Met1985 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 On 1/12/2017 at 5:42 PM, mackerel_sky said: The 12Z GFS is horrible , just turrible! Those temp anomalies maps for next week, across the whole country and Canada, would bring a tear to Packs eye! I know not to look at op runs, when a pattern is in flux, but that pattern looks like flush!! I think they may have to come up with a few new colors of heat for that map! But, the 384 hour storm is money! Don't worry about details at this point...... Expand It is not a bad pattern from around the 26th onwards which is in the neighborhood at what the weeklies are showing. But it is a ways away so might as well enjoy the weather we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Alchemist Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 On 1/12/2017 at 5:42 PM, mackerel_sky said: The 12Z GFS is horrible , just turrible! Those temp anomalies maps for next week, across the whole country and Canada, would bring a tear to Packs eye! I know not to look at op runs, when a pattern is in flux, but that pattern looks like flush!! I think they may have to come up with a few new colors of heat for that map! But, the 384 hour storm is money! Don't worry about details at this point...... Expand Learning Lurker here, Where would one get images of the DWD-ICON? How far out does it run? With the pattern in flux I'd like to compare it to GFS/Euro (or have someone with much more knowledge chime in)... I'd rather not have 384 verify, daughter's big fundraiser is that weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 On 1/12/2017 at 5:42 PM, mackerel_sky said: The 12Z GFS is horrible , just turrible! Those temp anomalies maps for next week, across the whole country and Canada, would bring a tear to Packs eye! I know not to look at op runs, when a pattern is in flux, but that pattern looks like flush!! I think they may have to come up with a few new colors of heat for that map! But, the 384 hour storm is money! Don't worry about details at this point...... Expand Great run of the GEFS...trend has been to push back any cold. Whoops.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcallostormy Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 On 1/12/2017 at 5:14 PM, Snowless in Carrollton said: I'm not sure Atlanta has ever had a double digit snowfall. Since 1940, the biggest snowfall is 8", which proves my point that Atlanta is in the worst possible location for snow in the US outside of places like Florida and southern California. Columbia, Birmingham, Dallas, San Antonio, etc have all seen double digit snow in the last 40 or so years. Expand Since 1936, Birmingham has has 3 double digits snows: 10 inches in 1936, 11 inches in 1940, and 13 inches in 1993. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 On 1/12/2017 at 5:42 PM, mackerel_sky said: The 12Z GFS is horrible , just turrible! Those temp anomalies maps for next week, across the whole country and Canada, would bring a tear to Packs eye! I know not to look at op runs, when a pattern is in flux, but that pattern looks like flush!! I think they may have to come up with a few new colors of heat for that map! But, the 384 hour storm is money! Don't worry about details at this point...... Expand We already know the next couple of weeks are going to mostly suck. Look, we're already starting to move the change closer. Now all the way up to 348! Oh, and for Pack: The GEFS will come around to the Op's idea soon enough. MONEY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 On 1/12/2017 at 5:46 PM, tarheelwx said: All in on 384! TW Expand All I see on the 384 is a big SW cold press with pronounced SER and cold chasing moisture. You're all in for that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 On 1/12/2017 at 6:11 PM, The Alchemist said: Learning Lurker here, Where would one get images of the DWD-ICON? How far out does it run? With the pattern in flux I'd like to compare it to GFS/Euro (or have someone with much more knowledge chime in)... I'd rather not have 384 verify, daughter's big fundraiser is that weekend. Expand You can get the ICON here (it only goes out to 78 hrs) - http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=fr&mod=dwd_icon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcallostormy Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 On 1/12/2017 at 6:24 PM, mcallostormy said: Since 1936, Birmingham has has 3 double digits snows: 10 inches in 1936, 11 inches in 1940, and 13 inches in 1993. Expand Overall though Atlanta averages 2.2 inches per year to B'ham's 1.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
