SnowNiner Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 No blocking is no bueno. High go bye bye. Maybe the blocking in week 4 of the weeklies and the CFS will show up and save us. Or maybe it'll come in April like it normally does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 On 1/20/2017 at 7:08 PM, FallsLake said: But there would be surface temps in the teens at RDU. The in situ cad would work. **talking hypothetically at hour 384 Expand In situ almost always changes to rain, but in extreme situations, like 384 GFS land, it often does work. Even if we were to get some front end ice out of that, we'd take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 On 1/20/2017 at 7:17 PM, Cold Rain said: In situ almost always changes to rain, but in extreme situations, like 384 GFS land, it often does work. Even if we were to get some front end ice out of that, we'd take it! Expand We had a situation (last year / two years back???, memory is foggy) where we were suppose to have front end ice, then jump above freezing, and have mostly rain. We started off so cold by the time the temp approached freezing the precip had ended. I'm in the mind set of -> lets get the cold air and then see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 On 1/20/2017 at 6:58 PM, WarmNose said: That's how you get snow south of I-85..look at that high placement..the sad thing is when the storm finally gets here, that high will be halfway to Portugal Expand wouldn't it be nice if we could get a locked in high and a really slow moving system for once? It always seems like the highs never remain in place anymore and virtually always the low is screaming along at 60 to 80mph. For once it would be nice to get one that just inched along and lasted a few days instead of a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 On 1/20/2017 at 7:25 PM, FallsLake said: We had a situation (last year / two years back???, memory is foggy) where we were suppose to have front end ice, then jump above freezing, and have mostly rain. We started off so cold by the time the temp approached freezing the precip had ended. I'm in the mind set of -> lets get the cold air and then see what happens. Expand yeah I think the last couple years, the high has headed out but there was just enough remnants of the CAD to keep us frozen. The CADS have always had our backs the last few years. They've always trended colder and colder... And if CR would just take his snowshields off everybody would get their stinkin snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 On 1/20/2017 at 7:31 PM, Lookout said: wouldn't it be nice if we could get a locked in high and a really slow moving system for once? It always seems like the highs never remain in place anymore and virtually always the low is screaming along at 60 to 80mph. For once it would be nice to get one that just inched along and lasted a few days instead of a few hours. Expand + NAO FTL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 On 1/20/2017 at 7:33 PM, SnowNiner said: yeah I think the last couple years, the high has headed out but there was just enough remnants of the CAD to keep us frozen. The CADS have always had our backs the last few years. They've always trended colder and colder... And if CR would just take his snowshields off everybody would get their stinkin snow. Expand The last time I tried to manipulate the snow shields, we had a disastrous winter. We have to let the snow bring the shields down. By the way, how did the Euro look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 On 1/20/2017 at 7:44 PM, Cold Rain said: The last time I tried to manipulate the snow shields, we had a disastrous winter. We have to let the snow bring the shields down. By the way, how did the Euro look? Expand He 240 is worth keeping an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 On 1/20/2017 at 7:09 PM, SnowNiner said: No blocking is no bueno. High go bye bye. Maybe the blocking in week 4 of the weeklies and the CFS will show up and save us. Or maybe it'll come in April like it normally does. Expand Didn't have one for Sleetfest '17 at Cold_Rains and Bricks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 On 1/20/2017 at 7:44 PM, Cold Rain said: The last time I tried to manipulate the snow shields, we had a disastrous winter. We have to let the snow bring the shields down. By the way, how did the Euro look? Expand On 1/20/2017 at 7:53 PM, BristowWx said: He 240 is worth keeping an eye on. Expand Euro wasn't bad, but I was going to say something like, "pray over the weekend that the GFS is a better model than the Euro" GFS is much more amplified with the ridge up thru W Canada into E Alaska Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 For those interested, JB shows how the SOI can effect our weather in his free video today. Well worth watching in my opinion. https://www.facebook.com/weatherbellanalytics/videos/1380543615344150/ And I also found a website that shows the recent and historic SOI data: https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 On 1/20/2017 at 7:31 PM, Lookout said: wouldn't it be nice if we could get a locked in high and a really slow moving system for once? It always seems like the highs never remain in place anymore and virtually always the low is screaming along at 60 to 80mph. For once it would be nice to get one that just inched along and lasted a few days instead of a few hours. Expand Now that would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 On 1/20/2017 at 7:55 PM, mackerel_sky said: Didn't have one for Sleetfest '17 at Cold_Rains and Bricks! Expand Yeah that wasn't a CAD I don't think. Just cold from the mid-west pressing down. A little late for most of us I might add. I got a couple inches so I can't complain too much though. If we would have had even a little wedging in that storm I think it would have made a big difference for everybody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 On 1/20/2017 at 5:54 PM, mackerel_sky said: That is really what an old fashioned Southern snow used to look like!!! And there's a wedge sig out in front! She's a beaut Clark Expand To bad its February 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 On 1/20/2017 at 9:59 PM, fritschy said: To bad its February 5th. Expand On 1/20/2017 at 9:59 PM, fritschy said: To bad its February 5th. Expand Yeah, we've almost gained and hour of daylight since the winter solstice! And the sun angle is basically the same as September! Winter cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 On 1/20/2017 at 9:59 PM, fritschy said: To bad its February 5th. Expand About equals the date of the biggest snowstorm ever down here (too bad it was 1899 and it may have been a once in a 500 year event, but it was a storm in February - my Great-Grandfather used to tell me stories about how the cows didn't know what the drifts on the fences were, how the cows tried to walk up the drifts and got tangled in fence wire and froze) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 CMC (12z) looks good at 240! Some energy in New Mexico and some diving through Colorado, on the back side of a giant , cold high pressure!! Roll that forward 2 days, amazeballs ! The EPS looked good also!? Cold and troughy over the East! #EXCITED! