mackerel_sky Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 6z GFS is close to glory on the 29th!!!! nice storm track, NW trend, temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 On 1/19/2017 at 11:04 AM, mackerel_sky said: 6z GFS is close to glory on the 29th!!!! nice storm track, NW trend, temps? Expand You know it's gonna wait for a Tim C event..... Second week of FEB, NO SOONER!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Congrats, Mid Atlantic, NE!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 ^ Might get some slightly breezy conditions with that one, Frosty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 On 1/19/2017 at 1:05 PM, Cold Rain said: ^ Might get some slightly breezy conditions with that one, Frosty. Expand I cant think of too many times we've had a 976 low in york county, SC at 102. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 So about that PNA ridge with aleutian low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 On 1/19/2017 at 1:05 PM, Cold Rain said: ^ Might get some slightly breezy conditions with that one, Frosty. Expand Yep, Just backside windy and cold for us!!! Probably be a monster Noreaster though!!! JB said snow from WV on north in mountains, may be rain in the big cities in the Mid Atlantic and NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 On 1/19/2017 at 1:11 PM, packbacker said: So about that PNA ridge with aleutian low. Expand No SER in that picture! Good CAD setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 On 1/19/2017 at 1:11 PM, Queencitywx said: I cant think of too many times we've had a 976 low in york county, SC at 102. Expand Yep, very rare indeed. You have to think its overdone, but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 On 1/19/2017 at 1:17 PM, Cold Rain said: Yep, very rare indeed. You have to think its overdone, but who knows. Expand That wouldn't be good for the MA as well. Temps up high and low not good. Maybe interior NE once it moves northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 On 1/19/2017 at 1:16 PM, Cold Rain said: No SER in that picture! Good CAD setup. Expand Gefs, is the model of choice today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Looking at the ensembles at this point, I think what's coming at the end of January is no more than a transient cold shot which is gone by the end of the first week in February. The trough moves through, and that's it...ridging builds back in the SE. I hope I'm wrong and our unicorn the SSW helps us out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 On 1/19/2017 at 1:11 PM, Queencitywx said: I cant think of too many times we've had a 976 low in york county, SC at 102. Expand This is approaching the superstorm 93 strength if it verifies. I'm not sure how low the pressure with that system got while it was over the Carolinas, but I think it was down to 961MB off the Delaware coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 On 1/19/2017 at 1:17 PM, Cold Rain said: Yep, very rare indeed. You have to think its overdone, but who knows. Expand Who cares about this minor Fropa on Sunday, where's our snow?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 I think his MJO analogs have been good so far this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 On 1/19/2017 at 1:50 PM, mackerel_sky said: Who cares about this minor Fropa on Sunday, where's our snow?? Expand I'll agree, I'm glad we're going to get the rain, we need it, but where is our snow, I'm trying to wait out this boring weather but it just keeps going on and on and on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 On 1/19/2017 at 2:07 PM, packbacker said: I think his MJO analogs have been good so far this winter. Expand Yeah he's good with that stuff Pack. So he's suggesting that a -EPO will have longer legs thru Feb....but with +NAO being a deterrent for driving the cold deep into the SE (though it could be a lot worse). It looks like his forecast is based on tropical forcing and likely doesn't incorporate any minor or major SSW effects, if there are any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 I would agree that it doesn't look like the majority of the SE is going to go into the freezer for an entire month. It does look like the cold air will be really close by (unlike our current pattern) and someone could score pretty easily. It is still undecided how far south the PV is going to drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 The 6z GFS at 216 looks quite threatening of a huge phasing event. If the southern s/w were just a little less + tilt and more neutral, this would be bombing low in the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 yeah 'wow', some of these latest models runs have been close to giving us a storm...steep ridge with energy diving south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 On 1/19/2017 at 2:32 PM, griteater said: yeah 'wow', some of these latest models runs have been close to giving us a storm...steep ridge with energy diving south Expand Yes. Big phasing events can be good for the western parts of our region as long as it happens far enough south. The lack of a strong PV (but enough cold air to work with) allows the jets to phase more easily. I think the late Jan period will be a stormy one for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 I do like the look the of the GEFS in the extended...stout -EPO connecting to scand. ridge which should help shove the PV south, looks to be active with energy out in the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 The unicorn phase bomb, looks even less likely at 12z, and it would be too warm anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Head up to the mtns Mack to see you some snow...never seen such a clipper parade as the 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 12z gfs...brrr! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 On 1/19/2017 at 4:51 PM, griteater said: Head up to the mtns Mack to see you some snow...never seen such a clipper parade as the 12z Expand Nothing for us low land folks to get excited about now, but we'll have to keep an eye on each one as the time gets closer. They can and have produced decent events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 On 1/19/2017 at 4:54 PM, packfan98 said: 12z gfs...brrr! Expand At the end of the run it almost looks like a repeat setup of the last event. But out in fantasy land.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 On 1/19/2017 at 4:56 PM, FallsLake said: Nothing for us low land folks to get excited about now, but we'll have to keep an eye on each one as the time gets closer. They can and have produced decent events. Expand Agree Falls. Steep! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 On 1/19/2017 at 5:02 PM, griteater said: Agree Falls. Steep! Expand Cold and dry! Awesome then warm up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Parade of clippers on the GFS would establish the cold in the east and set the stage for a big dog down the road! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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