philconnors Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 On 1/12/2017 at 6:53 PM, mcallostormy said: Overall though Atlanta averages 2.2 inches per year to B'ham's 1.5. Expand Grew up in ATL live in Bham. Atlanta is 30 miles further north than bham and about 4-600 feet higher. Bham is not a good place to be for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 On 1/12/2017 at 7:28 PM, philconnors said: Grew up in ATL live in Bham. Atlanta is 30 miles further north than bham and about 4-600 feet higher. Bham is not a good place to be for snow. Expand Yet somehow Birmingham gets bigger snows than Atlanta and so does Columbia for that matter. I think the ATL airport is probably only 5-10 miles further north than the BHM airport. ATL airport is on southside of town, BHAM airport is on northside of town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 On 1/11/2017 at 10:21 PM, Snowless in Carrollton said: Yep that sun angle is increasing a little more each day and the days are already noticeably longer. Spring will be here soon. Expand Yeah....happens every year just like clockwork doesn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 On 1/12/2017 at 7:47 PM, tonysc said: Yeah....happens every year just like clockwork doesn't it? Expand I actually like the longer days. I don't like it being dark by 6pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Most +QBO / Cool ENSO winters have a North Pacific high/ridge that reaches poleward into Alaska or the Bering Strait (in contrast, most -QBO/Cool ENSO winters also have a North Pac high, but the high tends to NOT reach poleward into AK, and therefore, doesn't dislodge as much arctic air). On the left is the 500mb pattern we've seen thus far for winter...on the right are all +QBO/Cool ENSO winters (Dec-Mar) that featured a poleward North Pacific High <and> a positive or neutral NAO. It's a good match overall. Here are the 500mb patterns for Jan/Feb/Mar, for the 5 +QBO/Cool ENSO/+ or neutral NAO analog winters And here are the corresponding temperature departure maps Finally, for the 5 analog (Mack's favorite word) winters, here is the sum total snowfall for those winters, for the sites noted. Chart on the left is sum total for Raleigh + Charlotte + GSP. Chart on the right is sum total for Greensboro + Catawba (near Hickory) + Asheville. Bottom Line: the 500mb pattern thus far this winter has been a good match for +QBO/Cool ENSO/+ or Neutral NAO analog winters. Going forward, the analogs are favoring a warm January (matches current ensemble forecasts), and a February that would offer an improved pattern for possible cold interludes and winter storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Nice info, Grit. Very well done! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 On 1/12/2017 at 7:54 PM, Snowless in Carrollton said: I actually like the longer days. I don't like it being dark by 6pm. Expand Oh yeah so do I. I especially love getting a good daytime snowstorm in mid Feb. when we have longer daylight to see it fall. And a couple of the coldest snowstorms I can remember came in mid Feb. I mean 15 degrees all day long with heavy snow and sleet, you don't see that much in the South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Love when Grit tweets out this...this takes us to the 19th. This may be one of our warmest Januarys in a long time...well since our last crappy nina's of 12 and 13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 LOL at the dialog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 On 1/12/2017 at 9:01 PM, packbacker said: Love when Grit tweets out this...this takes us to the 19th. This may be one of our warmest Januarys in a long time...well since our last crappy nina's of 12 and 13. Expand Ninas blow....but sometimes we get lucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 On 1/12/2017 at 7:59 PM, griteater said: Most +QBO / Cool ENSO winters have a North Pacific high/ridge that reaches poleward into Alaska or the Bering Strait (in contrast, most -QBO/Cool ENSO winters also have a North Pac high, but the high tends to NOT reach poleward into AK, and therefore, doesn't dislodge as much arctic air). On the left is the 500mb pattern we've seen thus far for winter...on the right are all +QBO/Cool ENSO winters (Dec-Mar) that featured a poleward North Pacific High <and> a positive or neutral NAO. It's a good match overall. Here are the 500mb patterns for Jan/Feb/Mar, for the 5 +QBO/Cool ENSO/+ or neutral NAO analog winters And here are the corresponding temperature departure maps Finally, for the 5 analog (Mack's favorite word) winters, here is the sum total snowfall for those winters, for the sites noted. Chart on the left is sum total for Raleigh + Charlotte + GSP. Chart on the right is sum total for Greensboro + Catawba (near Hickory) + Asheville. Bottom Line: the 500mb pattern thus far this winter has been a good match for +QBO/Cool ENSO/+ or Neutral NAO analog winters. Going forward, the analogs are favoring a warm January (matches current ensemble forecasts), and a February that would offer an improved pattern for possible cold interludes and winter storms. Expand Wow, great information Grit! How do you do that?! it does look spot on right now and matches fairly well. Nice to see that even in those analogs, February is the snowiest month! And how nice to see that many, even in less than favorable conditions, are on the board in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 On 1/12/2017 at 9:10 PM, griteater said: Ninas blow....but sometimes we get lucky Expand Wonder if we are headed down a Jan one hit wonder type winter (2000/2002) and rest of winter is forgettable. 