding around this, as it would allow us to refine our analogging process. Expand The warm AMO I believe is a big reason why. Many of the SE US cities show a distinct correlation to colder and snowier winters in the cold AMO. The recent years are behaving quite a bit like the 1940s and 1950s. The AMO seems to have less of an impact in New England and the MA where it seems the major difference is the severity of the cold when it gets very cold. Most of NYC's sub 5 degree temps occur during the cold AMO phase. I believe the colder AMO also tends to favor less amping up of storm systems which results in flatter weaker activity which favors the SE and southern MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 On 1/26/2017 at 3:23 PM, SnowGoose69 said: The warm AMO I believe is a big reason why. Many of the SE US cities show a distinct correlation to colder and snowier winters in the cold AMO. The recent years are behaving quite a bit like the 1940s and 1950s. The AMO seems to have less of an impact in New England and the MA where it seems the major difference is the severity of the cold when it gets very cold. Most of NYC's sub 5 degree temps occur during the cold AMO phase Expand Yep...NAO drives our winters down here so no surprise the cold AMO period reflected -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 Snow goose is always making great well informed posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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