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 On 1/20/2017 at 10:17 PM, mackerel_sky said: CMC (12z) looks good at 240! Some energy in New Mexico and some diving through Colorado, on the back side of a giant , cold high pressure!! Roll that forward 2 days, amazeballs ! The EPS looked good also!? Cold and troughy over the East! #EXCITED! Expand Is this Mack 2.0? CMC and Euro are kind of meh. GFS is where it's at. 18z run has a nearly perfect looking deep diving northern stream wave into the TN Valley and SE at day 9-10....snow breaking out over a lot of the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 On 1/20/2017 at 10:46 PM, griteater said: Is this Mack 2.0? CMC and Euro are kind of meh. GFS is where it's at. 18z run has a nearly perfect looking deep diving northern stream wave into the TN Valley and SE at day 9-10....snow breaking out over a lot of the SE Expand Plus 540s down to the gulf of mexico, 516s digging into AL/MS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 On 1/20/2017 at 10:50 PM, JoshM said: Plus 540s down to the gulf of mexico, 516s digging into AL/MS! Expand Yeah that trough dug deeeep! The base almost in the North Western portions of the Gulf before it settles east. Not a bad run. A bit juicier as Griteater pointed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 On 1/20/2017 at 10:17 PM, mackerel_sky said: CMC (12z) looks good at 240! Some energy in New Mexico and some diving through Colorado, on the back side of a giant , cold high pressure!! Roll that forward 2 days, amazeballs ! The EPS looked good also!? Cold and troughy over the East! #EXCITED! Expand Well that dreaded sun angle is going to kill it so you might as well get over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 On 1/20/2017 at 5:37 PM, mackerel_sky said: Y'all remember last storm, and we all said , atleast we don't have to worry about cold air!??? Ahh , the good old days, when warm noses and NW trends, were nonexistent! Expand the nw trend was good for me in the last storm, started out 13 weather said Asheville would be lucky to get 1-3 and probably the low side of that and I ended up with 7 inches, Jason didn't think the storm would trend that much nw but it surely did. He did come around the day of the storm and put Asheville in the 3-6 range, all and all Jason does pretty good I guess. Seems there is always 98 percent of the time a nw trend to most of the storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 On 1/21/2017 at 12:43 AM, fritschy said: the nw trend was good for me in the last storm, started out 13 weather said Asheville would be lucky to get 1-3 and probably the low side of that and I ended up with 7 inches, Jason didn't think the storm would trend that much nw but it surely did. He did come around the day of the storm and put Asheville in the 3-6 range, all and all Jason does pretty good I guess. Seems there is always 98 percent of the time a nw trend to most of the storms. Expand It's kind of hard to only put 1 to 3 inches when the NWS has a winter storm warning out for you for like 5 to 7 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 On 1/20/2017 at 10:46 PM, griteater said: Is this Mack 2.0? CMC and Euro are kind of meh. GFS is where it's at. 18z run has a nearly perfect looking deep diving northern stream wave into the TN Valley and SE at day 9-10....snow breaking out over a lot of the SE Expand One problem, it's the GFS! Until others get on board, meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 12z para , has the low about over Cozumel on the 4th! Looking good! What's wrong with New Orleans having more snow than me this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 On 1/21/2017 at 1:06 AM, mackerel_sky said: 12z para , has the low about over Cozumel on the 4th! Looking good! What's wrong with New Orleans having more snow than me this winter! Expand We can have our next meet up @ mardi gras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timothy Clyde Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Good and bad news. Pattern is really favoring a colder outlook with clipper systems and n-w flow snow for the southern Appalachian mountains. It is possible a light to moderate super clipper could occur but we won't know that until very close to the event. The bad, well, we are really washing things out this as we draw January to a close with a significant severe weather maker across the South. I believe the problem will be lack of moisture with the cold air at night. I still very much rule out late Jan and early Feb. If we can score a coop, with moisture, I still expect in to be mid Feb or after. Not the first week of the month. No way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 On 1/21/2017 at 2:02 AM, Timothy Clyde said: Good and bad news. Pattern is really favoring a colder outlook with clipper systems and n-w flow snow for the southern Appalachian mountains. It is possible a light to moderate super clipper could occur but we won't know that until very close to the event. The bad, well, we are really washing things out this as we draw January to a close with a significant severe weather maker across the South. I believe the problem will be lack of moisture with the cold air at night. I still very much rule out late Jan and early Feb. If we can score a coop, with moisture, I still expect in to be mid Feb or after. Not the first week of the month. No way. Expand As long as that coop is full of snow, I'm in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 On 1/21/2017 at 2:02 AM, Timothy Clyde said: Good and bad news. Pattern is really favoring a colder outlook with clipper systems and n-w flow snow for the southern Appalachian mountains. It is possible a light to moderate super clipper could occur but we won't know that until very close to the event. The bad, well, we are really washing things out this as we draw January to a close with a significant severe weather maker across the South. I believe the problem will be lack of moisture with the cold air at night. I still very much rule out late Jan and early Feb. If we can score a coop, with moisture, I still expect in to be mid Feb or after. Not the first week of the month. No way. Expand lol, well winter is usually over by Mid Feb here so I guess winter is over here. Maybe you folks in VA and northward will get lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 On 1/21/2017 at 2:07 AM, Snowless in Carrollton said: lol, well winter is usually over by Mid Feb here so I guess winter is over here. Maybe you folks in VA and northward will get lucky. Expand Its all a coup; don't fly the coop yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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