67 and 72 are interesting for Feb though. For now the weather feels great...should for next couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 On 1/12/2017 at 9:46 PM, packbacker said: Wonder if we are headed down a Jan one hit wonder type winter (2000/2002) and rest of winter is forgettable. 67 and 72 are interesting for Feb though. For now the weather feels great...should for next couple of weeks. Expand The Weeklies will save winter here in about an hour ^ Thanks CR and Niner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 On 1/12/2017 at 9:46 PM, packbacker said: Wonder if we are headed down a Jan one hit wonder type winter (2000/2002) and rest of winter is forgettable. 67 and 72 are interesting for Feb though. For now the weather feels great...should for next couple of weeks. Expand Feb 89 and 14 were good too though....and we can cheat on 09 and say the early March 2009 storm occurred at the end of Feb instead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 JB says weeklies are rockin after the 25th, everything is still a go! Threw out a 1967 analog. Says worst of winter still to come in the east! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 On 1/12/2017 at 9:57 PM, griteater said: Feb 89 and 14 were good too though....and we can cheat on 09 and say the early March 2009 storm occurred at the end of Feb instead Expand Feb 89 was great in NC especially north of I-40. The CAD area in SC got a major icestorm From late on Feb 17 into early Feb 19. Much of both NC and SC got decent snow on Feb 23-24, but the best of this was from I-95 and east in NC. Although we did not get a big winter storm in Jan of 1989, I still think the winter as a whole is progressing about like the 89 winter. I missed my Jan call, but I'm sticking to my opinion that things get wintry again in Feb based on how things went back in 89. I'd look for the first big shot of cold air to stay west of the mountains though, but we should get our share of cold and wintry weather from around the 10th on to near the end of Feb. Someone may touch 80 sometime in late Jan or very early Feb too, but I think that the chance for that is small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 On 1/12/2017 at 10:51 PM, mackerel_sky said: JB says weeklies are rockin after the 25th, everything is still a go! Threw out a 1967 analog. Says worst of winter still to come in the east! Expand Gut punch...good thing CFS has been owning the weeklies. #warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 On 1/12/2017 at 10:52 PM, jshetley said: Feb 89 was great in NC especially north of I-40. The CAD area in SC got a major icestorm From late on Feb 17 into early Feb 19. Much of both NC and SC got decent snow on Feb 23-24, but the best of this was from I-95 and east in NC. Although we did not get a big winter storm in Jan of 1989, I still think the winter as a whole is progressing about like the 89 winter. I MISS EVERYTHING, but I'm sticking to my opinion that things get wintry again in Feb based on how things went back in 89. I'd look for the first big shot of cold air to stay west of the mountains though, but we should get our share of cold and wintry weather from around the 10th on to near the end of Feb. Someone may touch 80 sometime in late Jan or very early Feb too, but I think that the chance for that is small. Expand Our 384 GFS storm, is gone on 18Z, but Canada looks super-cold again, we may be rockin by Valentine's Day, if we are lucky!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 On 1/12/2017 at 10:51 PM, mackerel_sky said: JB says weeklies are rockin after the 25th, everything is still a go! Threw out a 1967 analog. Says worst of winter still to come in the east! Expand Given the source, a grain of salt, but ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Hey fellas where can I go to look up past snows in NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 On 1/12/2017 at 11:07 PM, pcbjr said: Given the source, a grain of salt, but ... Expand 67 sticks out as it was mod/strong wQBO post strong Nino and was weak -enso too. We are kind of putting on the cold analog blinders though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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