griteater Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Euro is setting us up for a storm after 240, ha. Weak wave over Cali in split flow with cold air filtering in behind low moving into the MA/NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 On 1/16/2017 at 7:08 PM, griteater said: Euro is setting us up for a storm after 240, ha. Weak wave over Cali in split flow with cold air filtering in behind low moving into the MA/NE Expand Lol looks a lot like the setup we just had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 On 1/16/2017 at 7:28 PM, Met1985 said: Lol looks a lot like the setup we just had. Expand Yeah, and it got worse as we got closer! Need the cold here first, always! I'll take my chances w/ stale cold air and possible in - situ wedge, anything but what we had last time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Euro Ens is coming in a little colder than the cold Canadian Ens run (beginning late next week)....it's a classic +PNA look. Verbatim it's cold and dry which is just fine for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Here comes the squall line,right on schedule. On Sunday/Day 7, the upper-level trough is forecast to move into the central Gulf Coast States as moisture advection takes place ahead of the system. A severe weather threat will be possible across the eastern Gulf Coast States northward into the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Euro Ens 10-15 day avg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 EPS shows Aleutian ridge developing and pac low evaporating. Very +NAO with cold/dry setting up, big area of LP over the NW atlantic. Question is what happens with the pattern after this. Does a new pac low form affirming the pac ridge and maybe it finally hooks over the top shoving the PV towards SE Canada.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 On 1/16/2017 at 8:57 PM, packbacker said: EPS shows Aleutian ridge developing and pac low evaporating. Very +NAO with cold/dry setting up, big area of LP over the NW atlantic. Question is what happens with the pattern after this. Does a new pac low form affirming the the pac ridge and maybe it finally hooks over the top shoving the PV towards SE Canada.. Expand That is a cold and dry look. The trough axis is too far east The mountains may get some clipper action out of that, but for us to score big, we need the trough axis along the Mississippi River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 On 1/16/2017 at 9:04 PM, CAD_Wedge_NC said: That is a cold and dry look. The trough axis is too far east The mountains may get some clipper action out of that, but for us to score big, we need the trough axis along the Mississippi River. Expand Its definitely not a snowy look...but for the folks that want snow it's a good first step to get cold first. Didn't someone on this board say wait until after the 10th...they might be right. It wasn't me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 On 1/16/2017 at 9:06 PM, packbacker said: Its definitely not a snowy look...but for the folks that want snow it's a good first step to get cold first. Didn't someone on this board say wait until after the 10th...they might be right. It wasn't me. Expand The Clyde model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 On 1/16/2017 at 9:45 PM, CaryWx said: The Clyde model? Expand lol, Timmy may be the best Met around!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 On 1/16/2017 at 9:54 PM, BIG FROSTY said: lol, Timmy may be the best Met around!! Expand No, he said that it would not even get cold for another 4-5 weeks and he was closing his laptop until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Way too early to worry about cold and dry. Let's change the Pacific back from this western trough disaster then worry about individual s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Give me a ridge out west and I'd take my chances with the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 On 1/16/2017 at 10:37 PM, franklin NCwx said: Way too early to worry about cold and dry. Let's change the Pacific back from this western trough disaster then worry about individual s/w. Expand On 1/16/2017 at 10:37 PM, LithiaWx said: Give me a ridge out west and I'd take my chances with the rest. Expand Yep I agree fellas. Way too soon to speculate at this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 On 1/16/2017 at 9:06 PM, packbacker said: Its definitely not a snowy look...but for the folks that want snow it's a good first step to get cold first. Didn't someone on this board say wait until after the 10th...they might be right. It wasn't me. Expand There is always the chance of something cutting in underneath the ridge. The southern stream obviously hasn't been the Pineapple Express this winter, but you can always get something coming out of there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 On 1/16/2017 at 10:37 PM, LithiaWx said: Give me a ridge out west and I'd take my chances with the rest. Expand Lithia prose? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 The 18z looked good for the most part but the problem is we are working with a marginal cold airm mass. The cold never really dives down deep. The trough looks look but just not cold enough to my eye. The eps is colder and has been very consistent though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 18z had some snow in New Orleans and Biloxi, we're good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Here's where my money is: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 On 1/16/2017 at 11:09 PM, Met1985 said: The 18z looked good for the most part but the problem is we are working with a marginal cold airm mass. The cold never really dives down deep. The trough looks look but just not cold enough to my eye. The eps is colder and has been very consistent though. Expand Sounds familiar to Fishel's blog the other day. Set is there but no real arctic air to draw on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 On 1/16/2017 at 11:12 PM, griteater said: 18z had some snow in New Orleans and Biloxi, we're good Expand At what hour? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 On 1/16/2017 at 11:30 PM, CaryWx said: At what hour?Sometime after 300 lol. Suppressed system in the gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 On 1/16/2017 at 11:29 PM, CaryWx said: Sounds familiar to Fishel's blog the other day. Set is there but no real arctic air to draw on. Expand Yeah its real early though. I'm not about to start posting 240 hour and post 300 hour maps calling that the gospel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 On 1/16/2017 at 11:29 PM, CaryWx said: Sounds familiar to Fishel's blog the other day. Set is there but no real arctic air to draw on.I don't think he'd say that based on today's Euro Ens. 850 0 deg running from GA coast to Austin Tex. Not sure you can ask for more from an Ens mean way out in time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 I think the GEFS is on the more correct path. If you want potential I think day 12+ looks pretty good. I like it better then the EPS or GEPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 From the old bathtub Met- GEFS Corrects, But Not Enough, and Here is Why There has obviously been a big change for the better IMO as far as accuracy in the GEFS from this yesterday... Lot of text in between I left out but you get the jest of what he's saying! .....When I look at the day 15 Euro, and even though the GEFS is 36 hour later here. I have a tough time believing the euro is going to bust this much on the western ridge and GOA trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 On 1/16/2017 at 11:42 PM, packbacker said: I think the GEFS is on the more correct path. If you want potential I think day 12+ looks pretty good. I like it better then the EPS or GEPS. Expand The eps has been much more consistent in my opinion. Got to go with the consistent model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 On 1/16/2017 at 11:45 PM, BIG FROSTY said: From the old bathtub Met- GEFS Corrects, But Not Enough, and Here is Why There has obviously been a big change for the better IMO as far as accuracy in the GEFS from this yesterday... Lot of text in between I left out but you get the jest of what he's saying! .....When I look at the day 15 Euro, and even though the GEFS is 36 hour later here. I have a tough time believing the euro is going to bust this much on the western ridge and GOA trough Expand Yeah it has been very consistent as I just alluded too. It may not be the best look but it's cold and has been for several runs. It's almost step for step with the weeklies of last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 On 1/16/2017 at 11:49 PM, Met1985 said: The eps has been much more consistent in my opinion. Got to go with the consistent model. Expand Good luck with that. Let's post them up and see who wins....differences are glaring. EPS is all in with PAC low and +PNA and GEFS goes back to a more nina look with poleward aleutian ridge and neutral PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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